Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

tphuang said:

I'm not really seeing where it just obeys Western camp. After all, they continue to stay neutral in the Russia conflict & buy large amount of Russian oil despite facing pressure to not do so.

And if China doesn't have anything tangible to offer India, then I don't see why India shouldn't seek for tech/investment from the West.

That last point about hoping to reduce purchases of Russian military hardware is just logical. What could they buy from Russia that's of any good? Right now, India is in an extremely weak military position. Even Pakistani AF & army are stronger. Given the security pressure they face, they should look for better weapons

This is why generally I'm not concerned with India. It's not a security threat to China

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if they don't buy Russian oil, they die. If they could stop, they would. But they can't, so they don't. The west hasn't offered India anything that would be worth killing itself over.

India is energy poor and imports 85% of its oil.


India has a negative balance of payments every year since 2004 except 2020. Where will they get the foreign exchange to buy more oil?


India already has some of the world's lowest per capita energy uses and lowest per capita calories.



They aren't importing Russian oil to stick it to the west unless "not killing millions to starvation and poverty" is a show of defiance.

India clearly wants to copy what China did during the Cold War. Unfortunately for it, it is facing 2 big problems:

1. It doesn't want to fall into Western embrace like China did when against the USSR. It wants to be a third pole which means that the West can't/won't trust it.
2. Even if the above was solved, there is still a bigger problem here. The West has smarten up and it won't allow a second China to happen again.

So, India can huff and puff all it wants but it won't change a darn thing. The only real solution for India's development has always been China. China offered BRI to it, but India was then (and still is) thinking about its bright future of a Supapowe and it didn't want to be "shackled" to China

Its like a Wendy's employee not taking 1 million investment for an app from Apple because "in the future"TM he would be heavily relying on Apple.

With this kind of mentality its no wonder why India is, once again, losing out benefits from both sides

Does the west even have enough manufacturing they could move toward India?
As far as i can see the only nation that could move manufacturing around is China we all know how India thinks about Chinese investment into India. Also China seems to be more interested in South east Asia and SEA is seems more interested in getting Chinese manufacturing.

As far as i can see India can do two things either fix the border issue with China and create a safe investment environment for Chinese companies or continue the way they are going and hope the west is stupid or greedy enough to take the bait and make a second China out of India.

BlackWindMnt said:

Does the west even have enough manufacturing they could move toward India?
As far as i can see the only nation that could move manufacturing around is China we all know how India thinks about Chinese investment into India. Also China seems to be more interested in South east Asia and SEA is seems more interested in getting Chinese manufacturing.

As far as i can see India can do two things either fix the border issue with China and create a safe investment environment for Chinese companies or continue the way they are going and hope the west is stupid or greedy enough to take the bait and make a second China out of India.

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The West doesn't have the capacity to turn India into a second China. Let's not forget that their investments have to pan out. US auto and tech (both hardware and software) sectors have already learned the hard way over decades that it does not.

coolgod said:

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A good write up by a professional who knows about the details of China-India relationship. A glance from China's elite perspective, India is definitely in the western camp and is solidly onboard the anti-China train now. I don't think India's new stance will change even if Modi leaves office.

China needs to roll out more multilateral orgs that exclude India, e.g., China+Central Asia 5, China + Afghanistan neighbours. With enough of these organizations, SCO can finally be buried.

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China could use the same method the anglos are using and target the elites of the Indian Brahmins, who jealously guard the Indian market as their own fiefdom and steal the technology of idiot Chinese phone makers like Xiaomi.

Problem is also that like with the SCO, India is holding the BRICS hostage as well and in doing so, serving the Anglo west. If China wanted t9 convince India to abide by the right side of history, it must do as the anglos did and colonise and devastate the subcontinent. Only then will Indians finally respect and worship Chinese as they do the white anglos.

tphuang said:

Then they need a more whole perspective.

India will never be in Western camp. It's in its own camp, because it wants to be a 3rd power.

It might help some people on this forum to follow India media and social media to see how they actually think.

As long as India is in BRICS, it is of net benefit to China.

I'm not sure what does China have to gain by being overtly anti India like some have suggested here. What can India participation in the "Quad" actually do? From what I can see, it provides nothing important against China.

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The article reflects what the elites/academia/policy makers in China think, not what we on this forum thinks. Just like the recent few Foreign Affairs articles on India reflects what elites/academia/policy makers in the west think. Both think India has chosen to repeat China's role during the cold war, with a few comparisons with Modi's visit to US to Deng's visit to US. Have you ever wondered why there haven't been any positive stories portraying India or heartwarming stories about China-India friendship in the Chinese media in the past few years? Clearly the higher ups in the CPC don't see India the same as you.

Think about the Sino-Soviet split, both countries claimed to be socialist and reject being in the western camp, there were border clashes, the US got intelligence bases in Chinese borders, the US used China to help arm freedom fighters, the US permitted more business and military deals/exchanges with China. Replace China and the Soviet Union with India and China, notice the eerie similarities?

