Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

The Georgians are claiming that their forces are now out of South Ossetia and are now pressing for a cease fire, which Russia is ignoring.

The BBC has reported that American diplomats are claiming that have been told by Russia that only the removal of the current Georgian Administration will satisfy them. I think we can safely infer that in effect they are demanding the reversal of the Rose Revolution.

This has serious implications for the Ukraine which has substantial pro Russian support in the Eastern Half of the country and in the Crimea. the pro-Russian factions will I am sure be looking at the steadfast support of Russia to both the Ossetians and the Abkhazians and will no doubt feel emboldened.

I do feel vindicated in my assertions that Russia intends to go all the way (albeit by whatever means) in Georgia and I feel pretty confident now that the conflict will spread to the other NATO candidate country Ukraine.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

OK Swosh and Jeff this is the Russian Georgian conflict thread nothing to do with Taiwan so lets keep it out of the equation.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Seems like a Russian/separatist Abkhazian assault on the Kodori Gorge is underway, at least that what major media outlets stated at least 8 to 10 hours ago.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Finn McCool said:

The fighting in the Kodori Gorge is a preliminary operation to clear the way for a larger attack. Putin and Medvedev might not want to do that larger operation but they want the option. If the Georgians can hold on in the Kodori Gorge for, let's say, two days that would an incredible feat. But I don't think it will save them. The Russians will just continue to build up troops, and eventually breakthrough in a big way somewhere if they want to.

On the plus side for the Georgians, their troops from Iraq should be returning right now or sometime soon, and their national call up should really be having effects by now, which will allow them to fill holes in the defences.

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Huge chess playing going on now.

With the US agreeing to fly the Georgian troops from Iraq back to Georgia, Bush is calling a Putin bluff. But is it a bluff?

The Russians do not want reinforcements coming in, that is one reason fro their naval bloackade. Will they impose an air embargo too?

Would they fire on US C-17s or C-141s flying these seasoned Georgian troops back?

I hope the US escorts those troops flights just in case...but that in itself is a dicey thing with combat fighters flying into a war zone.

Very dangerous situation...but one that requires both sides to show strength in order to ensure that they both know they are serious.

Now you have the Ukraine getting involved indicating that they will not allow any Black Sea Fleet vessels that take part in the blackade back into Sevastapol. That is pretty big, because that is Russia's primary port and naval base...but owned by the Ukraine who wants the Russains out of there anyway.

I had hoped that now that Georgia has been pushed back and has also pulled back and called for a ccease fire that it will cool down, but Russia's activities do not look like they are about to stop any time soon.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Jeff Head said:

Huge chess playing going on now.

With the US agreeing to fly the Georgian troops from Iraq back to Georgia, Bush is calling a Putin bluff. But is it a bluff?

The Russians do not want reinforcements coming in, that is one reason fro their naval bloackade. Will they impose an air embargo too?

Would they fire on US C-17s or C-141s flying these seasoned Georgian troops back?

I hope the US escorts those troops flights just in case...but that in itself is a dicey thing with combat fighters flying into a war zone.

Very dangerous situation...but one that requires both sides to show strength in order to ensure that they both know they are serious.

Now you have the Ukraine getting involved indicating that they will not allow any Black Sea Fleet vessels that take part in the blackade back into Sevastapol. That is pretty big, because that is Russia's primary port and naval base...but owned by the Ukraine who wants the Russains out of there anyway.

I had hoped that now that Georgia has been pushed back and has also pulled back and called for a ccease fire that it will cool down, but Russia's activities do not look like they are about to stop any time soon.

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I don´t see a major problem on that.
USA would advise Russia about the timing of the flights and Russia will expect the planes to go away.

Russia can deal with more 2000 soldiers if needed.


What is worrying, in my view, is that USA keep giving Ultimatuns to Russia, they are forcing Russia
to get harder and harder on its position to not appear surrendering to USA
threats.
And, Yes, Ukraine intervention is a serious problem.
But there, the Sevastopol port, Russia would have to leave, sooner or later.
The timing of the Ukraine action is that is wrong, because they are challenging Russia military and power dignity.
And that could flare Russian actions.

The more USA give ultimatuns to Russia, the more bad the situation will get

What USA want from this ultimatuns, anyway?

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Temur Yakobashvili said Russian tanks tried to cross from South Ossetia into the territory of Georgia proper, but were turned back by Georgian forces. He said the tanks apparently were trying to approach Gori, but did not fire on the city of about 50,000.

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Like I thought the Georgians have regrouped to defend Gori and its bridges. The Russians will need to launch a large attack to capture the city.

Russia will only act in "self-defense," Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said at a U.N. Security Council meeting.

"Let's state clearly that we are ready to put an end to the war, that we will withdraw from South Ossetia, that we will sign an agreement on non-use of force," Churkin proposed.

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That is hopeful news. If the UN Ambassador is saying that, we can be hopeful that the Russians are indeed just trying to punish Georgia and kick them out of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, rather than cause reigeme change. If that is the case then the attack on the Kodori Gorge might be the last major engagement. Then again this might just be for public consumption. In any case the Russians won't stop until they expel the Georgians from all of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and that means they must take the Kodori Gorge.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

alopes said:

I don´t see a major problem on that.
USA would advise Russia about the timing of the flights and Russia will expect the planes go away.

