Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

davidau

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A good write up by a professional who knows about the details of China-India relationship. A glance from China's elite perspective, India is definitely in the western camp and is solidly onboard the anti-China train now. I don't think India's new stance will change even if Modi leaves office.

China needs to roll out more multilateral orgs that exclude India, e.g., China+Central Asia 5, China + Afghanistan neighbours. With enough of these organizations, SCO can finally be buried.
India is pretty much a turncoat, favouring the West [QUAD] with an aim to containing China, and becoming the third sheriff. so I totally in agreement with coolgod above
 

luminary

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The Cradle

Sri Lanka will begin sending tea to Iran next month in lieu of paying some $250 million owed for oil, Reuters
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on 23 June, as the island country seeks to protect its US dollar foreign exchange reserves and bypass restrictions on trade with Iran due to US sanctions.

“This is very timely for us because we get access to an important market, and Iran and Sri Lanka can trade without relying on dollars,” Sri Lanka’s Tea Board Chairman Niraj de Mel told Reuters.

“The agreement was to send $5 million worth of tea each month for 48 months, but we plan to start with about $2 million monthly.”

The barter agreement to pay for oil purchased in 2012 was first reached in 2021 but is finally set to begin next month.

Sri Lankan government official Ramesh Pathirana
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the oil-for-tea barter arrangement would circumvent sanctions imposed on Iran by the US because tea is considered a foodstuff.
Barter trade in the region is becoming increasingly common to bypass the effects of US sanctions and to cope with shortages of foreign currency reserves.

Earlier this month, Pakistan
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a barter trade agreement with Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan to ease the mounting pressure on its depleted foreign exchange reserves.

The barter mechanism allows crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), wheat, iron, and steel to be imported from Russia. In contrast, coal, crude oil, LNG, LPG, fruits, nuts, and vegetables will be allowed to be imported from Iran.

The barter mechanism is necessary for trade with Pakistan’s neighbors because the US government has imposed economic sanctions on all three. Any Pakistani company engaging in financial transactions with Iran, Russia, or Afghanistan would be shut out of the US-dominated global financial system.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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A good write up by a professional who knows about the details of China-India relationship. A glance from China's elite perspective, India is definitely in the western camp and is solidly onboard the anti-China train now. I don't think India's new stance will change even if Modi leaves office.

China needs to roll out more multilateral orgs that exclude India, e.g., China+Central Asia 5, China + Afghanistan neighbours. With enough of these organizations, SCO can finally be buried.
the entire premise of Indian political thought: China's rise is primarily or solely due to the investment of developed foreign countries. If India gets the same investment, it will have the same or better outcome. And if China loses the favor of developed foreign countries, it can no longer rise, because clearly China was built by foreigners.
但是他们后来看到美国并没有这么做,美国仍把它的战略重点放在印太地区,因此印度的战略界——特别是印度前国家安全顾问希夫尚卡尔·梅农和前外交秘书萨仁山——有一个判断,即认为中国的崛起之窗正在关闭或已关闭,美国已把中国视作最重要的战略竞争者,并联合其盟友共同对付中国。


在这种情况下,印度一方面利用美国的印太战略来遏制中国,另一方面希望在这过程中推动全球的价值产业链向印度转移,希望美、日、欧等发达国家能投资印度,并向印度转移技术,助力印度实现经济腾飞和大国崛起的目标。

I only have 1 way to describe their mindset:

article-0-0093C8D000000259-56_468x322.jpg
 

Fedupwithlies

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the entire premise of Indian political thought: China's rise is primarily or solely due to the investment of developed foreign countries. If India gets the same investment, it will have the same or better outcome. And if China loses the favor of developed foreign countries, it can no longer rise, because clearly China was built by foreigners.


I only have 1 way to describe their mindset:

article-0-0093C8D000000259-56_468x322.jpg

Watching the west try so hard to get India to be the next China and be a counter to China is like watching a slow motion train wreck.
 

tphuang

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A good write up by a professional who knows about the details of China-India relationship. A glance from China's elite perspective, India is definitely in the western camp and is solidly onboard the anti-China train now. I don't think India's new stance will change even if Modi leaves office.

China needs to roll out more multilateral orgs that exclude India, e.g., China+Central Asia 5, China + Afghanistan neighbours. With enough of these organizations, SCO can finally be buried.

Then they need a more whole perspective.

India will never be in Western camp. It's in its own camp, because it wants to be a 3rd power.

It might help some people on this forum to follow India media and social media to see how they actually think.

As long as India is in BRICS, it is of net benefit to China.

I'm not sure what does China have to gain by being overtly anti India like some have suggested here. What can India participation in the "Quad" actually do? From what I can see, it provides nothing important against China.
 

TK3600

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There is no reason to be anti India because there is no threat it can pose. The ie also no reason to be pro India because they provide no direct value to cooperate. All investment will be seized, therefore China ought to forbid business in India unless it is one time transactional. The only variable here is how much can one make India troll Americans too. That is the difference between a good or bad India policy. In neither case do you expect India to be a threat or a valuable market.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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Then they need a more whole perspective.

