Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

tphuang said:

Actually, I would totally work with Japan and Korea if they are open to it, but there are real hatred in those countries for china defeating all of their national champions and deindustrializing them. Even still, china should still have manageable relationship with these two countries while trying to weaken them at the same time.

Why would you need to sacrifice relationship with Saudi and Egypt to have better relationship with turkey? That's nonsense. You might want to take a look at recent survey from arab countries about their view toward various powers. Guess what, china and turkey ranked the best on that list. So unless you can show evidence that arab countries hate turkey, them your argument doesn't work.

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There are real hatred of china in turkey too. We should have manageable relationship and weakening turkey at the same time too.

Stop using public opinion of countries to determine foreign policy especially for Arabs countries (Don't have elections). In those countries public opinion doesn't work like other parts of the world. Also Egyptian opinions.

Ideally we should have good relations with anyone, even enemies. Even rival like USA a good relation can postpone their mobilization against us. The hard part comes to what extent do you work for it? For example one way to improve relation is investment and aid. Money is limited, so it must prioritize. Should the limited investment fund go into a friendlier state or hostile state? Could the investment flip a hostile to a friendlier state? What are the potential risks investing in some country? Would investing in some nation upset its rivals, or make the rivals work harder to compete against you?

These questions are determined by a complex series of factors. I am afraid people here are not well qualified to answer this.

If you told me 5 years ago China could flip Saudi Arabia and Iran, I would laugh. So would most members. That is not to say China certainly could flip Turkey, but it shows our limited understanding cannot predict very well. We should be humble and keep an open mind to new ideas. Not necesarily accept all new ideas, but hold them in our mind and improve our framework of understanding before making judgment.

I think you would want the country that is most pro China to get the most cooperation from China. It's clearly Iran being most anti west and pro China, Saudi is in the process of moving towards China and Turkey might potentially flip in the future. I'd reward loyal customers more than giving a big new customer bonus.

At the same time, balance of power in the region should be maintained. It's in nobody's interest for one country like Turkey to dominate the region as in their dreams of a new Ottoman empire. The three main powers, Saudi, Iran and Turkey are all roughly similar in strength today, but Turkey is ahead because of its NATO membership and EU customs union. It's absurd to want China to reward Turkey's alignment with the west. There is also Egypt, a country that used to be a regional power but is now in the Saudi sphere. China should help Egypt become fully independent again. A region of many middle powers is easy to dominate, a new Muslim great power isn't.

I think it's also pretty clear that Turkey is suffering from the same attitude issues as countries like Poland, they think they're much more important than they really are. The EU gave them money and NATO gave them security, but what is Turkey giving back? They think they're entitled to all these advantages. If China is going to give them more investment or market access, they will also think they're entitled to this and give nothing back.

So of course China shouldn't needlessly antagonise Turkey, but we should realise that Turkish foreign policy objectives are opposed to Chinese and Russian ones (Syria, Libya, Armenia/Azerbaijan), they are an economic competitor and very firmly in the western camp, much more so than Saudi Arabia. Contain Turkish influence to European muslims, like Allbania, Kosovo and Bosnia, the remnants of the European part of the Ottoman empire. That leaves west Asia neatly divided between Sunni Arabs and various Shias and they can clearly learn to live with each other peacefully

resistance said:

There are real hatred of china in turkey too. We should have manageable relationship and weakening turkey at the same time too.

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Japan & Korea have the two highest disapproval rate toward China in the world. They have also actively picked US over China. Their industries are also in the same fields that China wants to dominate. That's why China will weaken them.

How is China's growth going to weaken Turkey? At this point, Erdogan has given his middle finger to the West

resistance said:

Stop using public opinion of countries to determine foreign policy especially for Arabs countries (Don't have elections). In those countries public opinion doesn't work like other parts of the world. Also Egyptian opinions.

