Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

tphuang

tphuang

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中方支持沙方维护国家安全稳定，强调坚决反对任何干涉沙特内政的行径，反对任何针对沙特平民、民用设施、领土和利益的袭击。

This is apparently one statement from release. If china is wording it's protection of Saudi Arabia this strongly, then it will obviously offer significant help to Saudi military. Not only that, this is also a warning to Iran and America. This imo is very strongly worded.

China offering countries security protection is a very recent thing. The other recent example of this is when they said they will protect Kazakhstan.

We may need to wait a while just to hear about how much they really sold to Saudis.

Found it here, very official
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Overbom

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tphuang said:
中方支持沙方维护国家安全稳定，强调坚决反对任何干涉沙特内政的行径，反对任何针对沙特平民、民用设施、领土和利益的袭击。

This is apparently one statement from release. If china is wording it's protection of Saudi Arabia this strongly, then it will obviously offer significant help to Saudi military. Not only that, this is also a warning to Iran and America. This imo is very strongly worded.
Click to expand...
See point 12 from the Chinese version of the China-GCC joint statement.. Iran getting some Ls here.

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20221210_204617.png

And see Iran's foreign minister immediate response:
IMG_20221210_205046.jpg
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601617042775629824
 
tphuang

tphuang

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Overbom said:
See point 12 from the Chinese version of the China-GCC joint statement.. Iran getting some Ls here.

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View attachment 103237

And see Iran's foreign minister immediate response:
View attachment 103238
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601617042775629824
Click to expand...
Yes, they provided a lot of support here for gcc countries. Not just on Iran, but also Iraq and Palestine also. Good on them. Whatever they need to get support of these countries. F Iran and Israel
 
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Overbom

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tphuang said:
Yes, they provided a lot of support here for gcc countries. Not just on Iran, but also Iraq and Palestine also. Good on them. Whatever they need to get support of these countries. F Iran and Israel
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I have nothing personal against Iran, but the problem for them when dealing with China is that they bring way too little to the table.

The Arabs can offer huge quantities of oil, huge wealthy markets, huge geographical position, wrestle them away from America's influence, huge buyers of military equipment, huge customers of physical and digital infradtructure etc.

In comparison, Iran has way too little to offer. Even with JCPOA, they have messed up and played up the heroes. China wanted Iran to get unsanctioned, and then get preferential treatment for its companies to expand with zero to little western competition. Even there they messed up

And to top that, they even started crazy attacks against Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure. They are crazy people. Hit something critical, or for Saudi Arabia to get really angry, and China will suddenly have 0 oil from SA. So Iran needs to get its head checked and stop messing around

Basically it all boils down to who offers the most. SA and the other Gulf Countries can offer way too many things that Iran can't match. For so long, (apart from geography), Iran's anti-Western and Gulf's pro-US stance was what made Iran very valuable to China. But now that the Arabs have started turning away from America and instead now look at China, even this Iranian advantage has been eroded.

Its really a no-brainer that China would give higher priority to the Gulf countries than to Iran
 
LawLeadsToPeace

LawLeadsToPeace

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tphuang said:
Yes, they provided a lot of support here for gcc countries. Not just on Iran, but also Iraq and Palestine also. Good on them. Whatever they need to get support of these countries. F Iran and Israel
Click to expand...

Overbom said:
I have nothing personal against Iran, but the problem for them when dealing with China is that they bring way too little to the table.

The Arabs can offer huge quantities of oil, huge wealthy markets, huge geographical position, wrestle them away from America's influence, huge buyers of military equipment, huge customers of physical and digital infradtructure etc.

In comparison, Iran has way too little to offer. Even with JCPOA, they have messed up and played up the heroes. China wanted Iran to get unsanctioned, and then get preferential treatment for its companies to expand with zero to little western competition. Even there they messed up

And to top that, they even started crazy attacks against Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure. They are crazy people. Hit something critical, or for Saudi Arabia to get really angry, and China will suddenly have 0 oil from SA. So Iran needs to get its head checked and stop messing around

Basically it all boils down to who offers the most. SA and the other Gulf Countries can offer way too many things that Iran can't match. For so long, (apart from geography), Iran's anti-Western and Gulf's pro-US stance was what made Iran very valuable to China. But now that the Arabs have started turning away from America and instead now look at China, even this Iranian advantage has been eroded.

Its really a no-brainer that China would give higher priority to the Gulf countries than to Iran
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Given the fact that your view focuses on financial gains rather than the political aspect, I’ll provide the latter:
While this point does seem like a loss for Iran and looks like China is going to throw away Iran like a broken toy (a Western perspective since that is what they do), I disagree given how China handled their own territorial disputes and how China is focusing on neutralizing the US threat. China’s primary focus is to neutralize the US at little cost. That requires China to economically and technologically surpass and perform a “death by a thousand cuts” on the US. Such an endeavor has numerous requirements, which includes working with both the Arabic nations (since they are the largest oil exporters) and Iran (who has the ability and clout to threaten Israel which forces the US to constantly be involved in the region). However given the fact that Iran always had beef with the Arabic countries, the Chinese needs to help, at the very least, reduce the nationalistic and cultural obsession with those territories that were mentioned in the 12th point to make their plan work and to prevent the US from exploiting it. Their diplomatic work in regards to the SCS disputes is an example of how the Chinese managed to keep the other involved nations from running to the U.S. while maintaining and enforcing their claims in the region. I bet the Chinese are planning to do something similar to reduce the tensions in the region and get them to not be at each others’ throats in the meantime.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

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I believe we have to look at the Middle East from a multitude of angles, not just in a binary yay-or-nay.

