Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

I agree with SampanViking. This thread seems to be overflowing of biased and unsourced information. From what I've been reading on BBC, CNN and other news sources (that is, what they report, not what they report the Georgians are stating), the Georgians are getting their asses kicked. One should trust Georgian sources as little as Russian ones. In my experience, the Georgians are just as bad at propaganda as Russia. I'd rather trust Russian claims of their own casualties and Georgian claims of their own casualties than the other way round.

As for the reason the US and the west seems somewhat reluctant to intervene, is perhaps the reason that Georgia has used their armed forces to crush separatism within their territory, which of course is the same type of action the West has complained on both Russia and China for doing for years now. Russia has since the civil war of the 90s had a Security Council mandate on acting as a peacekeeping force in the region, and has as a result of that thousands of peacekeeping troops stationed in South Ossetia. To my knowledge, some of these were killed in the Georgian artillery barriages of the initial invasion of South Ossetia. In one event, a Russian barracks was hit, killing a dozen soldiers. As civilian casualties increased and large parts of Tskhinvali was flattened, Russian forces moved into South Ossetia to, as the Russian goverment claimed, re-establish peace and end the humanitarian crisis.

As for the military statistics here, utelore's numbers seems astronomically overestimated in favour of the Georgians. From what I've read, Georgia has casualties about ten times as great as the Russians. Russians having about 20 dead (with a couple of hundred wounded), while Georgia has about 200 dead and an unknown number wounded. While I'm sure Georgian artillery has taken its toll (as most educated people know, there is little one can do to defend yourself from artillery fire, except actually knocking out the artillery guns), and I'm sure most Russian casualties stems from these barriages, but it seems most of the other elements of Georgian Armed Forces are having difficulties. The Georgian air defence seems to have one hell of a right-hook as well, as they managed to shoot down some planes (two admitted by Russia, while Georgia claims 10+), and a BBC reporter observed a Russian plane being met with fierce anti-aircraft fire as it attacked Georgian positions (was not shot down though). The fact that the Georgians are calling for a cease-fire is perhaps a sign that they are not able to meet this battle as well as they would like to.

I think one reason the Georgians are pulling back to Gori is that as long as they are fighting on South Ossetian soil, the Russians will have some kind of casus belli. If the Georgians can lure the battle onto real Georgian soil, the Russians would be overstepping their pre-announced goals and Georgia would gain large diplomatic sympathy.

As for US forces in the area, only a couple hundred advisors and trainers are in Tblisi, as popeye mentions. The US has said that they will stay out of the conflict and the government are only making sure these guys are alive and their whereabouts are known.

PS: Yay, Gollevainen, another former artilleryman! An M109 gunner salutes you! ff

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

I for one would like to see some news from Russian or Russian friendly sources. All this news from BBC and Western sources I find very skeptical and subtly but nefariously biased.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

RedMercury said:

I for one would like to see some news from Russian or Russian friendly sources. All this news from BBC and Western sources I find very skeptical and subtly but nefariously biased.

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Listen to Russia Today and read their articles. It's all in English too.

They are very Russia-friendly.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms



A video of an aircraft part on fire coming down....can anybody identify it?

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

alopes said:

Well, Russia would not accept less than total withdrawall, which means, if i understood it, that Georgia must demobilize their military forces to a peace situation.

And that seems logical to me.

Why would Russia trust Georgia now, after Georgia had attacked in a treacherous way.
If Georgia don´t demobilize their forces, it means they could attack South Ossetia again, by surprise like they did in the first place.
If Georgia don´t sign an agreement of no aggresseion, they could mobilize and attack again.

Then, why would Russia have all this trouble again a few months or years from now,
if Georgia will only take time to get stronger again, to attack again,

logically, Russia would prefer to attack with full force now that they are already there and while
Georgia isn´t part of NATO.

So Russian position is logical, if Georgia chooses to keep its armys mobilized, it means that they intend to fight the Russians if Russias shows weakness.

This is logical, and the fact that USA ignore this logic, in favour of Goergia getting a political and military victory, by destroyng South Ossetia, shows that
Russia can´t trust USA also.

Russia will not accept to lose to Georgia in this war, i think, and USA ultimatuns for Russia to accept, are endangering the situation.

Russia don´t recognize, any more, Georgia integrity, and i don´t think
that the Destruction of Georgia is worth
this fight between big powers.

Here USA hasn´t the strong hand, and it have to face it or cause Georgia destruction, i believe.

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Reports about who attacked who and when are entirely dependent on who you talk to.

Naturally the Russians are saying that Georgia initiated. Georgia says the seperatists initiated and threatened to bomb the pipeline which they could not tolerate either economically or politically.

Now that missile strikes are apparently being carried out near or at the pipeline, it is difficult to say who really initiated it.

Bottom line is, the Russians physically invaded another soveriegn country that was dealing with a breakaway province representing a very minute part of the nations entire population.

If it had taken several days or a week for Russia to mobilize a relief or attack force, I would have been inclined to believe them...but since those tanks and troops were posied there ready to roll within hours of Georgia's actions, I believe that they were planning it all along and maybe even instigated it.

Now that Georgia has pulled back and is willing to negotiate, I believe that is what Ruissia should do...and would do...if they were interested in just bloodying the Georgian's nose and then turning things back as they were.

