Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!
- Thread starter Finn McCool
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Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
The signed by Russia suggests this is not about returning to the status quo:
This seems to mean Russia will return to South Ossetia, but Georgia will not. At the same time Russia has made additions which suggest even more that this is not a return to the status quo:
Source:
The signed by Russia suggests this is not about returning to the status quo:
This seems to mean Russia will return to South Ossetia, but Georgia will not. At the same time Russia has made additions which suggest even more that this is not a return to the status quo:
Source:
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
If possible, I'd like to ask everyone to post source for their articles. There's too much misinformation being passed around.
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The huge, unspoken concern in the Georgia-Russia conflict has been oil. Early reports contend that pipelines running through Tbilisi from the Caspian Sea oil fields were unsuccessfully targeted by the Russian air force which has employed front-line Tu-22M3 bombers in the conflict.
The stout Georgian air defenses, one of the few effective elements of their military, have shot down some Russian Su-25s with shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, say European-based U.S. officials. The heavier SA-11 Buk-M1 also appears to have contributed to the Frogfoot strike fighter losses and was certainly the cause of the Backfire bomber’s loss, say U.S.-based analysts.
In the past few years, Russia has used the cutoff of oil exports to punish Latvia and Estonia. Intercepting or damaging the Georgians' pipelines would be a heavy blow. But just the insecurity to oil supplies that fighting in the region has brought could do even greater harm both to Georgia and the West if investors chose to play it safe and buy oil through more secure venues.
At least one of the pipelines is also near the line of farthest advance by the Russian Army between Gori and Tbilisi. The three major pipelines that go through Georgia offer direct economic competition to Russian pipelines. However, Georgian officials thought the pipelines would buy them political and economic stability and the support of the West whose economies are being battered by high oil prices.
The World Bank-financed oil pipelines connect the Azer-Chirag-Gunehli oil fields in the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan’s Sangachal Terminal with seaport oil terminals in Supsa, Georgia on the Black Sea and Ceyhan, Turkey on the Mediterranean.
With reporting by Frank Morring and Robert Wall.
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Regardless of Russian AF losses, the match up is lopsided. Russia can afford the losses and easily replace them, versus Georgia cannot. Whatever hardware that Georgia loses, that's it.
I've heard reports that the Russians deployed T-80 MBT's. But so far I've only seen upgraded T-72's from both sides. It's also interesting to note that the T-72's all had ERA upgrades but were penetrated and destroyed anyway. I suspect actual tank vs. tank battles were few (urban environment), and most of the MBT kills were from RPG's and ATGM's.
"Regime change"
Renewed Georgian political turmoil was apparent only hours after the Russian ceasefire went into effect, with widespread Georgian media reports that Nino Burjanadze, a former prime minister recently fallen out with Saakashvili, broadly hinting she intended to challenge him sooner rather than later.
'This is not the time to make political attacks ... with Russian tanks only a few kilometres from our capital,' she said. 'There will be time for determining responsibility and guilt later on.'
A new Georgian political party led by Boujanadze appeared to be forming and would be announced officially in coming weeks, Georgian political observers said.
My prediction: Saakashvili will be taken down from within by vultures.
If possible, I'd like to ask everyone to post source for their articles. There's too much misinformation being passed around.
=======
The huge, unspoken concern in the Georgia-Russia conflict has been oil. Early reports contend that pipelines running through Tbilisi from the Caspian Sea oil fields were unsuccessfully targeted by the Russian air force which has employed front-line Tu-22M3 bombers in the conflict.
The stout Georgian air defenses, one of the few effective elements of their military, have shot down some Russian Su-25s with shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, say European-based U.S. officials. The heavier SA-11 Buk-M1 also appears to have contributed to the Frogfoot strike fighter losses and was certainly the cause of the Backfire bomber’s loss, say U.S.-based analysts.