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you make no sense. first you say to not use public opinions from Arab countries and then you post Egyptian opinions that don't really tell much of anything
All you need to know about opinions of Arab people


none of this "Turkey will turn off Saudi Arabia or Egypt" match reality

Minm said:

I think you would want the country that is most pro China to get the most cooperation from China. It's clearly Iran being most anti west and pro China, Saudi is in the process of moving towards China and Turkey might potentially flip in the future. I'd reward loyal customers more than giving a big new customer bonus.

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Do you have any proof that Iran is the most pro China. They have the least choice, but do you any proof Iran is the most pro China. Saudi right now is the prize of the region and has always been, because the rest of Arab countries follow them.

Minm said:

At the same time, balance of power in the region should be maintained. It's in nobody's interest for one country like Turkey to dominate the region as in their dreams of a new Ottoman empire. The three main powers, Saudi, Iran and Turkey are all roughly similar in strength today, but Turkey is ahead because of its NATO membership and EU customs union. It's absurd to want China to reward Turkey's alignment with the west. There is also Egypt, a country that used to be a regional power but is now in the Saudi sphere. China should help Egypt become fully independent again. A region of many middle powers is easy to dominate, a new Muslim great power isn't.

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How is China rewarding Turkey for alignment with West? This is just made up. The point is Turkey has given the finger to the West. If you are China, this is a great opportunity to work with them.

Remember, public opinion follows that of the elites.

Minm said:

I think it's also pretty clear that Turkey is suffering from the same attitude issues as countries like Poland, they think they're much more important than they really are. The EU gave them money and NATO gave them security, but what is Turkey giving back? They think they're entitled to all these advantages. If China is going to give them more investment or market access, they will also think they're entitled to this and give nothing back.

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Do you have any proof for what you are saying?

Minm said:

So of course China shouldn't needlessly antagonise Turkey, but we should realise that Turkish foreign policy objectives are opposed to Chinese and Russian ones (Syria, Libya, Armenia/Azerbaijan), they are an economic competitor and very firmly in the western camp, much more so than Saudi Arabia. Contain Turkish influence to European muslims, like Allbania, Kosovo and Bosnia, the remnants of the European part of the Ottoman empire. That leaves west Asia neatly divided between Sunni Arabs and various Shias and they can clearly learn to live with each other peacefully

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Again, Turkey has been criticized by many for it's pro-Russia policy during the past year. What are you talking about?

here are a couple of asiatimes article to read. I suggest you guys read it

tphuang said:

Japan & Korea have the two highest disapproval rate toward China in the world. They have also actively picked US over China. Their industries are also in the same fields that China wants to dominate. That's why China will weaken them.

How is China's growth going to weaken Turkey? At this point, Erdogan has given his middle finger to the West

you make no sense. first you say to not use public opinions from Arab countries and then you post Egyptian opinions that don't really tell much of anything
All you need to know about opinions of Arab people

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View attachment 112602

none of this "Turkey will turn off Saudi Arabia or Egypt" match reality


Do you have any proof that Iran is the most pro China. They have the least choice, but do you any proof Iran is the most pro China. Saudi right now is the prize of the region and has always been, because the rest of Arab countries follow them.


How is China rewarding Turkey for alignment with West? This is just made up. The point is Turkey has given the finger to the West. If you are China, this is a great opportunity to work with them.

Remember, public opinion follows that of the elites.


Do you have any proof for what you are saying?

Again, Turkey has been criticized by many for it's pro-Russia policy during the past year. What are you talking about?

here are a couple of asiatimes article to read. I suggest you guys read it

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Turkey disapproval rate of china is highest compare to other neighboring countries. China growth doesn't but Saudis and egyptian do.

Public Hostilities on Iran doesn't stop MBS to normalize with Saudis since decision is purely made by him so public opinion does not matter.

Turkey just accepted Finland in NATO and give refuge to terrorists from china. (Real middle finger to china here.)
Not really put middle finger to the west just crying and bargaining for more.

