Russia Vs Georgia..a widening crisis!
- Thread starter Finn McCool
- Start date
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
I expect this pullout is temporary, perhaps they intend to use the 2,000 Georgian troops from Iraq in a counter-offensive, though they may want them to be used in protecting the capital.
Even though Russia called for a Georgian pullout from South Ossetia as a precondition for ceasefire I wouldn't expect them to call off an attack on the Kodori Gorge. They may decide to remove Georgia from the Kodori Gorge as the coup de grace if Georgia does not launch a new offensive in South Ossetia.
Update: It appears this pullout is and is indeed temporary. This is to allow a humanitarian corridor asked for by the Red Cross.
I expect this pullout is temporary, perhaps they intend to use the 2,000 Georgian troops from Iraq in a counter-offensive, though they may want them to be used in protecting the capital.
Even though Russia called for a Georgian pullout from South Ossetia as a precondition for ceasefire I wouldn't expect them to call off an attack on the Kodori Gorge. They may decide to remove Georgia from the Kodori Gorge as the coup de grace if Georgia does not launch a new offensive in South Ossetia.
Update: It appears this pullout is and is indeed temporary. This is to allow a humanitarian corridor asked for by the Red Cross.
Last edited:
FugitiveVisions
Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
What is said about holding out against Russia has no relevance, because Russia never intended for this to be an all out invasion of Georgia, or even bring about regime change, which are true escalations. Russia's actions has stayed consistent with the aim to drive Georgian forces out of South Ossetia, and now possibly Abkhazia, which they have successfully done because the BBC just announced the Georgian withdrawal. So the claim that the Russians are bogged down are incorrect.
For that matter, it is not even in Russia's interest to annex South Ossetia, for it would paved the way for Georgia's inclusion into NATO. You see, Georgia is the kite and S. Ossetia is the string. If Russia snatches the string, the kite flies away. This is precisely why the Chinese allowed Taiwan to hold on to two tiny islands close to Fujian. It would be much easier for Taiwan to fly away if nothing was holding it back.
What is said about holding out against Russia has no relevance, because Russia never intended for this to be an all out invasion of Georgia, or even bring about regime change, which are true escalations. Russia's actions has stayed consistent with the aim to drive Georgian forces out of South Ossetia, and now possibly Abkhazia, which they have successfully done because the BBC just announced the Georgian withdrawal. So the claim that the Russians are bogged down are incorrect.
For that matter, it is not even in Russia's interest to annex South Ossetia, for it would paved the way for Georgia's inclusion into NATO. You see, Georgia is the kite and S. Ossetia is the string. If Russia snatches the string, the kite flies away. This is precisely why the Chinese allowed Taiwan to hold on to two tiny islands close to Fujian. It would be much easier for Taiwan to fly away if nothing was holding it back.
FugitiveVisions
Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
What Russia would like to do and what Russia can and will do are totally different issues. Is regime change possible? Sure. Are the Russians going to do it? Heck no. I think what the Russians have gotten from this is quite satisfactory for them.
What Russia would like to do and what Russia can and will do are totally different issues. Is regime change possible? Sure. Are the Russians going to do it? Heck no. I think what the Russians have gotten from this is quite satisfactory for them.
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
There are now reports of Russia imposing naval blockade on Georgia.
And on the pullout; it seems its just a temporary pullout of the capital Tskhinvali.
There are now reports of Russia imposing naval blockade on Georgia.
And on the pullout; it seems its just a temporary pullout of the capital Tskhinvali.
Last edited:
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
They do appear to be , but they have not done so yet. It is also being done on a temporary basis coinciding with a temporary ceasefire and this was most likely agreed between the two sides as a way to let in humanitarian workers and for wounded to be evacuated.
In other words this is basically pertaining only to South Ossetia and is not going to last. To some extent it allows Georgia to buy time before those 2,000 troops come back from Iraq. Things may now be shifting to Abkhazia for the next few days.
They do appear to be , but they have not done so yet. It is also being done on a temporary basis coinciding with a temporary ceasefire and this was most likely agreed between the two sides as a way to let in humanitarian workers and for wounded to be evacuated.
