Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

alopes said:

This is very dangerous and Georgia must back down if we

should escape the worst.

Click to expand...

I think Georgia has backed down. They withdrew from South Ossetia (granted that was largely because they had been militarily defeated there). And they have called for a ceasefire. Also it seems that they have largely stopped offensive operations. Again that's mainly because they simply aren't able to conduct them at this point, but still Georgia is not the one that's escalating now.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Right now it's clear that Russia holds all the cards. I think they'll play their hand as long as they can to maximize the political effects. In the end this means Russian control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

As far as allegations of regime change, I have not seen any indication of attacks on the Georgia state apparatus nor its media. That is pretty telling. The targets have mainly been military bases, staging grounds, airports and manufacturing facilities. The conflict on the ground is ebbing and the Georgians are regrouping, so the best chance for any kind of escalation has already passed.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Utelore, I'm still a bit confused about whether your posts are based on what you think or hope, or that you actually get your information from somewhere. If the information is indeed true, then of course the Russians will have a hard time there.

As per your info that over 100,000 georgian soldiers are dressing up in civilian clothing to fight a guerrilla war, I think it's unlikely for two reasons:
1. Using resources on arming a guerrilla force means diverting resources from conventional forces, which would be a bad move at this point, as most of Georgias Armed Forces are still operational and ready to strike back. A guerrilla strategy rules out any chance of counterattacks and any real organized defence. It basically sacrifices the country to the Russians (like the Afghans reluctantly did).
2. Diplomatically, it would be a disaster for Georgia's case in the UN. As per the Geneva Conventions and International Law, the armed forces of a nation MUST dress in uniforms for easy distinction from civilians. Using this tactic basically shows your contempt for the UN and international law, while also serving your civilian populace on a platter (as Russians would also now target civilians on purpose, to be sure to take out Georgian troops).

Guys, still there's no reason for Russia to actually invade Georgia, and no reports of something like this has appeared. Basically what I see is that Russia is trying to consolidate its hold on Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and not go any further with ground troops. Russia still has some sort of casus belli of keeping troops in these two regions, but they have NO casus belli of invading Georgia proper. How would they defend this action in the UN? It would be impossible.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Jeff Head said:

Bottom line is, the Russians physically invaded another soveriegn country that was dealing with a breakaway province representing a very minute part of the nations entire population.

Click to expand...

I find this interesting, why don't you compare Russia's current position to the USA in Yugoslavia in 1998? While the Yugoslav were dealing with Kosovo who tried to break away and the USA put their hands in. But the fact is that the Georgian made a mistake that they supposed the Russian didn't dare to bomb them.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Hi Maggern and welcome to SDF.

The end game for Russia is undoubtedly regime change, as opposed to occupation/annexation and the end of Georgia's NATO and EU aspirations. I am sure Russia would prefer to achieve this diplomatically and they do have pro Russian politicians in Georgia that could take over the reins.

I imagine that the International Diplomacy is of Russia telling the world that "we can either do this the easy or hard way".

Its also my personal view, that we could be watching unfold, the opening manoeuvres of a "Grand Deal" that involves many of the hot stops in Asia, but that is something that will have to unfold in its own time.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Russia is now said to have some 9,000 troops in Abkhazia and have issued and ultimatum to Georgian forces near Abkhazia which has already expired:

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

American troops found amongst Georgian dead

from newsclip in youtube

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

I doubt that to be true, I would be happy to be proven wrong (with more evidence) please.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

No American troops have been found dead, as far as I know, but bodies of dead American mercenaries have definately been found by the Russians.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

SteelBird said:

I find this interesting, why don't you compare Russia's current position to the USA in Yugoslavia in 1998? While the Yugoslav were dealing with Kosovo who tried to break away and the USA put their hands in. But the fact is that the Georgian made a mistake that they supposed the Russian didn't dare to bomb them.

Click to expand...

I believe that what the US did in Serbia was absolutely wrong and voiced my opposition to it strongly at the time...and still do today. It opened up a pandora's box.

There were significant differences, the main one being that the US used air power alone and did not invade or go in on the ground until an arrangement was forced with that air power...but it was still flat out wrong IMHO and really, if you want my opinion, was conducted by a rogue President (Clinton) who was trying to deflect attention away from his sexual escapades in the White House and his own purgery regarding it. Ultimately he was impeached (but not removed) for those actions.

Anyhow, that is all off topic.

I pray that Russia will stop with the removal of Georgian troops from the Province. If they move on, it will only get worse all around.