Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!

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FugitiveVisions

Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

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by Jim Mannion

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The US military was surprised by the timing and swiftness of the Russian military's move into South Ossetia and is still trying to sort out what happened, a US defense official said Monday.

Russian forces surged into the breakaway region last week after weeks of clashes, threats and warnings between Tblisi and Moscow which culminated August 6 in a two-day Georgian offensive into South Ossetia.

That the two countries were on a collision course was no surprise to anyone, but the devastating Russian response was not expected, officials said.

"We were tracking it earlier in that week and we knew that things were escalating," said a military official, who asked not to be identified. "I can tell you it moved quicker than we anticipated that first day."

But how it unfolded is still unclear, clouded by conflicting claims from both sides.

"I think a lot of what you're asking needs to be ironed out," said the official.

"Some of these little issues are definitely still big questions in this event -- What was the intent? Who started it? Why did they start it? And why weren't they prepared to defend what they started?"

President George W. Bush, who urged Moscow to cease fire and return to pre-August 6 positions, charged in a televised statement that Russia's intention appeared to be depose Georgia's democratically elected president.

But the extent of the Russian operation remained unclear to US officials on Monday.

Georgian officials said Russian troops had moved out of South Ossetia into Georgia proper, occupying the city of Gori while Georgian troops were retreating to the capital.

But US defense officials said they were unable to corroborate the Georgian claims.

"We don't see anything that supports they are in Gori," said a defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "I don't know why the Georgians are saying that."
"That assessment is ongoing," said Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman.

The United States has among the most powerful tools for monitoring brewing conflicts, from spy satellites to reconnaissance aircraft and drones capable of scooping up radio signals or capture real-time images of forces on the ground.

But the extent to which they were trained on this remote conflict before it turned violent is not known.

The Russians, however, warned on August 3 of a growing threat of "large scale military conflict" between Georgia and South Ossetia.

The State Department issued a mild statement on August 5 urging Moscow to refrain from provocative actions, but gave no hint that it was aware that military action either by Georgia or Russia was in the offing.

Officials have suggested the fighting was not seen as an immediate threat, in part because there were only about 95 US troops and 35 civilian contractors in the country training Georgian troops for Iraq. And they were not near South Ossetia.

Some 1,650 US troops conducted a joint exercise with the Georgian military in mid-July. But they were out of the country when the hostilities flared.

At around the same time, the Russian military deployed 8,000 troops to the North Caucases for counter-terrorism exercises that Moscow said were unrelated to the tensions with its southern neighbor.

The US defense official said about 8,000 to 10,000 Russian troops have moved into South Ossetia. They also have flown SU-25, SU-24, SU-27 and TU-22 fighters and bombers during the campaign.

But the official said there was no obvious buildup of Russian forces along the border that signaled an intention to invade.

"Once it did happen they were able to get the forces quickly and it was just a matter of taking the roads in. So it's not as though they were building up forces on the border, waiting," the official said.

"What are their future intentions, I don't know. Obviously they could throw more troops at this if they wanted to," he said.
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I think the first highlighted portion is about as close as you are ever going to hear from an American official that Georgia is the instigator of this current conflict.

What the second highlighted portion also says a lot here. IMO, it's not out of the question that the Georgian president may be trying to bait the Russians into occupying Gori and beyond in order to bring about a Western reaction. In fact, it appears that he is, and has been the second that the war started, doing his best impression of Kosovo in trying to coax a Western intervention. I'm not a psychologist but this guy seems a little unbalanced and out of touch, almost on the verge of being suicidal in some of his actions, abeit highly choreographed actions.

From now on, I will view any claims that come out of his government as deceitful until proven otherwise. And I still think that a full russian invasion is not going to happen.
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

I don't now what to believe when it comes to these reports. When it was first reported, the media said Georgians troops invaded South Ossetia to prevent separatists from breaking away to which the Russians responded. Now all you hear is how the Russians started the war. And reading boards like this was early on talked as if the Russians are the ones getting pounded. How things have changed.
 
SteelBird

SteelBird

Colonel
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

My suggestion is to read news from different source and different side. Don't just read news from the Internet. Sources like TV, radio and newspaper should be more reliable.
 
