Russian Su-57 Aircraft Thread (PAK-FA and IAF FGFA)

[Air Force Brat]

I normally don't follow Russian military news but the few that I do like on the PAK-FA suggest to me it is basically propaganda rather than news. I don't actually get any information out of it even after such long statement from the news release. For example, telling us 55 T-50's will be delivered by 2020 is basically propaganda because it will be another 5 years before anyone can hold them accountable to that statement. What about telling us whether production has commenced and when is the first delivery expected and a schedule leading into 2016. What is easier to determine, the next next 12 months or the next 5 years?

Yes sir, there is a great deal of propaganda, but there is also a very real airplane at stake here, and if even 3/4s of the promises are kept, it will be a very capable airplane. Many times with a cutting edge project, your time frame will slip, particularly with cutting edge technology, so no doubt the Russians need to keep 6-1, just to get back in the game if they are planning on delivering aircraft to the VVS.
The fact that the Indian team were not allowed to view O55 is in fact a real slap, but necessary for the Russians to keep them on board, and I have NO doubt that the Russians will up the game and deliver aircraft to the Indians. The Indians are applying a lot of pressure, and Russia cannot afford to lose this deal, it is very important on so many levels, mostly that without the cash the Indians bring, PAK-FA will be so far behind schedule, that the Russians themselves feel a pinch.
So in spite of all the rhetoric, the Russian have to have PAK-FA, and they have to have the financial help the Indians can and will supply?
So there will be aircraft delivered, when is anybody's guess, but they will kick it in gear, just like the Vik, and there will be currency exchanged.

 

[A Bar Brother]

Well, there ya go kids, now why do you think the Russians refused to allow the Indian team observing the test flight of 055 to examine the aircraft post fire?? There's a very logical explanation, in light of the past conversations on full JV and full disclosure, I would only state once again for the record--NYET Komrade! It certainly appears that Deino, TP, and Jeff's cautionary warnings were well founded,,, I would dare say that the PAK-FA deal is in jeopardy, no doubt at all that the Indians are angry, and disappointed.

I will say that I expect Russia will make a full on press to keep the Indian's onboard with this project, they know the consequences of having to go it alone on this bird? They did after all manage to deliver the Vik, and I would say that actually turned out rather well so far, I expect they will clean up their act, and I have no doubt the Indians will press for more much sooner, especially if indeed Sukhoi starts delivering T-50s to the VVS? this year?? I just don't see that happening either??? but we shall see?

The exact opposite actually. The Rafale deal is in jeopardy. It appears the FGFA deal will get a major overhaul, with IAF directly buying the Russian single seaters a few years before the FGFA is ready.

There was nothing wrong with the Russians not showing off the 5th prototype to the Indian team. We are yet to sign the development contract. The argument was more realistic if the contract was actually signed.

 

[A Bar Brother]

I normally don't follow Russian military news but the few that I do like on the PAK-FA suggest to me it is basically propaganda rather than news. I don't actually get any information out of it even after such long statement from the news release. For example, telling us 55 T-50's will be delivered by 2020 is basically propaganda because it will be another 5 years before anyone can hold them accountable to that statement. What about telling us whether production has commenced and when is the first delivery expected and a schedule leading into 2016. What is easier to determine, the next next 12 months or the next 5 years?

In legal terms, the Russian govt has approved the budget for 55 T-50s until 2020. That's their state armament plan for the period between 2011 and 2020. The next decade will see a new plan. So that's how we know about the 55 T-50s. Apart from that we don't even know how many are expected to be inducted in total.

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And the Russians reveal information "after" the plan has initiated. So they will let us know when production begins around the time production actually begins. You have unrealistic expectations from what is essentially a communist nation.

Even among democratic nations, India is as secretive as Russia. I mean, you already know about how secretive the Arihant was. When India signed the MKI deal, nobody knew the numbers would go up to 270 and maybe more. That's unlike in the US where everybody knows exactly how many F-35s are planned for induction. If more are planned, we will know a decade earlier about the increase in numbers. The system in Russia/India and US/west simply works differently, so you can't hold other countries to the same standards as the US or other western countries.

 

[Broccoli]

205 total orders is not so bad and that includes, Russian, Indian, and exports.

What countries are potential customers of PAK-FA? It's much more expensive than older Russian fighters. Traditional customers like Venezuela and many African countries are suffering from economical problems and wealthy Arab countries usually buy western fighters.

There would be much more export potential if it was cheaper light fighter.

 

[A Bar Brother]

The fact that the Indian team were not allowed to view O55 is in fact a real slap,

No it isn't. Since we signed the DTTI with the US, will the US allow us to check the F-35 crash as well? It may help the IN decide if they want the F-35 or not.

Until the deal for FGFA is signed, they can deny all access to us. It isn't a "slap" of any kind.

 

[A Bar Brother]

What countries are potential customers of PAK-FA? It's much more expensive than older Russian fighters. Traditional customers like Venezuela and many African countries are suffering from economical problems and wealthy Arab countries usually buy western fighters.

It will be at least 10 more years before the PAKFA is offered up for export, maybe more. Countries will be a lot richer by then.