FairAndUnbiased said:

if they don't buy Russian oil, they die. If they could stop, they would. But they can't, so they don't. The west hasn't offered India anything that would be worth killing itself over.

India is energy poor and imports 85% of its oil.

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India has a negative balance of payments every year since 2004 except 2020. Where will they get the foreign exchange to buy more oil?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

India already has some of the world's lowest per capita energy uses and lowest per capita calories.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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They aren't importing Russian oil to stick it to the west unless "not killing millions to starvation and poverty" is a show of defiance.

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Well, they imported very little Russian oil before the Ukraine conflict, so they can clearly go without Russian oil. It will just lead to them paying more.

India acts in its own interests and that's the best you can hope for if you are china. There is no reason to constantly talk down on indians.

It seems like anytime a discussion about India comes up, people like to use different languages to describe how backward Indian people are. Well if they are that backward, then we should have no concerns then, right?

In my case, I have no concerns at all even though I respect India.

coolgod said:

The article reflects what the elites/academia/policy makers in China think, not what we on this forum thinks. Just like the recent few foreign affairs articles on India reflects what elites/academia/policy makers in the west thinks. Both think India has chosen to repeat China's role during the cold war, with a few comparisons with Modi's visit to US to Deng's visit to US.

Think about the Sino-Soviet split, both countries claimed to be socialist and reject being in the western camp, there were border clashes, the US got intelligence bases in Chinese borders, the US used China to help arm freedom fighters, the US permitted more business and military deals/exchanges with China. Replace China and the Soviet Union with India and China, notice the eerie similarities? If this recent increase in enmity from India towards China and their further drift towards western camp isn't evident to you, e.g., 2020+, then you are choosing to close your eyes.

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You probably want to read what I wrote. India is acting in it's self interest. I don't really care what India is trying to accomplish because frankly, India is not a threat to china. Just because a certain American politicians are delusional and think it is, doesn't mean I have to hold the same view.

Btw, I don't know how long you have been following this, but India stance and view toward china really hasn't changed that much in 20 years. I can tell you when I first started following these things, Hindu nationals already viewed china as it's biggest enemy.

tphuang said:

Well, they imported very little Russian oil before the Ukraine conflict, so they can clearly go without Russian oil. It will just lead to them paying more.

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Not when global oil production decreased and all the oil from Saudi Arabia that the Indians were buying is now being bought by the Europeans at inflated prices. Even the Muslim countries in Northern Africa are now buying Russian oil.
It is either Russian oil, or no oil basically. Unless you think India can pay more for the Saudi oil than Europe.

tphuang said:

You probably want to read what I wrote. India is acting in it's self interest. I don't really care what India is trying to accomplish because frankly, India is not a threat to china. Just because a certain American politicians are delusional and think it is, doesn't mean I have to hold the same view.

Btw, I don't know how long you have been following this, but India stance and view toward china really hasn't changed that much in 20 years. I can tell you when I first started following these things, Hindu nationals already viewed china as it's biggest enemy.

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Nobody is denying that India is acting it's (perceived) self interest, just like how America's hostility towards China and Russia is acting in it's (perceived) self interest. Even if you refuse to believe India's stance and view towards China hasn't changed that much in the past 20 years, US and Chinese leaders see it differently, this is evident. Even if you don't think India is a threat to China, it is still a threat to China's plans for SCO/BRICS and other global south cooperation. These two points are key and actually relates back to the topic of the thread: What strategies can China choose when leading the SCO and global south cooperation given there is India who is (widely perceived) as uncooperative in almost all fronts towards China.

gelgoog said:

Not when global oil production decreased and all the oil from Saudi Arabia that the Indians were buying is now being bought by the Europeans at inflated prices. Even the Muslim countries in Northern Africa are now buying Russian oil.
It is either Russian oil, or no oil basically. Unless you think India can pay more for the Saudi oil than Europe.

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So you admit that they can live without Russian oil as long as they are willing to pay a lot more. You may want to take a look at global oil exports and what % of that is Russian export.

coolgod said:

Nobody is denying that India is acting it's (perceived) self interest, just like how America's hostility towards China and Russia is acting in it's (perceived) self interest. Even if you refuse to believe India's stance and view towards China hasn't changed that much in the past 20 years, US and Chinese leaders see it differently, this is evident. Even if you don't think India is a threat to China, it is still a threat to China's plans for SCO/BRICS and other global south cooperation. These two points are key and actually relates back to the topic of the thread: What strategies can China choose when leading the SCO and global south cooperation given there is India who is (widely perceived) as uncooperative in almost all fronts towards China.

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I am not sure just what exactly you are hoping sco does? Up to this point, it really hasn't done all that much.

Brics on the other hand is trying to be a financial organization for the global South. India is helping to burnish it's credentials as an inclusive global organization promoting multipolar world and move away from western centric financial system.

That to me is more beneficial than any annoyance you or anyone else may feel toward India.

Because all this effort from America to pull in India really hasn't done much on a practical level. India started targeting Chinese firms because it has a border dispute with China and other geopolitical issues. Not because America is telling it to hate china.