Russian Su-57 Aircraft Thread (PAK-FA and IAF FGFA)

[A Bar Brother]

I think the whole point lost in this is that the F-35 program has been highly transparent about the nature of the fire incident; the probable cause; and ongoing status on resolution. There is no equivalence on the PAK-FA problem as so many posts earlier were just on whether the Russians actially repaired the plane let alone the cause and resolution. Whether the hypothetical of the Indians might be allowed to inspect the damage to the F-35 is really irrelevant because (i) as if the Indians had the technical capabilities since it took the experts some time to make a determination; and (ii) the level of transparency offered by the US would provide assurance, I don't think any of the other partners requested for an independent assessment.

The F-35 is not a strategic program for the USAF, it is an export project. Let's see if there is any real kind of news about the LRS-B and other similar programs, especially the ones that are Black projects.

Basically, PAKFA/FGFA are black projects in India and Russia. This is what they mean by strategic programs.

See if you find any type of reliable information on the Super Sukhoi project. Even that is a strategic program for the IAF. But you will find humongous amount of information on LCA.

 

[Brumby]

The F-35 is not a strategic program for the USAF, it is an export project.

You are entitled to your opinion but not to your own facts. When the F-35 program is said and done, approx. 3100 plus units will be produced and exports based on planned and expected will account for roughly 20 % of the total number. This program is the biggest in US history and when complete, will constitute essentially the US fighter inventory (bar F-22). It is as strategic as it can get as reflected in terms of spending and implications to the US defence.

Either you don't understand what you write or you just want to have your own definition of terms to suit your arquments. Please think before you write.

 

[A Bar Brother]

You are entitled to your opinion but not to your own facts. When the F-35 program is said and done, approx. 3100 plus units will be produced and exports based on planned and expected will account for roughly 20 % of the total number. This program is the biggest in US history and when complete, will constitute essentially the US fighter inventory (bar F-22). It is as strategic as it can get as reflected in terms of spending and implications to the US defence.

Either you don't understand what you write or you just want to have your own definition of terms to suit your arquments. Please think before you write.

Let me rephrase. The F-35 isn't a black program. The FGFA is a black program. We know more about the F-35 because it isn't a black program. We know very little about the FGFA because it is a black program.

We know very little about Arihant because it is a black program. We know very little about the T-90 because it is a black program. We know a lot about the LCA because it isn't a black program. We know a lot about the Mig-29 and Mirage-2000 because they aren't black programs. But we know very little about the Super MKI because it is a black program.

I hope this makes things clear.

As for what is a black program. This might give you a clue.

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Mark Gunzinger, a retired Air Force official and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, argued that the mystery around the jet isn't a bad thing.

"We don't know performance specifics in terms of range, payload, low observability, what weapons, what missions, radar capabilities — all these specific performance details," he said. "Nor should we. Those should not be announced publicly. It is a black program and those kind of details now would do nothing but give our potential enemies more time to develop countermeasures."

Now you know the difference in the secrecy between FGFA and F-35. The word that is used in India for a black program is "strategic" program. I understand why you were confused the first time. But this should have made it all crystal clear.

We know the performance specifics of the F-35. We know the range, payload, some LO characteristics, we know most of the weapons to be used, we have an idea about the radar capabilities. Hence, not a strategic program or black program.

However for the FGFA, we don't know the range, payload requirements, LO characteristics, very little of the weapons (only speculations), and zero capabilities about the radar. Hence, strategic program or black program.

Now you know why I laugh when someone comes up with minutes of IAF meetings regarding the FGFA or even speculations.

 

[Air Force Brat]

I thought Jeff solved it for us. We are just nitpicking. Crash, write-off, Class A etc don't matter. The point I'm making is neither are available for flying as of now.



India is not YET a partner in the FGFA either. Not until the contract is signed. The amount of money spent by India on the FGFA to date has been $295 Million. Is that enough for us to interfere in the program? Even in 1996, the IAF paid over $550 Million for the MKI.

I'm pretty sure that even though the Indian team were not allowed to actually see the aircraft, they were eventually briefed once the report was ready. And while true that an Indian team was present for the test, there was no official news from either Russia or India that the team was denied access to the aircraft. As of now that is just media speculation. We don't even know if the team actually wanted to see the aircraft.

Jeff and I are on the same page Bar, your inaccuracy in reporting a "crash" is yet again another example of you playing fast and lose with the truth. In fact there was NO crash, and no airframe damage caused flight ops, but by the post landing fire.
The team sent by India to observe a test flight of 055, in order to affirm that indeed progress is being made on PAK-FA, were disappointed to see that 055 caught fire on landing, no doubt the Russians weren't at all happy, but the Indians didn't even get a chance to survey the damage?? They went to "check-up" on the Russians progress on Pak-Fa, and you suggest they weren't interested in looking at 055,,,, there is NO WAY.

 

[A Bar Brother]

Jeff and I are on the same page Bar, your inaccuracy in reporting a "crash" is yet again another example of you playing fast and lose with the truth. In fact there was NO crash, and no airframe damage caused flight ops, but by the post landing fire.
The team sent by India to observe a test flight of 055, in order to affirm that indeed progress is being made on PAK-FA, were disappointed to see that 055 caught fire on landing, no doubt the Russians weren't at all happy, but the Indians didn't even get a chance to survey the damage??

