In reality the EU has not benefited the economy of most of the EU. Only Germany (and Netherlands) is really benefited by it.
For Mediterranean countries entering the EU was a disaster that demolished our industries for forever.
You are right that the promise was the theoretical economical benefit, but when you check hard numbers you can see the issues.
For example Spain real wages are the same in 2023 that they were in 2000. But cost of living basically doubled.
Spain had a pretty decent naval industry in the 80s, due to EU it was 90% demolished. Now only some military stuff is manufactured there. Same with metallurgy, car industries and other things.
For Greece the disaster was even bigger
EU purpose was always to provide a big close market for German (as US vassal) industry. EU is a very closed market and product from outside EU has big tariffs and quotas. Production of EU members is also regulated by quotas.
Also all countries in EU suffered a big workforce migration to the north, contributing to this (I am southern european and I have work during years in different countries in the north). This contributes even more to decline of the south.
Anyway, this is the past. Currently it will be very hard that the EU will collapse without foreign interference.
One, any country want to split will suffer big commercial pressure by the rest of the EU and US.
Two, those countries are non functional countries anymore. They lack basic industries for independence
Three, institutions are too integrated with the EU. And in the case of the army with NATO. There is no real way out without a big revolution.
Four, still functional countries like Germany or France also has no incentive to leave. Germany leaves the EU and what happens? That they their cars lost the protection EU is giving them, and taking into consideration how few competitive they are against china they dont sell nothing. Their industry collapses. Even now the Chinese cars are tremendously growing in the EU
I personally think that the EU will fall at some point, but it will not be that easy. Its elites and the US elites will fight hard to maintain it. (EU is a creation of the US, sometimes US put it down like it put down Japan, but it is not interested in EU falling).
How can EU fall? Well, if Russia win the war on Ukraine and manage to either conquer until the border with Hungary either to install a friendly regime.
Across Ukraine and Russia Hungary could access China. That could be more beneficial for it, and at some point could leave the EU. Austria could come with it if is in its interest.
Serbia through the frontier with Hungary.
With Russia dominating Ukraine Bulgary and some others would chance to Eurassia step by step.
Sadly my own country, Spain is in totally the other side of Europe. So we will be the last of integrate with Eurasia.
A lot of this is conditional.
First condition is that China is able to overcome all sanctions and develop their semiconductor industry to the same level than the West. I believe China will do it in around 5 years
Second condition is that China or Russia are able to develop their independent aircraft industry to the same level than the West.
Here I am more negative. I think the path of China in aircraft industry is wrong, it relies to much in Western supply chain. Path of Russia (after their problems with the SuperJet) is better, and the MC21 is a good alternative to Airbus/Boeing. But they will not be able to provide it in the mass numbers needed, at least in short term.
Third condition, this is gray in the moment. Russia should win the ukranian war in an absolute manner and without any compromise. This will mean to add unify whithin itself all the old "Novarussia" so basically Odessa, Kharkov, Nikolaiev and so on. The black sea cost.
And at the same time to reach the frontier with Hungary.
The third condition is key because it would mean that Russia control the Danube end, on the one hand, and have land corridor with Hungary Serbia in other.
This put tremendous pressure in the EU control of the Balkans, also efectively finish the EU expansion in the Caucasus.
If Russia does not win in Ukraine EU will simply impose bigger and bigger tariffs in chinese products, with the help of Ukraine will continue blackmailing with a blocade countries like Hungary and Serbia and at some point it will manage its problems and remain there. UE bureocrats have more power each year, and each year is more difficult for national parlaments to take any decision.
Population here will suffer, and level of life is really falling. I have friends in Spain, and Germany. I know situation there, things are really going down.
But at some point the EU will manage its problems and remain united, although poorer.
