Latest Japanese National Institute of Defence Studies "China Security Report 2025" on the topic "The Rising Global South and China"
China is expanding its influence in the Global South by developing economic and trade relations and enhancing military and security cooperation, while maintaining contact with a wide range of actors, including non-state actors, in response to regional and state circumstances. China and many countries in the Global South loosely share a vision of a future international order transitioning from the unipolar hegemony by the United States (or Western countries) to a multipolarity brought about by the rise of the Global South. These countries tend to accept Chinese leadership if it leads to their own development and greater fairness in global governance. On the other hand, given the rising power of a group of countries in the Global South with significant growth potential, China’s leadership is not guaranteed for the future. In this context, it is likely that the strategic competition between the United States and China will continue in various areas, enmeshing the Global South. In order to maximize their national interests, countries in the Global South will seek to maintain their independence and distinctiveness from the United States and China, while at the same time taking opportunistic actions and increasing their assertiveness. China justifies its unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in East Asia as defending its core interests, and is escalating its actions backed by military force. The Global South’s growing support for China’s rhetoric and actions could further encourage China’s attempts to change the status quo and destabilize the regional situation. In light of this, countries that aim to maintain and strengthen a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” should work to enhance public diplomacy while building stronger ties with the Global South. At the same time, they will need to deepen their understanding of the unique perspectives and policy issues of each region and country in the Global South, and to explore economic cooperation and capacity-building assistance that is rooted in the specific needs of each country, in order to develop long-term partnerships based on trust.