What Asia times indicates is making Erdogan stay is a good thing, that's true. But making turkey strong is the worst idea ever. Rather coordinate with Saudis to contain turkey at the same time.

tphuang said:

Do you have any proof that Iran is the most pro China. They have the least choice, but do you any proof Iran is the most pro China. Saudi right now is the prize of the region and has always been, because the rest of Arab countries follow them

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The Iranian government is very anti US. In the emerging bipolar world, this is the same as being pro China. From what I can see, they mostly complain that there isn't enough China in Iran because China worries about sanctions.

The Saudis have a very poor with Biden. There's nothing to stop them flipping back to America if Trump comes back.

Where's the proof that any relevant country follows Saudi Arabia? Not Qatar, not the UAE, certainly not Iraq or Syria or Algeria. Egypt, yes.

tphuang said:

How is China rewarding Turkey for alignment with West? This is just made up. The point is Turkey has given the finger to the West.

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No, they're milking the West for as many benefits they can get. That's very different from leaving the western alliance system

tphuang said:

Again, Turkey has been criticized by many for it's pro-Russia policy during the past year. What are you talking about?

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Have you already forgotten the Turkish invasion of Syria? Or the intervention in Libya?

resistance said:

Turkey disapproval rate of china is highest compare to other neighboring countries. China growth doesn't but Saudis and egyptian do.

Public Hostilities on Iran doesn't stop MBS to normalize with Saudis since decision is purely made by him so public opinion does not matter.

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And now Turkey will likely look to form closer relationship with China & if that happens, public opinion will follow

resistance said:

Turkey just accepted Finland in NATO and give refuge to terrorists from china. (Real middle finger to china here.)

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Not really put middle finger to the west just crying and bargaining for more.

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why should Turkey give refuge to China? They are not at that level of relationship yet. Turkey should hold things back as leverage in its dealings with other countries

Frankly, the fact that Turkey even held out for this long (when Hungary did not), should show you how much it resisted Western pressure

resistance said:

What Asia times indicates is making Erdogan stay is a good thing, that's true. But making turkey strong is the worst idea ever. Rather coordinate with Saudis to contain turkey at the same time.

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Making Turkey strong vs building better relationship with Turkey are 2 different things. China needs to adopt policies that help itself first & foremost. Whatever happens to Turkey is up to Turkey itself. China's goal should be to get Turkey to have more pro-China policies

Minm said:

The Iranian government is very anti US. In the emerging bipolar world, this is the same as being pro China. From what I can see, they mostly complain that there isn't enough China in Iran because China worries about sanctions.

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so you don't have any proof that Iran is most pro-China.

Minm said:

The Saudis have a very poor with Biden. There's nothing to stop them flipping back to America if Trump comes back.

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you obviously haven't been following things

Minm said:

Where's the proof that any relevant country follows Saudi Arabia? Not Qatar, not the UAE, certainly not Iraq or Syria or Algeria. Egypt, yes.

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let's see, Saudi Arabia decides to normalize relationship with Iran & everyone else in GCC odes the same. Saudi Arabia decides to normalize relationship with Syria and Syria is back in the Arab league. Saudi Arabia decides to end the war in Yemen & it's over

Minm said:

No, they're milking the West for as many benefits they can get. That's very different from leaving the western alliance system

Have you already forgotten the Turkish invasion of Syria? Or the intervention in Libya?

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Erdogan shut out US ambassador completely and his FM said to the world that everyone hates America. How do you walk that back?

Why do I care what Turkey did to Syria in the past? It's negotiating peace with Russia & Saudi Arabia on leaving Syria right now. That's all that matters.