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alopes

Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

My personal believe is that South Ossetia didn´t had any interest in start a war with Georgia.
South Ossetia was in fact independent and their population, of 70.000 people, were not enough to face a war with Georgian´s army of 30.000 soldiers aproximately.

The Ossetians did downed Georgian´s drones, but they were in a defensive mode, i believe.
Since the drones were endangering South Ossetian´s security.
 
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Maggern

Maggern

Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Indeed. I now regularly check by the norwegian news sites (just to see their perspective), and aside from the casual quote from Putin, not a single Russian official is ever interviewed or given time on the air. Only Georgian officials. No wonder who the Norwegian media is siding with :)

Defensenews.com reports that most of Georgia's command and control abilities have been decimated by Russian airstrikes (I read reports somewhere that a radar station amongst other targets had been hit). This may be the reason why retreating Georgian soldiers are claiming the Russians are in Gori, while neither reporters, nor American analysts or anyone at all for that matter, actually know what the *** is going on on the ground. It seems that Georgian officials have started to lose control of their ground forces, and are having problems getting an overview of the situation. Not that I want to overplay this, but as every single official, analyst and reporter reports differently about the situation, there doesn't seem to be any leadership controlling things and having an overview (aside from perhaps the Russians).

Perhaps the withdrawal from Gori is the Georgians' attempt at regaining command and control over their forces. Withdraw from the chaos of Gori and regroup close to Tblisi in order to shorten supply and communication lines. The fact that Russia seized the base at Senaki and is threatening Gori means Tblisi has little chance of sustaining control over their forces in the west, as the country has been split in two. It almost seems as if Poti is left to fend for itself with what they have, while most Georgian troops are withdrawing to help defend the capital.

Troubling news:
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The Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini announces Italy is ready to send troops to Ossetia if the European Union decides to intervene. I wonder what kind of intervention that would be. A sort of peacekeeping mission or actual heavy combat units deployed to physically stop Russia from advancing further. In any case, this is strong language from a European minister. Basically saying they'd jump on the bandwagon if someone decided to attack Russia.
 
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Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

SteelBird said:
My suggestion is to read news from different source and different side. Don't just read news from the Internet. Sources like TV, radio and newspaper should be more reliable.
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Actually I think the Internet is second only to being there if you know how to use it. You can sometimes find out something which is happening before some of the major news sources report on it.
 
K

kliu0

Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

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Ten thousand troops, 150 tanks, 300 APCs, 15 Ballistic missiles. Russia has begun invasion of Georgia, and most of Georgia's Command bases are destroyed.
 
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Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Kodori Gorge is being invaded by Abkhazia:

Hostilities appeared to broaden as Abkhazia, another Russia-backed rebel region, launched an operation at dawn on Tuesday to force Georgian troops out of the disputed Kodori gorge, Abkhaz Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba said.

"The operation to liberate Kodori gorge has started," he told Russia's Vesti channel. "Our troops are making advances. We are hoping for success." The broadcaster reported intense gunfire in the heights of the Kodori Gorge and bombardment of the area by Abkhaz warplanes.

The operation to oust Georgian troops from the Upper Kodori Gorge began at 6:00 am (0200 GMT), in the latest such operation in several days, Interfax news agency quoted Abkhazia's self-styled defence ministry as saying.

The region’s separatist leader said Russian forces were not involved in the operation, Interfax reported. "The operation is being carried out solely by forces of the Abkhaz army," Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh was quoted as saying.
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Source:
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V

Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Georgian forces remaining in South Ossetia are reportedly
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and leaving the area:

Georgian troops in South Ossetia have been surrounded and are giving themselves up, a senior Russian military official has said.

‘Russian troops are currently disarming the surrounded Georgian forces in South Ossetia,’ Colonel General Anatoly Nagovitsyn, deputy head of the General Staff, told a news conference Monday.

Russian troops are currently forcing all Georgian troops out of Georgian-populated villages in the east and west of the breakaway region, he said.
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Nagovitsyn also said two more Russian military aircraft have been downed in the conflict zone in the past 24 hours, bringing the Air Force’s overall losses to four aircraft. He said Russia has gained full control over Georgian airspace, and was preventing all flights by Georgian combat aircraft.

‘We have eliminated the possibility of an aerial threat from Georgia in the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone,’ Nagovitsyn said.
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It seems that area of the conflict may be coming to a close.
 
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