In the past few years, Russia has used the cutoff of oil exports to punish Latvia and Estonia. Intercepting or damaging the Georgians' pipelines would be a heavy blow. But just the insecurity to oil supplies that fighting in the region has brought could do even greater harm both to Georgia and the West if investors chose to play it safe and buy oil through more secure venues.
At least one of the pipelines is also near the line of farthest advance by the Russian Army between Gori and Tbilisi. The three major pipelines that go through Georgia offer direct economic competition to Russian pipelines. However, Georgian officials thought the pipelines would buy them political and economic stability and the support of the West whose economies are being battered by high oil prices.
The World Bank-financed oil pipelines connect the Azer-Chirag-Gunehli oil fields in the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan’s Sangachal Terminal with seaport oil terminals in Supsa, Georgia on the Black Sea and Ceyhan, Turkey on the Mediterranean.
With reporting by Frank Morring and Robert Wall.
==========
Regardless of Russian AF losses, the match up is lopsided. Russia can afford the losses and easily replace them, versus Georgia cannot. Whatever hardware that Georgia loses, that's it.
I've heard reports that the Russians deployed T-80 MBT's. But so far I've only seen upgraded T-72's from both sides. It's also interesting to note that the T-72's all had ERA upgrades but were penetrated and destroyed anyway. I suspect actual tank vs. tank battles were few (urban environment), and most of the MBT kills were from RPG's and ATGM's.
"Regime change"
Renewed Georgian political turmoil was apparent only hours after the Russian ceasefire went into effect, with widespread Georgian media reports that Nino Burjanadze, a former prime minister recently fallen out with Saakashvili, broadly hinting she intended to challenge him sooner rather than later.
'This is not the time to make political attacks ... with Russian tanks only a few kilometres from our capital,' she said. 'There will be time for determining responsibility and guilt later on.'
A new Georgian political party led by Boujanadze appeared to be forming and would be announced officially in coming weeks, Georgian political observers said.
My prediction: Saakashvili will be taken down from within by vultures.
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Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
Speaking as somebody who has been predicting this form of Russian action and outcome in both Georgia and the Ukraine since early this year, I am curious to know if any members here have been surprised by both either the events or the outcome?
Speaking as somebody who has been predicting this form of Russian action and outcome in both Georgia and the Ukraine since early this year, I am curious to know if any members here have been surprised by both either the events or the outcome?
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
I've been expecting this for years and it actually pretty much lined up with my initial expectations for how it would turn out. Russia focused most of its force in Abkhazia and South Ossetia launched a major air campaign to demolish Georgia's air defense and seize control of Georgian airspace and blocked off Georgia's coast. Once Abkhazia and South Ossetia were completely taken Russia pushed for peace.
Now we see Russia maneuvering to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia by calling for a demilitarized zone around the regions with no Georgian forces to be allowed in the separatist republics. It's possible the Duma and Federal Council will move in some time to formally recognize both as independent at which point Russia would begin the process of bring them into the Russian Federation or possible the Union of Russia and Belarus.
There's probably going to be a ripple effect from this conflict, possibly making a return to war in Nagorno-Karabakh inevitable this year.
I've been expecting this for years and it actually pretty much lined up with my initial expectations for how it would turn out. Russia focused most of its force in Abkhazia and South Ossetia launched a major air campaign to demolish Georgia's air defense and seize control of Georgian airspace and blocked off Georgia's coast. Once Abkhazia and South Ossetia were completely taken Russia pushed for peace.
Now we see Russia maneuvering to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia by calling for a demilitarized zone around the regions with no Georgian forces to be allowed in the separatist republics. It's possible the Duma and Federal Council will move in some time to formally recognize both as independent at which point Russia would begin the process of bring them into the Russian Federation or possible the Union of Russia and Belarus.
There's probably going to be a ripple effect from this conflict, possibly making a return to war in Nagorno-Karabakh inevitable this year.
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
I'm more surprised with Georgian's suicidal act of invading South Ossetia than Russian reaction to the invasion. Russian's action is understandable, but I still don't understand why Georgians think they can get away with it.