Russia can deal with more 2000 soldiers if needed.


What is worry, in my view, is that USA keep given Ultimatuns to Russia, they are forcing Russia
get harder and harder on its position to not appear surrenderign to USA
threats.
And, Yes, Ukraine intervention is a serious problem.
But there, Russia would have to leave, sooner or later.
The timing of the Ukraine action is that is wrong, because they are challenging Russia dignity.
And that could flare Russian actions.

The more USA give ultimatuns to Russia, the more worst the situation will get

What USA want from this ultimatuns, anyway?

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I believe the US wants it back to the status quo, particularly because they do not want the Russians to control that oil line.

And because Georgia has been a very supportive ally of Wahsington in the WOT, particularly in Iraq and the US cannot be perceived as just turning its back on them.

The Georgians are now out of the porvince in question, trying to establish defences around Grodi.

If the Russians stop at the one province, then I believe things will cool down.

But right now, Russia does not look like it is going to be stopping any time soon and the US and other nations are concerned that Putin wants to depose the Georgian regime and either occupy the whole of Georgia, or install a puppet regime that will defacto do the same.

If that continues, you can expect the rhetoric and the support to continue to ramp up.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Apparently the Russians want what amounts to after all (one of their primary strategic objectives), and have told the US Secretary of State that the Georgian President must go.

As to the Georgians holding Gori, they only have two or three Regular Infantry Brigades reinforced with their sole Tank Battalion, and an Artillery Brigade, plus Reservists, to fend off elements of 58th Army reinforced by elements of not less than 3 Airborne formations, Russia's specialists in urban warfare. Gori would be a very tough nut to crack for the Russians, and the Georgians could inflict frightful losses upon them. But if the Russians are sufficiently determined, they can probably overwhelm Gori; the apparent wounding of a Russian Lt.Gen., probably 58th Army's own commander, yesterday was a stroke for the Georgians, but it is likely only to delay things a little. It also indicates the possibility that the committment of the entirety of 58th Army to the fight may only be a matter of time. The is reporting that Gori is now under bombardment by Russian armour and artillery. With no less than 3 Motor Rifle Divisions plus other formations and units at its disposal, and with more or less control of its lines-of-communications right back to the Roki Tunnel and a nearby mountain pass, there quite some doubt that the Georgians would be able to sustain a defence of Gori against 58th Army before they themselves are surrounded and their own lines-of-communication cut.

And this isn't even considering the thousands of Russian troops that are being ferried to a port in southern Abkhazia from the port of Adler in Russia, and using the newly rebuilt railway from there to take them east and north to face the Georgians. The Georgians are claiming that some 10,000-15,000 Russian troops are now facing them in the west (NYT claims 6,000), and that the Georgian town of Zigdidi adjacent to Abkhazia has been approached by Russian armour. It appears the Russians are preparing to be able to launch a killing blow. The seems less and less that is likely to deter Russia from deciding to do so. The diplomatic pressure and tension right now must be extraordinary.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Jeff Head said:

I believe the US wants it back to the status quo, particularly because they do not want the Russians to control that oil line.

And because Georgia has been a very supportive ally of Wahsington in the WOT, particularly in Iraq and the US cannot be perceived as just turning its back on them.

The Georgians are now out of the porvince in question, trying to establish defences around Grodi.

If the Russians stop at the one province, then I believe things will cool down.

But right now, Russia does not look like it is going to be stopping any time soon and the US and other nations are concerned that Putin wants to depose the Georgian regime and either occupy the whole of Georgia, or install a puppet regime that will defacto do the same.

If that continues, you can expect the rhetoric and the support to continue to ramp up.

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Well, Russia would not accept less than total withdrawall, which means, if i understood it, that Georgia must demobilize their military forces to a peace situation.
And that seems logical to me.

Why would Russia trust Georgia now, after Georgia had attacked in a treacherous way.
If Georgia don´t demobilize their forces, it means they could attack South Ossetia again, by surprise like they did in the first place.
If Georgia don´t sign an agreement of no aggresseion, they could mobilize and attack again.

Then, why would Russia have all this trouble again a few months or years from now,
if Georgia will only take time to get stronger again, to attack again,
logically, Russia would prefer to attack with full force now that they are already there and while
Georgia isn´t part of NATO.

So Russian position is logical, if Georgia chooses to keep its armys mobilized, it means that they intend to fight the Russians if Russias shows weakness.
This is logical, and the fact that USA ignore this logic, in favour of Goergia getting a political and military victory, by destroyng South Ossetia, shows that
Russia can´t trust USA also.

Russia will not accept to lose to Georgia in this war, i think, and USA ultimatuns for Russia to accept, are endangering the situation.
Russia don´t recognize, any more, Georgia integrity, and i don´t think
that the Destruction of Georgia is worth
this fight between big powers.
Here USA hasn´t the strong hand, and it have to face it or cause Georgia destruction, i believe.

Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms

Mods note..For all members..Do not bring China Vs Tiawan into the discussion. Period.

bd popeye super moderator.

I hope no US troops are killed, because there are several thousand based in Georgia. If they are, things will take an incredibly dangerous turn.

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There were a couple of thousand US Troops in Georgia just a few weeks ago for some military excersises. But they were removed about 10 days ago....humm..All that's left are some military advisors.