In other words this is basically pertaining only to South Ossetia and is not going to last. To some extent it allows Georgia to buy time before those 2,000 troops come back from Iraq. Things may now be shifting to Abkhazia for the next few days.
FugitiveVisions
Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
I disagree with this assessment. This is clearly an unilateral ceasefire attempt on the part of Georgia to stop the conflict. Russia so far has not responded to Georgia's official request for a ceasefire, and in the face of 4000 Russian troops in Abkhazia and 6000 more in South Ossetia, the Georgians are doing this to stop loss. If Georgia simply continues to fight on, its military and economy will be devastated, and it will also lose grip in Abkhazia.
I disagree with this assessment. This is clearly an unilateral ceasefire attempt on the part of Georgia to stop the conflict. Russia so far has not responded to Georgia's official request for a ceasefire, and in the face of 4000 Russian troops in Abkhazia and 6000 more in South Ossetia, the Georgians are doing this to stop loss. If Georgia simply continues to fight on, its military and economy will be devastated, and it will also lose grip in Abkhazia.
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
It's quite possible Georgia wants to end the conflict with a unilateral ceasefire, but as of right now they are saying it is temporary. There don't appear to be many signs of a ceasefire in Abkhazia so it seems this is mainly pertaining to South Ossetia. It could be buying time for some sort of international resolution as well.
It's quite possible Georgia wants to end the conflict with a unilateral ceasefire, but as of right now they are saying it is temporary. There don't appear to be many signs of a ceasefire in Abkhazia so it seems this is mainly pertaining to South Ossetia. It could be buying time for some sort of international resolution as well.
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
Re: Georgia Attacks South Ossetia, War With Russia Looms
I think some of the remarks on the Russian performance are as unrealistic as the wishful thinking we heard in 2003 when it took longer than 24 hours for the US to reach Baghdad.
My reading of the South Ossetia operation goes like this:
Thursday night. Georgia concentrates the larger part of its Professional forces and launches a massive strike against South Ossetia. The initial Artillery Barrage is successful, sweeping away most of the defenders and flattening a large part of Tskhinvali (forgive dodgy spellings
). Georgian forces move forward and by Friday morning control the outlying villages and the city and are pushing on toward the Roki Tunnel.
At this point Medvedev orders in the Russian Army and urgently calls back Putin from Beijing to take situational control of the operation as soon as the ceremonies and talks with Hu are concluded. A Russian Armoured Brigade followed by Paratroopers enter the region.
By the end of Friday Georgian forces have been knocked back out of the City and regroup on the high ridges above and try and relaunch the offencive with further Artillery barrages.
Saturday is spent dislodging these positions and silencing the Artillery.
During Early Sunday Morning Georgian Troops abandon the region and fall back to defencive positions around Gori. I think the Georgians have taken a large amount of damage and have lost any offencive capability they had.
Personally I do think Russia will go all the way now. Georgia has sneaked attacked its citizens, so why leave the leadership in place to regroup and try again later? The other developments do seem to support this view.
I think some of the remarks on the Russian performance are as unrealistic as the wishful thinking we heard in 2003 when it took longer than 24 hours for the US to reach Baghdad.
My reading of the South Ossetia operation goes like this:
Thursday night. Georgia concentrates the larger part of its Professional forces and launches a massive strike against South Ossetia. The initial Artillery Barrage is successful, sweeping away most of the defenders and flattening a large part of Tskhinvali (forgive dodgy spellings
). Georgian forces move forward and by Friday morning control the outlying villages and the city and are pushing on toward the Roki Tunnel.At this point Medvedev orders in the Russian Army and urgently calls back Putin from Beijing to take situational control of the operation as soon as the ceremonies and talks with Hu are concluded. A Russian Armoured Brigade followed by Paratroopers enter the region.
By the end of Friday Georgian forces have been knocked back out of the City and regroup on the high ridges above and try and relaunch the offencive with further Artillery barrages.
Saturday is spent dislodging these positions and silencing the Artillery.
During Early Sunday Morning Georgian Troops abandon the region and fall back to defencive positions around Gori. I think the Georgians have taken a large amount of damage and have lost any offencive capability they had.
Personally I do think Russia will go all the way now. Georgia has sneaked attacked its citizens, so why leave the leadership in place to regroup and try again later? The other developments do seem to support this view.