Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

FairAndUnbiased said:

Iran has the biggest potential in the Middle East due to its geography, population and technology development, and

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. However, because of its potential, we have to accept that Iran is going to be highly independent, its going to project power, and it won't just do what China wants. Saudi Arabia though, just doesn't have the geography, population or technological base to be an independent regional pole the way Iran is.

Iran's circumstances are actually really good. Geographically they control the entire northern shore of the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz, they're impossible to invade due to having a huge country 3x bigger than Ukraine and filled with mountains, and their population is both large and evenly spread in fertile mountain valleys. Iran doesn't have to import food, cars, anything except chips and specialized industrial products. They're located at a critical global junction between South Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia.

This is what Iran looks like. Not what you think when you hear 'Middle East'.

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Iran is basically Afghanistan but on steroids.

When even the world's most powerful military had to leave Afghanistan with tails between their legs after a 20-year-long occupation - Imagine having to deal with a "buffed" Afghanistan with 2.5 times the land size, 2.1 times the population, coupled with a more centralized command and rule by the government and military, plus having more advanced and integrated industrial complex than Afghanistan.

I don't think China will take sides in the Middle East lightly. In fact, I think China will continue to increase its influence in the Middle East to attract Middle Eastern countries to cooperate with China. China hopes that these countries can actively offer prices for cooperation with China. China will try to shape competition among Middle Eastern countries. The country that offers the highest price will cooperate at a deeper level, but the country that offers the lower price can also cooperate at a shallower level. China will not reject any possible partner. Of course, the content of cooperation will change according to the advantages of different countries. And China will not directly intervene in complex conflicts in the Middle East. China prefers to resolve issues through negotiations within the UN system. Since China has the right to choose and take the initiative when cooperating, China can avoid the content of opposing another country in the Middle East in the cooperation agreement.

Let's not kid ourselves. China's joint statement with GCC about those 3 islands along with other things is seen in Iran as a huge betrayal. China picked its side here.

And now you have China's vice premier visiting UAE and Iran over the next few days.

UAE is a huge important market for China that is participating in CBDC, building infrastructure with Huawei product, using Chinese vaccines, joining Chinese space program amongst other things

Similarly, Qatar signed the long term LNG deal with China ahead of its deal with Germany.

Arab countries are also picking China as their partner.

The reality is that since withdraw of US troops from Afghanistan, the region is increasingly looking for someone else to protect them. I don't know if this is necessarily the perfect time for China, since they are dealing with a whole bunch of issues at home. However, they have been forced to take this step because a better one may not come up later.

In the past, Western countries always say that China and Saudi relationship won't reach to a certain point, because China will continue to support Iran. That imo was always nonsense and I will explain further on why China pick sunnis over Iran later. But the reality is now that they have done so and elevated their relationship with Saudis to the highest level, what's preventing them from getting in bed further with the GCC/Arab countries. They've agreed to every major position held by GCC countries and are willing to provide them all the tech and military hardware. What does the West have to offer over this in the long term? They have F-35s? Well, export J-35s will be available in a couple of years. They have burkes, well 052D is now available and it will have hypersonic missiles too. Control of international finance with SWIFT, commodity trading and reserve currency? Well, this is the first step to push the Chinese exchanges to the forefront.

China has a lot of things it needs to do still. I will have to look into Shanghai oil & gas platform to understand how this is setup, but I presume a lot of work to be done here to get all the Arab countries to use it and then to get other Asian countries to trade on this platform. Arab countries will now be paid in Yuan, so they will need places to spend that money and to invest that money. China needs a more robust bond market to invest that money and open up its financial system for foreign investment more. It will need to allow more JV holdings on "strategic" energy sector assets in China. But there is a path here. If China wants Yuan to be bigger and for itself to play a larger role in International financial market, then it needs to improve its tech here and its openness. The importance of the Yuan for oil deal is that it wasn't just limited to oil from Saudis to China. It's encouraging all the largest non Western producers to use Yuan on China's own platform. You think Russians won't have to use this platform eventually? And then, if Australia wants to keep exporting LNG to China, it better use this platform too. Eventually, you get all of ASEAN countries to use it. WTI/Brent are traded a world away. It doesn't make sense for these countries to continue buy oil products from ICE/CME/LME. This is what China wants to build up as alternative. None of this will happen over night. China needs to build these things up.

tphuang said:

Let's not kid ourselves. China's joint statement with GCC about those 3 islands along with other things is seen in Iran as a huge betrayal. China picked its side here.

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Some knee-jerk reactions in that article

Following the issuance of the statement, former Iranian diplomat Abdolreza Faraji Rad told Entekhab news website in Tehran: "It is unlikely that China would be the same for Iran following this statement. I have never imagined before that China would ever take a step against Iran's interests."

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Faraji Rad added: "If this trend in China's behavior continues, in less than a decade, China will cause as much as concern for Iran as America does." The former diplomat also said: "It appears that China has given up its 25-year cooperation deal with Iran."

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The 25-year deal was mostly based that JCPOA would be settled.


A better take. Its not like the backroom talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been sercet :

However, foreign Policy analyst Amir Ali Abolfath tweeted that "warm relations between Saudi Arabia and China will serve Iran's interests if it leads to a reduction in US influence in Saudi Arabia."

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tphuang said:

And now you have China's vice premier visiting UAE and Iran over the next few days.

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Hu is a lame duck. That's more insulting than not sending anyone lol

What are they even going to seriously talk about when he is leaving the Politburo in a few months? Might as well as wait and send the new guy over when he takes charge of his portfolio

Spicy.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the Chinese Ambassador to express its "strong dissatisfaction" with the joint GCC-China statement.

Saying china is picking KSA over Iran is rather silly imho. More wishing thinking than anything. China wants to trade with both and not get involved in west Asia security issues. Unless you want China to follow in the footsteps of beloved US of A. That's much is clear so far. KSA is also not forcing china to pick one or the other.

getready said:

Saying china is picking KSA over Iran is rather silly imho. More wishing thinking than anything. China wants to trade with both and not get involved in west Asia security issues. Unless you want China to follow in the footsteps of beloved US of A. That's much is clear so far. KSA is also not forcing china to pick one or the other.

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Go talk to the Iranians then. They feel slighted
And btw, for the third time already, China doesn't pick sides, it simply gives higher priority to when dealing with certain countries

Overbom said:

Spicy.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the Chinese Ambassador to express its "strong dissatisfaction" with the joint GCC-China statement.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601697933493051392

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getready said:

Saying china is picking KSA over Iran is rather silly imho. More wishing thinking than anything. China wants to trade with both and not get involved in west Asia security issues. That's much is clear so far. KSA is also not forcing china to pick one or the other.

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At the moment in relative terms it looks like big moves are made between arabs and Chinese. But if you look at absolute terms its looks like the arabs just got bumped up higher a couple of places more inline with where Iran was. So it has become a more even playing field between the Persians, Arabs and Chinese.

It's probably more a play to balance the region, in such a way that US security forces are able to leave but without the region falling into chaos. From what i have heard modern Arab army forces are badly trained and managed while Persian Army forces are able to turn the tides in the region. A sudden US withdrawal from west Asia might give Iran a once in a century moment to right all the wrongs done to them during the last century by Arab sponsors of regime change forces.

Overbom said:

Go talk to the Iranians then. They feel slighted

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Lol so? Are they breaking off diplomatic relations with China? Are they going start a cold war with China? Of course not. They dun like China getting close with their regional rival for sure, but They have known china position in this. In the overall big picture, nothing will significantly change .