Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

resistance said:

Taiwan Japan and south Korea themselves can't pose threat to china, but they can with the US support. The same apply to India.

The most things to concerned about is India security contradict with Chinese security which not gonna go well for cooperation like SCO that have security as a primary goal. This is why India being trojan for US favor. A huge Russian mistake.

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You are conflating 2 things:
1) whether or not India is a threat China really needs to concerned about in a westpac scenario. Like, can it offer Japan or Australia level of help to America
2) Whether it should be in SCO

You are using 2) to argue for 1), which is just not a serious argument.

Explain to me in military terms, what threat India can provide in a westpac scenario that is plausible

If you are just concerned about additional spying bases, well that's not so different than having more US military aircraft/ships operating from all the countries on the East coast.

tphuang said:

You are conflating 2 things:
1) whether or not India is a threat China really needs to concerned about in a westpac scenario. Like, can it offer Japan or Australia level of help to America
2) Whether it should be in SCO

You are using 2) to argue for 1), which is just not a serious argument.

Explain to me in military terms, what threat India can provide in a westpac scenario that is plausible

If you are just concerned about additional spying bases, well that's not so different than having more US military aircraft/ships operating from all the countries on the East coast.

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India can help blackade Sea routes in Indian ocean during wartime and supply insurgents in Tibet which india already host ( worst than Westpac since there's land connection)

resistance said:

India can help blackade Sea routes in Indian ocean during wartime and supply insurgents in Tibet which india already host ( worst than Westpac since there's land connection)

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explain how they can do that without incurring huge losses to themselves?

More importantly, how do they do it? How many ships do they have in their navy that can operate at any given time that can actually operate in the sea? How do they know a ship is headed to China vs say Vietnam or Korea or Russia far east or Philippines or Indonesia
?

do they board each ship in order to do so? How long does it take to stop a civilian ship and board it and identify that ship is headed to China and then capture that ship and bring it back to the port?

Let's say manage to do it once, that will be an obvious act of war toward China. How do they stop China and Pakistan launching air bombing campaigns into India?

How do they justify getting their cities bombed in order to board a few ships?

It is dumb to block off India just because China is concerned about India. Because there are things India could offer in SCO that might offset its cost.

Here is a legit argument concerning why India should be excluded: It may harass other members inside SCO from participating. For example, blocking off certain country from attending meetings. Example:


India blocked off Pakistan from attending meetings, therefore hampered Pakistani contribution toward SCO. The unrealized Pakistan contribution adds up to the cost of hosting India inside SCO. If these total cost add up to the point outweigh what benefit India provides, then India should rightfully be removed.

Another problem is India blocking off perspective new members joining SCO. Whatever unrealized contribution those member could have contributed, also adds up toward cost of hosting India.

So far I don't think India have done enough to warrant removal yet. But if incidence like these keeps add up, then ledger needs to be rebalanced.

resistance said:

This is why India being trojan for US favor. A huge Russian mistake.

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Sorry but I "didn't get the memo"...I thought Russian insistance on Indian membership was to balance China (keep it on its toes, so to speak)??

It is Russian foreign policy to chop up China, after all (it was veru, very funny seeing CGTN interview Dugin last year) -- American stupidity pushing them to China is simply putting that on pause. Though Putin may never trust the West again, it's not certain that his successor, immediate or another, wouldn't want to make another attempt.

resistance said:

The base is not just serve for spying but also supplying insurgents in Tibet which happened before. Remember that India still held tibetan separatist base in dhramasala.
This threat should not be underestimated.

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Tibet has had no insurgency since the 1960s and even China of the 1950s did just fine against Indian-British-American subversion in Tibet.

DavidChou said:

It is Russian foreign policy to chop up China, after all (it was veru, very funny seeing CGTN interview Dugin last year) -- American stupidity pushing them to China is simply putting that on pause. Though Putin may never trust the West again, it's not certain that his successor, immediate or another, wouldn't want to make another attempt.

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Dugin has no influence in the Russian government. He used to be a university professor who wrote speculative books. Just to give you an idea of how well connected to the government he is, he got fired from the Russian state university he used to lecture at.

gelgoog said:

Dugin has no influence in the Russian government. He used to be a university professor who wrote speculative books. Just to give you an idea of how well connected to the government he is, he got fired from the Russian state university he used to lecture at.

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Yes, I read his Wikipedia entry -- but apparently CGTN didn't LOL

They also had Mearsheimer on at least twice, too (IIRC, once with Dugin!!), who's on record recommending NBC warfare against China if that's what it takes (in that Intelligence Squared debate on YouTube)...that's like having Tojo talk about why Westoids need to stay outta Asia!

Anyway, Dugin's philosophy isn't far off from the Russian foreign policy establishment's -- a Chinese graduate of Saint Petersburg University's political science department wrote in SCMP earlier this year about how despite getting the dean's written permission, he was still refused entry by a professor to that professor's masters-level seminar on the future of Sino-Russian relations....

I always think it is not wise for China to agree with India joining SCO. It looks like China don't want to say No to Russia and China sometimes has no guts to defend their own interests.

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kkccoo11 said:

I always think it is not wise for China to agree with India joining SCO. It looks like China don't want to say No to Russia and China sometimes has no guts to defend their own interests.

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Or maybe China has some pipe dreams that two neighboring countries having wars years ago and economic and territory conflicts (both competing for the west's technology and money ) will become friends.