But since the Russians show no sign of stopping, and in fact are escalating their actions and movements into Georgia, I believe it is more likely that they intend to despose the Georgian government and install their own puppett.

I hope that is wrong...but time will tell.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Jeff Head said:

If it had taken several days or a week for Russia to mobilize a relief or attack force, I would have been inclined to believe them...but since those tanks and troops were posied there ready to roll within hours of Georgia's actions, I believe that they were planning it all along and maybe even instigated it.

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This was a conflict years in the making and the signs of it were coming for months. Major clashes were occurring as far back as May. Russia had ample time to prepare. On the other hand Georgia was building up its forces on South Ossetia's border in the days leading up to the invasion and declared a unilateral ceasefire hours before the attack on national tv as I recall. That seemed incredibly staged.

I think Georgia had every intention of invading and either lied about an attack from South Ossetia or was betting on it. It's odd though since they should have been fully aware Russia would respond. Maybe Saakashvili thought either he could take all of South Ossetia before Russia got involved or believed their interference would somehow be prevented.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Jeff,
I think the Russians get stopped cold in Gori and wont make it to Tbilisi, In a few more days russia will be facing 120,000 Georgian troops who are now dawning civ clothing and maintaining rifles, This will make the chechen war look like a Sunday picnic.

I on the other hand hope Russia continues to try and take all of Georgia because I know Georgia will fight and will win in the end. I think the first Israeli SPIKE and U.S Javelin ATGW are on there way via Turkey. I also think Georgia will start to spread Russia thin and there lack of C&C with a conscripted force will start to degrade its ability to fight as they will control only what a tank sits on.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

utelore said:

Jeff,
I think the Russians get stopped cold in Gori and wont make it to Tbilisi, In a few more days russia will be facing 120,000 Georgian troops who are now dawning civ clothing and maintaining rifles, This will make the chechen war look like a Sunday picnic.

I on the other hand hope Russia continues to try and take all of Georgia because I know Georgia will fight and will win in the end. I think the first Israeli SPIKE and U.S Javelin ATGW are on there way via Turkey. I also think Georgia will start to spread Russia thin and there lack of C&C with a conscripted force will start to degrade its ability to fight as they will control only what a tank sits on.

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I don't think that the Russians have made a major attack on Gori. Some reports seem to indicate that the Russians made a probe in the direction of Gori fairly soon after the Georgians fell back across the South Ossetian border. That was to see if the Georgians were in good order or if the retreat was disorganized and easy to exploit; apparently it wasn't since the Georgians still control Gori and apparently turned back the attack with losses. But there has not been a major Russian effort to take Gori yet. I have no doubt that the Russians would take the city even if they had to take many losses and a long time. There's really nothing to stop the Russians from taking Tiblisi if they're willing to spend enough lives and time doing so.

On your second paragraph, any Russian effort to install a puppet reigeme or occupy the country will result in guerilla war, another Chechnya on a larger scale for the Russians. That's why I am still hesistant to believe occupation is the Russian goal.

On Sunday, Vice President Dick Cheney said that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States."

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This remark by Cheney is troubling, I think the implications of the phrase "must not go unanswered" are obvious to all.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

utelore said:

Jeff,
I think the Russians get stopped cold in Gori and wont make it to Tbilisi, In a few more days russia will be facing 120,000 Georgian troops who are now dawning civ clothing and maintaining rifles, This will make the chechen war look like a Sunday picnic.

I on the other hand hope Russia continues to try and take all of Georgia because I know Georgia will fight and will win in the end. I think the first Israeli SPIKE and U.S Javelin ATGW are on there way via Turkey. I also think Georgia will start to spread Russia thin and there lack of C&C with a conscripted force will start to degrade its ability to fight as they will control only what a tank sits on.

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I honestly have doubts the US will arm Georgia right now. It won't bode well if the Russians decide to do the same if they go ahead and start arming Iraqi insurgents or start selling weapons on a large scale to Iran in retaliation (or both). US Javelins in Georgia will be met with Kornet-Es and massive amounts of RPG-29s in Iraq. The Russians don't seem to be in the mood of playing games at all....

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

utelore said:

Jeff,
I think the Russians get stopped cold in Gori and wont make it to Tbilisi, In a few more days russia will be facing 120,000 Georgian troops who are now dawning civ clothing and maintaining rifles, This will make the chechen war look like a Sunday picnic.

I on the other hand hope Russia continues to try and take all of Georgia because I know Georgia will fight and will win in the end. I think the first Israeli SPIKE and U.S Javelin ATGW are on there way via Turkey. I also think Georgia will start to spread Russia thin and there lack of C&C with a conscripted force will start to degrade its ability to fight as they will control only what a tank sits on.

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Utelore, i also think that this will not happen this way.

Russia knows exactly what kind of game is happening here.
And that game is strategic, not tactical, not friction one.

Russia is facing a conflict of forces agaisnt the West in their border.

Russia is tryng to solve this diplomatically until now, giving Georgia the dimension of the
fight they have entered.

If Russia would face this war against the West, it will destroy Georgia in a similar way
as Israel did to Lebanon.
Russia will not play Chechyna Three here. This will be nasty if it goes to the end.

And that is why USA is reacting so strongly now, with words.
They know that Russia will not backdown and they aren´t liking to face a limit to their power.
This is very dangerous and Georgia must back down if we
should escape the worst.