India will never be in Western camp. It's in its own camp, because it wants to be a 3rd power.

It might help some people on this forum to follow India media and social media to see how they actually think.

As long as India is in BRICS, it is of net benefit to China.

I'm not sure what does China have to gain by being overtly anti India like some have suggested here. What can India participation in the "Quad" actually do? From what I can see, it provides nothing important against China.
India isn't in the western camp, true. It obeys the western camp at cost to itself. So effectively, worse..

You are correct, India indeed wants to harvest tech and investments from the west.

与此同时,印度在积极推动美国构建起围堵中国的“印太”框架后,也在转移自己的战略重点:一方面往印度洋转移,和美国进行战略协调,要把中国在南亚和印度洋地区的影响力清除出去;另一方面向所谓“全球南方”转移,希望成为“全球南方”的领袖,把1962年后失去的国际地位争夺回来。另外,印度也在努力缓和与中国的关系。去年印度方面的一些外交行动还是很明显的,特别是莫迪总理在G20巴厘岛峰会上主动与习近平主席寒暄。

But the US already has 4 critical cards to play against India to put them in their place. And they have been put in their place. They are: 1. human rights and media image, 2. Khalistan independence movement with their top leaders all safe in Canada, Australia and UK, 3. They have absolute control over Adani (Modi's primary sponsor), and 4. they can sponsor Rahul Gandhi at any time with their other tools. And so, Modi is under their control, and has proven to be submissive to their wants.

美国人看出印度的这些想法,所以对莫迪进行敲打,具体来讲可分四个方面。

一是通过人权。比如发布人权报告,再比如去年英国BBC制作了一部名为《印度:莫迪问题》(India: The Modi Question)的纪录片,影响很大,让莫迪和印度人很恼火。

二是鼓动如加拿大、澳大利亚以及英国等国家锡克人的“卡利斯坦运动”——这运动设想在印度西北部和巴基斯坦的旁遮普地区为锡克教徒建立一个独立的“卡利斯坦国”。这实际上就是在敲打印度,让印度知道美国随时可以拿捏它。


三是真正的敲山震虎、杀鸡骇猴,即收割阿达尼(Adani Group)。莫迪政权的实质是婆罗门和巴尼亚的联盟,而阿达尼是巴尼亚财团的一个典型代表,且相比其他财团,和莫迪之间的盟友关系最为紧密,莫迪募集选举资金的主要来源就是阿达尼。这招对莫迪绝对是一个严重警告,告诫他美国可以影响印度经济,也可以影响他的政权安全。

四是扶植莫迪的竞争对手拉胡尔·甘地。最近一年拉胡尔·甘地成长得非常快,影响力在迅速上升,这让莫迪非常担心,所以他提前下手,把拉胡尔·甘地从议员的席位上拉了下来。
可以看出经过这四个方面的敲打,印度对美国确实顺从了很多。在这么多又拉又打的铺垫之后,美国希望完全将印度绑到遏制中国的战车上。

They've already backstabbed Russia - for no gain, only the promise of gain.
现在印度战略界的一些专家,在谈及美印关系时,会说印度仍保持一定程度上的“战略自主”;谈及俄乌问题,他们现在也承认不是保持中立,而是和莫迪保持一致的说法,即站在所谓和平的一方——“和平”的意义有很多种,霸权凌辱下被迫屈辱接受的和平是和平,反击霸权后获得的和平也是和平,而莫迪所谓的和平,我的理解是莫斯科即使遭遇北约挑衅和欺凌也不能动手的和平,这是无原则、非正义的和平;而在台海和南海问题上,他们所谓的和平就是中国不得采取武力手段维护国家的统一和领土完整。
实际上印度长期以来都想减少对俄军工的依赖,推进武器装备生产的本土化。所以可以看到它从俄的进口实际上在逐步降低,而从美国、法国、以色列和德国的进口在不断增加。美国也曾许诺过印度要在印度当地生产F-16战机,但几乎没有具体的推进。
 

tphuang

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India isn't in the western camp, true. It obeys the western camp at cost to itself. So effectively, worse..

You are correct, India indeed wants to harvest tech and investments from the west.

But the US already has 4 critical cards to play against India to put them in their place. And they have been put in their place. They are: 1. human rights and media image, 2. Khalistan independence movement with their top leaders all safe in Canada, Australia and UK, 3. They have absolute control over Adani (Modi's primary sponsor), and 4. they can sponsor Rahul Gandhi at any time with their other tools. And so, Modi is under their control, and has proven to be submissive to their wants.

They've already backstabbed Russia - for no gain, only the promise of gain.

I'm not really seeing where it just obeys Western camp. After all, they continue to stay neutral in the Russia conflict & buy large amount of Russian oil despite facing pressure to not do so.

And if China doesn't have anything tangible to offer India, then I don't see why India shouldn't seek for tech/investment from the West.

That last point about hoping to reduce purchases of Russian military hardware is just logical. What could they buy from Russia that's of any good? Right now, India is in an extremely weak military position. Even Pakistani AF & army are stronger. Given the security pressure they face, they should look for better weapons

This is why generally I'm not concerned with India. It's not a security threat to China
 
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