I still don't get why you believe the Russians are obligated to allow the Indian team to survey the damage. It doesn't make sense to me. I doubt LM allowed the F-35 partners to do the same for the F-35's damage.

You are looking for a conspiracy when there is none.

They went to "check-up" on the Russians progress on Pak-Fa, and you suggest they weren't interested in looking at 055,,,, there is NO WAY.

I was talking about after the fire, not the flight test.

 

[Broccoli]

It will be at least 10 more years before the PAKFA is offered up for export, maybe more. Countries will be a lot richer by then.

All Flanker customers today are potential PAKFA customers. Vietnam, Algeria and Venezuela are right on top of the list in the immediate future. Future customers will include Malaysia and Indonesia. Malaysia generally likes to buy what IAF buys. Apart from that a few African countries may open up once India gets into the fighter export market.

In 10 years time Malaysia and few other Asian nations could be already flying F-35. Venezuela is teetering on collapse and before 2020 they could have pro-American government making decisions.

2020+ there will be a lot of competition in fighter markets and many poorer countries might go with something like the Textron Scorpion instead of buying "real fighter".

 

[Brumby]

Let me rephrase. The F-35 isn't a black program. The FGFA is a black program. We know more about the F-35 because it isn't a black program. We know very little about the FGFA because it is a black program.

A black program by meaning and intent is a covert program. You don't hear about it and neither you know anything of it. What you know is by inference and simply speculation until such time it is revealed e.g. F-117 program.

You are spinning stuff that is simply unnecessary. The Russians are not known for transparency - we get that The US in contrast is just much more transparent except for porgrams where they want to put a lid on them. This is yet another example where you have the propensity to take sometime rather straight forward into outer orbit.

Now you know the difference in the secrecy between FGFA and F-35. The word that is used in India for a black program is "strategic" program. I understand why you were confused the first time. But this should have made it all crystal clear.

I wasn't confused. I was simply calling out a gross misrepresentation of facts. I am satisfied that you have to back peddle and would not prolong anymore a conversation that I know you will extend it just to have the last say. I am done with this.

 

[Air Force Brat]

I still don't get why you believe the Russians are obligated to allow the Indian team to survey the damage. It doesn't make sense to me. I doubt LM allowed the F-35 partners to do the same for the F-35's damage.

You are looking for a conspiracy when there is none.



I was talking about after the fire, not the flight test.

The fire occurred during the landing roll-out on the flight test ace, yes they want to see it, and yes they want full disclosure, isn't that what a joint venture entails. The Russians did not want them to know the aircraft was a total loss.
They are likely afraid the Indians will walk???

 

[A Bar Brother]

In 10 years time Malaysia and few other Asian nations could be already flying F-35. Venezuela is teetering on collapse and before 2020 they could have pro-American government making decisions.

Malaysia generally buys whatever IAF buys. They did that with the MKI and they wanted in on the Rafale deal also. Of course finances will be a key consideration even to them.

Too early to talk about Venezeula. 2020 is a long time in politics. Being pro-American doesn't mean they won't buy Russian. Malaysia is also pro-American and buys Su-30s.

2020+ there will be a lot of competition in fighter markets and many poorer countries might go with something like the Textron Scorpion instead of buying "real fighter".

A lot of those "poor" countries will be rich enough by 2025. A lot of these countries are growing at 5%+. And PAKFA will be cleared for export after many years.

Anyway I suppose you are trying to say the PAKFA has no chance for export. So let's leave it at that.

 

[A Bar Brother]

A black program by meaning and intent is a covert program. You don't hear about it and neither you know anything of it. What you know is by inference and simply speculation until such time it is revealed e.g. F-117 program.

You are confusing US black programs to Indian black programs. You are expecting the same levels of secrecy when the Indian industrial complex isn't as capable. That is not possible as long as India has to import high level equipment. Regardless, FGFA is a black program in India.

Arihant is a typical example of a black program in India. What do you know about it? Nothing. It is being done indigenously, so the secrecy levels are much higher than in the FGFA program. The Russian involvement means some levels of classification are lost due to the need for govt clearances. But it doesn't change the fact that it is a black program. What do we know about the FGFA program? Literally nothing.

Indigenous programs that are strategic in nature have the same secrecy levels as the black programs in the US, like our nuclear program. We know very little about it in comparison to the US nuclear program because of the international treaties.

You are spinning stuff that is simply unnecessary. The Russians are not known for transparency - we get that The US in contrast is just much more transparent except for porgrams where they want to put a lid on them. This is yet another example where you have the propensity to take sometime rather straight forward into outer orbit.

I wasn't confused. I was simply calling out a gross misrepresentation of facts. I am satisfied that you have to back peddle and would not prolong anymore a conversation that I know you will extend it just to have the last say. I am done with this.

Please quit it. I know the difference between strategic programs and non-strategic programs in India. You clearly don't. I would recommend you avoid replying to my posts. I would do the same to you.