Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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canonicalsadhu said:
India is trying to capitalize on the West-China decoupling trend to position itself as the West's new manufacturing hub, so I'd say yes. India has good relations with all the developed world and wants to industrialize so India is not too desperate to better relations with China.

The smart play for China is to better relations with India and encourage India to compete in services rather than manufacturing. Keep in mind that just as the West runs a big merchandise trade deficit with China and wants to diversify to countries like India, China runs a big service deficit with the West and should diversity into countries like India. In this way, it would prevent India from becoming an industrial competitor, encourage more competition between India and the West, and gain more leverage over it and diversify from the West.
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India has been failing to industrialize for 30+ years. The real capital investment capability of westbloc is limited. They do not have the capability to prop up India without return indefinitely. Westbloc also will 100% be wary of creating a new true competitor in India because they're on guard now that China escaped their grasp. That is why all of India's real software giants like Flipkart are owned by westerners now.

India's only hope of maintaining sovereignty is to balance between westbloc and eastbloc. Otherwise, it won't be leveraging westbloc to beat China, it would be being subsumed by westbloc as a colony again. I also believe that Indian leaders are smart enough to see this, which is why they're still working with Russia. Yet, as long as India works with Russia, westbloc will never trust them, and thus the likelihood of integration with westbloc becoming subjugation increases.
 
D

discspinner

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canonicalsadhu said:
India will not back down, so China really has no choice other than either to push India into the Western camp or to compromise. It's really that simple. Given that China has bad relations with the entire developed world - US + Canada + UK + EU + Japan + SK + Australia, is it really rational for China to make another enemy with the most populous nation and the fastest growing major economy? I don't think so.
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Ashley Tellis doesn't seem to think so.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
A

Abominable

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discspinner said:
Ashley Tellis doesn't seem to think so.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
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Good article.

India always has had western equipment in their military, the introduction of Soviet/Russian equipment was the "new thing". Instead of America, they typically bought them from the UK and France. The reason American weapons have displaced European is because of the post cold war decline of European military industry, not because of any geopolitical shift.

The author comes to the same conclusion that Nixon/Kissinger came to about the Indians during the Cold War, they can't be trusted.

What's missing in the article is the impression of India from the "other side". I'll leave out what the Chinese opinion is of India, but I doubt Russians trust the Indians any more than the Americans do. Look at the recent G7 summit, where Brazil's Lula, a principled anti-imperialist, refused to meet Zelensky yet Modi happily did.

The Russians are too polite to point out what the Americans say openly, but I'm sure they think of Indians along the same line as the Americans. By attempting to play both sides the Indians are sacrificing their reputation and integrity for short term gain.

But the biggest reason why India will not be an American ally is the lack of American military bases there. No country can be a true American puppet without a military outpost.
 
hullopilllw

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
canonicalsadhu said:
India will not back down, so China really has no choice other than either to push India into the Western camp or to compromise. It's really that simple. Given that China has bad relations with the entire developed world - US + Canada + UK + EU + Japan + SK + Australia, is it really rational for China to make another enemy with the most populous nation and the fastest growing major economy? I don't think so.
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come talk when India have achieved complete basic industralisation. before that, all talks are useless.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Abominable said:
Good article.

India always has had western equipment in their military, the introduction of Soviet/Russian equipment was the "new thing". Instead of America, they typically bought them from the UK and France. The reason American weapons have displaced European is because of the post cold war decline of European military industry, not because of any geopolitical shift.

The author comes to the same conclusion that Nixon/Kissinger came to about the Indians during the Cold War, they can't be trusted.

What's missing in the article is the impression of India from the "other side". I'll leave out what the Chinese opinion is of India, but I doubt Russians trust the Indians any more than the Americans do. Look at the recent G7 summit, where Brazil's Lula, a principled anti-imperialist, refused to meet Zelensky yet Modi happily did.

The Russians are too polite to point out what the Americans say openly, but I'm sure they think of Indians along the same line as the Americans. By attempting to play both sides the Indians are sacrificing their reputation and integrity for short term gain.