I'm more surprised with Georgian's suicidal act of invading South Ossetia than Russian reaction to the invasion. Russian's action is understandable, but I still don't understand why Georgians think they can get away with it.
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
As this conflict continued i became more and more suspect that Russia's objective was to change Georgia's govt. But now we see the real objective was actually getting rid of Saakashvili himself. With the guns silent now we can assume Russia feels that he would go one way or the other...
This conflict has been brewing for some time now, as far back as Kosovo and Yugoslavia you could argue. Certain western actions, like encouraging "colour revolutions" in former Soviet states, eastward expansion of NATO and ABM shield in Poland & Czech Republic etc etc, just cornered Russia more and more.... until finally their anger exploded on poor little Georgia.
And Russia's message to NATO and eastern Europe could not have been sent more crystal clearly.
As this conflict continued i became more and more suspect that Russia's objective was to change Georgia's govt. But now we see the real objective was actually getting rid of Saakashvili himself. With the guns silent now we can assume Russia feels that he would go one way or the other...
This conflict has been brewing for some time now, as far back as Kosovo and Yugoslavia you could argue. Certain western actions, like encouraging "colour revolutions" in former Soviet states, eastward expansion of NATO and ABM shield in Poland & Czech Republic etc etc, just cornered Russia more and more.... until finally their anger exploded on poor little Georgia.
And Russia's message to NATO and eastern Europe could not have been sent more crystal clearly.
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
For those of you intrested I have posted many photos of the conflict here;
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/showthread.php?t=3075&page=22
The photos continue for two more pages after the first post about the conflict.
For those of you intrested I have posted many photos of the conflict here;
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/showthread.php?t=3075&page=22
The photos continue for two more pages after the first post about the conflict.
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
In a way, it's neither surprising nor unexpected; but in the actual event, it is still rather shocking. I mean, obviously Russia would like to reassert its centuries-old claims of primacy in the area, but it is still a bit of a jolt to actually see it happen. But this is just the beginning, and not just for Georgia or even the rest of the Caucasus, but for much of Eastern Europe. Regardless of regime, Czarist, Communist, or whatever, Russia's definition of what constitutes its national interests never fundamentally change.
The Russians are going to try to grind Georgia down diplomatically, politically, economically, etc., until a Georgian Government takes power that is amenable to Russia's policies. This is probably going to last for a long time. And always at least implicitly backed by the threat of or the actual use of force.
Speaking of Russian interests, check out this testimony before Congress two months ago by a member of the Hudson Institute:
, Testimony of Zeyno Baran before the Council on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, 12 June, 2008:
Edited to Add:
It seems that Georgian claims that the Russians are violating the new ceasefire are true: both the BBC and CNN are reporting that the Russians are indeed advancing, and Georgian police and civilians are fleeing ahead of them. The US Secretary of State has held a press conference to confirm this.
In a way, it's neither surprising nor unexpected; but in the actual event, it is still rather shocking. I mean, obviously Russia would like to reassert its centuries-old claims of primacy in the area, but it is still a bit of a jolt to actually see it happen. But this is just the beginning, and not just for Georgia or even the rest of the Caucasus, but for much of Eastern Europe. Regardless of regime, Czarist, Communist, or whatever, Russia's definition of what constitutes its national interests never fundamentally change.
The Russians are going to try to grind Georgia down diplomatically, politically, economically, etc., until a Georgian Government takes power that is amenable to Russia's policies. This is probably going to last for a long time. And always at least implicitly backed by the threat of or the actual use of force.
Speaking of Russian interests, check out this testimony before Congress two months ago by a member of the Hudson Institute:
, Testimony of Zeyno Baran before the Council on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, 12 June, 2008:
Edited to Add:
It seems that Georgian claims that the Russians are violating the new ceasefire are true: both the BBC and CNN are reporting that the Russians are indeed advancing, and Georgian police and civilians are fleeing ahead of them. The US Secretary of State has held a press conference to confirm this.
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