When did you start caring about Syria? lol

I'm for promoting China's national interest. If Erdogan is worse for China than the other guy, then I would favor the opposition. But at this point, the collective West has turned on him, which tells me he has no other choice than getting closer to China.

tphuang said:

And now Turkey will likely look to form closer relationship with China & if that happens, public opinion will follow

why should Turkey give refuge to China? They are not at that level of relationship yet. Turkey should hold things back as leverage in its dealings with other countries

Frankly, the fact that Turkey even held out for this long (when Hungary did not), should show you how much it resisted Western pressure


Making Turkey strong vs building better relationship with Turkey are 2 different things. China needs to adopt policies that help itself first & foremost. Whatever happens to Turkey is up to Turkey itself. China's goal should be to get Turkey to have more pro-China policies


so you don't have any proof that Iran is most pro-China.

you obviously haven't been following things

let's see, Saudi Arabia decides to normalize relationship with Iran & everyone else in GCC odes the same. Saudi Arabia decides to normalize relationship with Syria and Syria is back in the Arab league. Saudi Arabia decides to end the war in Yemen & it's over

Erdogan shut out US ambassador completely and his FM said to the world that everyone hates America. How do you walk that back?

Why do I care what Turkey did to Syria in the past? It's negotiating peace with Russia & Saudi Arabia on leaving Syria right now. That's all that matters.

When did you start caring about Syria? lol

I'm for promoting China's national interest. If Erdogan is worse for China than the other guy, then I would favor the opposition. But at this point, the collective West has turned on him, which tells me he has no other choice than getting closer to China.

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That's not how public opinion works with turkey.

Why should china give anything to turkey if turkey still undermining Chinese security?

Held out for concession is not resisting.

Having turkey to be pro china is too much to pay. How much will china have to give to satisfy turkey.

Iran and china have naval drill, even Saudis haven't reach this yet.

Saudis restore everything to Syria without condition, why not turkey just leave.

French also said to have independence from US, so not that big issue.

I agree china should keep Erdogan in power, but also have to isolating turkey at the same time to get better relation with neighbors.

Turkey and Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood who are the opponents of the current government in Egypt. The local citizens might not think of Turkey as an opponent but the Egyptian government likely does. They also supported the insurgents in Syria, the Free Syrian Army.

tphuang said:

so you don't have any proof that Iran is most pro-China.

you obviously haven't been following things

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You seem to be unable to assess these countries on their whole history except for the last 12 months.

If you think that Saudi Arabia is now a Chinese ally and can't return to a new republican president of the US then I'm not sure what to say except you might get a bad surprise once Trump is back. They haven't stopped military cooperation with the US, have they? They want to have a way back, just in case.

tphuang said:

let's see, Saudi Arabia decides to normalize relationship with Iran & everyone else in GCC odes the same. Saudi Arabia decides to normalize relationship with Syria and Syria is back in the Arab league. Saudi Arabia decides to end the war in Yemen & it's over

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Not all the GCC members followed Saudi Arabia in ending and then normalising relations with Iran. Countries like Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman also don't really matter and Qatar is not friendly with the Saudis. Egypt is really the only major country. Syria and Yemen were obviously part of the deal with Iran. The Saudis have some sway in the Arab league, but most countries have already accepted that Assad has won and they all want to get rid of the refugees.

The Saudis also don't lead the Arab world in their response to Israel. Many countries signed the Abraham accords while the Saudis watched.

I don't understand why you are surprised that the Saudi intervention in Yemen ends when the Saudi troops go home?

tphuang said:

Erdogan shut out US ambassador completely and his FM said to the world that everyone hates America. How do you walk that back?

Why do I care what Turkey did to Syria in the past? It's negotiating peace with Russia & Saudi Arabia on leaving Syria right now. That's all that matters.

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He's widely regarded as a slightly crazy person who occasionally makes extreme statements. But the rhetoric doesn't matter as much as the actions. And you don't need to walk anything back when you're a literal NATO member

Syria is an example of how Turkish objectives are directly clashing with Russia and probably China. I think we can agree that Assad is the best option for Syria. Why do you think that the next Turkish foreign policy adventure will be more positive?

You have to be very careful when reading media about US allies. The western media will take and amplify the myths these countries have about themselves.