But the biggest reason why India will not be an American ally is the lack of American military bases there. No country can be a true American puppet without a military outpost.
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the only question is how to ensure that Brazil continues seeing its future in China and doesn't elect a clown like Bolsanaro again.
 
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Abominable

Major
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FairAndUnbiased said:
the only question is how to ensure that Brazil continues seeing its future in China and doesn't elect a clown like Bolsanaro again.
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The reason Bolsanaro was elected was more because of his anti-corruption and anti establishment position. It certainly wasn't his foreign policy. Most Brazilians don't think Israel or America is Brazil's number one ally and as long as that's the case it'll be very difficult for an anti-Chinese position to come out of Brazil.

When he was in power he was pro-China, pro-Russia and even pro-Arab.

Speaking of Latin America as a whole, I think the next major goal for China would be to get Mexico to join BRICS. That'll be a bigger blow to America than getting Iran and Saudi Arabia to cooperate.
 
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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Abominable said:
The reason Bolsanaro was elected was more because of his anti-corruption and anti establishment position. It certainly wasn't his foreign policy. Most Brazilians don't think Israel or America is Brazil's number one ally and as long as that's the case it'll be very difficult for an anti-Chinese position to come out of Brazil.

When he was in power he was pro-China, pro-Russia and even pro-Arab.

Speaking of Latin America as a whole, I think the next major goal for China would be to get Mexico to join BRICS. That'll be a bigger blow to America than getting Iran and Saudi Arabia to cooperate.
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Doing so might honestly just end up painting a target on the back of Mexico's president, so I think it's unlikely that Mexico would want to directly join in BRICS.

Although maybe something like observer nation, partner etc.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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Abominable said:
Good article.

India always has had western equipment in their military, the introduction of Soviet/Russian equipment was the "new thing". Instead of America, they typically bought them from the UK and France. The reason American weapons have displaced European is because of the post cold war decline of European military industry, not because of any geopolitical shift.

The author comes to the same conclusion that Nixon/Kissinger came to about the Indians during the Cold War, they can't be trusted.

What's missing in the article is the impression of India from the "other side". I'll leave out what the Chinese opinion is of India, but I doubt Russians trust the Indians any more than the Americans do. Look at the recent G7 summit, where Brazil's Lula, a principled anti-imperialist, refused to meet Zelensky yet Modi happily did.

The Russians are too polite to point out what the Americans say openly, but I'm sure they think of Indians along the same line as the Americans. By attempting to play both sides the Indians are sacrificing their reputation and integrity for short term gain.

But the biggest reason why India will not be an American ally is the lack of American military bases there. No country can be a true American puppet without a military outpost.
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here is thing, India has in the past year pursued policies that are far more anti-America than pro-America. India will never truly be in an organization where there is a dominant leader, so it's place in the Quad, SCO or BRICS are just India dipping its toes everywhere. Long term, India will pursue its own interests of being a super power. Whether you think they get there is a different question, but just it will have desire to do this and build ICBMs and promote its own systems and currencies. Those things are more anti-America than anti-China.

Just look at things from a pure machiavellian point of view, India serves a purpose for China
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Michaelsinodef said:
Doing so might honestly just end up painting a target on the back of Mexico's president, so I think it's unlikely that Mexico would want to directly join in BRICS.

Although maybe something like observer nation, partner etc.
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Painting a target on the Mexican back is sort of the point, you're saying to America that Mexico is China's ally and there's nothing you can do about it. Any American hostility or aggression towards Mexico will likely lead to an upgrading of relations to SCO, maybe even the presence of a Chinese military base in Mexico.

If officials were purely concerned about what Americans would do the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal wouldn't have happened. Cooperating with Iran is definitely putting the Saudi government in American crosshairs, but with the way the world is right now there isn't much the Americans can do about it.

I agree it's soon now, but I think it'll be the next big milestone of Chinese foreign policy, and will be a much bigger win than Afghanistan, Iran & the GCC. Diplomacy in Asia has all sorts of baggage that doesn't exist in Latin America.
 
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