All Flanker customers today are potential PAKFA customers. Vietnam, Algeria and Venezuela are right on top of the list in the immediate future. Future customers will include Malaysia and Indonesia. Malaysia generally likes to buy what IAF buys. Apart from that a few African countries may open up once India gets into the fighter export market.

 

[Brumby]

Yes sir, there is a great deal of propaganda, but there is also a very real airplane at stake here, and if even 3/4s of the promises are kept, it will be a very capable airplane. Many times with a cutting edge project, your time frame will slip, particularly with cutting edge technology, so no doubt the Russians need to keep 6-1, just to get back in the game if they are planning on delivering aircraft to the VVS.
The fact that the Indian team were not allowed to view O55 is in fact a real slap, but necessary for the Russians to keep them on board, and I have NO doubt that the Russians will up the game and deliver aircraft to the Indians. The Indians are applying a lot of pressure, and Russia cannot afford to lose this deal, it is very important on so many levels, mostly that without the cash the Indians bring, PAK-FA will be so far behind schedule, that the Russians themselves feel a pinch.
So in spite of all the rhetoric, the Russian have to have PAK-FA, and they have to have the financial help the Indians can and will supply?
So there will be aircraft delivered, when is anybody's guess, but they will kick it in gear, just like the Vik, and there will be currency exchanged.

There is no doubt projects such as PAK-FA will slip in timeline because they are after all complex projects. I am sure a plane will be delivered - eventually. It is the law of unmitigated optimism where timelines are over-optimistic and costs often under-budgeted. I think there is a general rule on development that is quite reliable as a ball park on where things will end up. Add 1/3 to the timeline and 50 % to the cost and that is likley where things will be eventually.

I just have two beef with the Russian program. I don't expect much transparency but at least provide some meaningful information even if it is minimal but not propaganda cow manure. Secondly, the surrounding facts on the program would suggest that some of the details don't add up to the official position and timelines, In otherw words, you know you are getting the manure but you can't pin it down because of the escape nature of their announcements.

 

[Air Force Brat]

No it isn't. Since we signed the DTTI with the US, will the US allow us to check the F-35 crash as well? It may help the IN decide if they want the F-35 or not.

Until the deal for FGFA is signed, they can deny all access to us. It isn't a "slap" of any kind.

Bar, there has been no F-35 crash! really, just as there has been no PAK-FA crash, but both engine fires are no doubt Class A incidents, and resulted in the apparent destruction of those individual airframes.
India, is NOT an F-35 partner, they are not!, They have however spent lots of bucks on PAK-FA, the Indian team were there watching 055s flight demo, when upon touch down and roll out a fire broke out on the starboard engine, the Indian team that were watching the flight demo, were denied access to the aircraft.
Bet me that those Indian gents weren't POed
To equate the fire on PAK-FA, where India has made a substantial cash investment in the aircraft because it is slated to be a joint venture, with the fire on the F-35, where India has made no real contribution? is to deliberately distort the arrangement.

 

[Brumby]

Bar, there has been no F-35 crash! really, just as there has been no PAK-FA crash, but both engine fires are no doubt Class A incidents, and resulted in the apparent destruction of those individual airframes.
India, is NOT an F-35 partner, they are not!, They have however spent lots of bucks on PAK-FA, the Indian team were there watching 055s flight demo, when upon touch down and roll out a fire broke out on the starboard engine, the Indian team that were watching the flight demo, were denied access to the aircraft.
Bet me that those Indian gents weren't POed
To equate the fire on PAK-FA, where India has made a substantial cash investment in the aircraft because it is slated to be a joint venture, with the fire on the F-35, where India has made no real contribution? is to deliberately distort the arrangement.

I think the whole point lost in this is that the F-35 program has been highly transparent about the nature of the fire incident; the probable cause; and ongoing status on resolution. There is no equivalence on the PAK-FA problem as so many posts earlier were just on whether the Russians actually repaired the plane let alone the cause and resolution. Whether the hypothetical of the Indians might be allowed to inspect the damage to the F-35 is really irrelevant because (i) as if the Indians had the technical capabilities since it took the experts some time to make a determination; and (ii) the level of transparency offered by the US would provide assurance. I don't think any of the other partners requested an independent assessment.

 

[A Bar Brother]

Bar, there has been no F-35 crash! really, just as there has been no PAK-FA crash, but both engine fires are no doubt Class A incidents, and resulted in the apparent destruction of those individual airframes.

I thought Jeff solved it for us. We are just nitpicking. Crash, write-off, Class A etc don't matter. The point I'm making is neither are available for flying as of now.

India, is NOT an F-35 partner, they are not!,

India is not YET a partner in the FGFA either. Not until the contract is signed. The amount of money spent by India on the FGFA to date has been $295 Million. Is that enough for us to interfere in the program? Even in 1996, the IAF paid over $550 Million for the MKI.

I'm pretty sure that even though the Indian team were not allowed to actually see the aircraft, they were eventually briefed once the report was ready. And while true that an Indian team was present for the test, there was no official news from either Russia or India that the team was denied access to the aircraft. As of now that is just media speculation. We don't even know if the team actually wanted to see the aircraft.