The following is a very simplitic (and possibly naive) thread of me describing the Middle East affairs, so do take it with a grain of salt.

I think we all know that Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel have been locked in a three-way Mexican standoff... sort of.

On one hand, Saudi Arabia and Iran hates each other due to their Sunni-Shia split, which dates back more than 1300 years ago. Iran, firmly backed by Russia, sees Saudi Arabia as being a US puppet and secretly having affairs with US-backed Israel. Riyadh and Tehran are also locked in a bitter struggle for leadership and supremacy in the Middle East, evident by them backing opposing sides in the Yemeni and Syrian Civil Wars, for instance.

On the other hand, Israel hates both Saudi Arabia and Iran (and vice-versa) thanks to the Palestinian conflict. However, unlike Tehran which has already sworn Tel Aviv to be her worst enemy, Riyadh still maintains some sort of unofficial, backdoor-ish relationship with Tel Aviv under the monitoring of Washington DC (which is the primary backer of both countries in the region against Iran), albeit Riyadh still stands with the Palestinians on the Israel-Palestine conflict agains Tel Aviv, similarly to Tehran.

We also shouldn't forget to mention that in the backdrop of all these is the US-Russia rivalry for regional supremacy in the region, which itself is a continuation from the Cold War, i.e. US-Soviet emnity. Despite this, in recent years, Saudi Arabia and Israel has also seen approachements by Russia in the region.

However, there is less of an amicable atmosphere WRT Israel-Russia relations, considering the conflicting interests between the two countries in the Syrian Civil War. At the same time, Russia is having increased cooperation with Saudi Arabia, which also plays a key role in the formation of OPEC+ and their coordination against the US as shown by their recent joint-oil production cuts.

For China as a complete outsider in the ongoing Middle Eastern Cold War, Beijing would have to thread the lines carefully. This is considering that:
1. Saudi Arabia is the largest oil supplier for China, and is also a major Chinese arms buyer especially in recent years;
2. Israel cooperates with China on many scientific and technological R&Ds, despite standing against Israel and with the Palestinians; and
3. Iran is a major oil supplier for China, plus China (alongside Russia) also backed Iran in face of the US-led confrontation.

Therefore, I think that China would be (and have to be) managing her Middle East diplomacy very carefully, because it would not be in the best interests for China to anger any side for as long as possible, since she would need whatever international backing and support that she can muster in the face of US-led Western adversarial confrontation in the Western Pacific and across the world.
 
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Overbom

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LawLeadsToPeace said:
While this point does seem like a loss for Iran and looks like China is going to throw away Iran like a broken toy (a Western perspective since that is what they do),
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China won't throw Iran away but instead will give higher priority to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries

In multiple times this year (and past year), in official foreign ministry statements and speeches, China has repeatedly emphasised that to it, Saudi Arabia is their most important partner in the region. At that time we didnt know what that meant on practise, it was just words

However now with these released statements we are getting a clearer picture of what that would entail. Saudi Arabia + Gulf countries are getting a (symbolic only?) higher position than Iran on Middle East affairs from China's perspective. This doesn't mean that Iran will be thrown away, however, you will see more Chinese attention turned toward Arab's issues than Iran's issues.

IMO Iran really messed up with the JCPOA. If they had gotten the deal through, it would have changed things and would had elevated their position on China's eyes. Its really a shame that they were too shortsighted for their own good. JCPOA (from China's perspective) was never about America, it was about enabling China to invest there and capture their market with minimal Western competition.

LawLeadsToPeace said:
However given the fact that Iran always had beef with the Arabic countries, the Chinese needs to help, at the very least, reduce the nationalistic and cultural obsession with those territories that were mentioned in the 12th point to make their plan work and to prevent the US from exploiting it
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I am sure if you had asked Iran, they would present their own list of things that they are bothered by the Arabs, however we never saw a Chinese statement being so friendly to Iran and anti-Arab in those occasions. Now however, we see a pro-Arab and a bit anti-Iran statement. Why do you think this happened?

Is it because China is going left and right and trying to antagonise people? No.. Its because the Gulf States know that they have a strong negotiating hand. They got money, they got oil, they got geography, and most important of all, there is an once in a decades chance to get them out of America's influence.

China has calculated the positives and the negatives together and has come to the logical conclusion that this opportunity must not be wasted, which is why you see these anti-Iran points added. Its all about what China can gain, what can it lose. The gains now far outweigh any potential small loss
 
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gelgoog

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Russia and Iran did not have that great of a relationship to start with. It only thawed after Russia went into Syria to fight ISIS.
The Soviet Union used to be a sponsor of all the Pan-Arabic parties in Egypt, Syria, and Iraq. Because of the antagonism between Iraq under Saddam Hussein and Iran back then the Soviet Union had frosty relationships with Iran. But right now the situation between those players is a lot different with Shia majority rule in Iraq. The US invasion basically ended the antagonism that existed between Iraq and Iran.
 
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taxiya

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  • Always keep balance.
  • Don't demand immediate returns for immediate offers, state relationship isn't one time bargain.
  • Don't threat someone, you only get an subjugated enemy that will stab you any time when possible.
  • Offer something, and take note of the return, act accordingly but not with grunt.
  • Always put yourself in others' shoes. Don't be eccentric.
  • Encourage one's cooperation by cooperating with one's rivalry, always keep the door open to everyone equally.
    • That is to have others to compete for your favor, not you compete for others' favor.
  • Let people make their own decision by looking at the reward of good attitude, not by punishment or throwing a face.
  • Don't wait for anyone, nor reject anyone.
  • Focus on the materialistic, not on the attitudes.
 
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