Russia Economy Thread

drowingfish

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This one is crazy, this guy calls for banning academic papers that studies the resilience of Russian economy because sanctions were supposed to work and they didn't...

I do find it remarkable that Russian economy has been more resilient than I thought. Russia public debt/GDP is only 25%, at times when it is suuposed to be spending lots of money hiring soldiers to the front. I wonder how Russia managed to do this...
 

pmc

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you have to consider so many people left Russia both migrants and domestic and than close to a million people will be some where floating around in Ukraine. and it still have this high consumption.
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Energy consumption in Russia increased by 4% due to regional economic growth​

this small population countries cannot maintain and estimate accurately.
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Mongolia imports electricity from Russia during peak hours​

ULAN BATOR, December 31. /TASS/. Mongolia has been importing electricity from Russia in recent years due to a shortage during peak loads, Mongolian Energy Minister Battogtokhyn Choijilsuren said during a visit to the Buuruljuut power plant, which supplies electricity to Ulaanbaatar, the country's capital.

"Mongolia's economy has been growing in recent years. On average, the load on the power grid increases by 12% in winter, and energy consumption by 7%. In recent years, we have been taking 345 MW of electricity from the Russian Federation during peak hours due to its shortage," said the head of the country's main energy agency.
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The minister said that Kazakhstan began to buy more electricity from Russia, answering a question about the impact of the time change on the growth of consumption​



They want cooperate with Iran in fundamental science.
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In an interview with TASS, Alexey Melnikov, managing partner of the IT holding Fplus, outlined his vision of the prospects for the development of the digital economy, paying special attention to support for startups, analyzing the impact of the key rate on the industry, and discussing potential timing for the entry of new domestic developments into the market. He also shared the company's plans for next year.

— The digital economy in Russia is now one of the most priority topics for discussion at forums, conferences and other large events. Tell us, in your opinion, what is this connected with and why? What role does the IT holding play in this?

— The level of digital technology development in Russia, without exaggeration, is second only to one country - China. I mean digital services in the broad sense of the word. China is ahead of us only because they are doing it more actively and systematically. For example, the Great Firewall of China began working earlier than ours. This is an illustration of the fact that they are at a slightly higher level of development.
When we talk about innovation, we mean fundamental science. Next year, we are planning to cooperate more closely with Iran. We want to know what they produce and develop. I mean not only physical production, but also the results of intellectual work.

And we too have no choice but to rely on our scientific schools, many of which have been built over centuries. We will definitely have our own special path of development as a country. We need to turn again to the fundamental science that we have preserved. The scientific schools created by Mendeleyev, Tsiolkovsky, Korolev, Sakharov are the basis of our innovations.


This is Putin talking about $10K tax exempt when business gives extra to employee for births. state benefits separate. Putin trying to compete with soft power. Previously Duma deputy said any age is fine for birth.
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updated 20 December 2024, 06:28

Putin proposed to exempt up to 1 million rubles of corporate payments to children from taxes​

The President noted that responsible business is already helping demographic policy

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She noted that girls under 18 are now advised to continue their pregnancy because “being young parents is great.”
 

gelgoog

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This one is crazy, this guy calls for banning academic papers that studies the resilience of Russian economy because sanctions were supposed to work and they didn't...

I do find it remarkable that Russian economy has been more resilient than I thought. Russia public debt/GDP is only 25%, at times when it is suuposed to be spending lots of money hiring soldiers to the front. I wonder how Russia managed to do this...
Russia prepared for the sanctions. They financed via their Industrial Development Fund with loans of rates of 5% and less any industrial company investment to bring production of former imported required components in-house. They have done this at least since 2014.
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Before that Russia did similar investments into agriculture. They used to import wheat and now they export it.

Russia is basically its own continent. They can be fully self-sufficient if necessary. The thing they need is technology imports, they have limited population, so they cannot do everything themselves. But China is right next door, a neighbour, and has all the tech they need.

As for government debt being low even with the war remember that most of the Russian MIC is state owned. Those weapons are produced by the state for its own use and thus aren't creating vast amounts of debt. The Russian state also used to charge a low flat income tax rate, they changed it to a progressive tax rate, and that generated the needed revenue.

That is not to say that all is peachy, there might still be technology developed in the West, that they won't be able to get for their own use. The civilian transport sector is still a mess, from automobiles, to trains, airplanes, boats. Most of it used to either be imported, or produced by in Russia with Western inputs.
 
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pmc

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Consumption is growing faster than GDP. year to date growth is 8%.
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Gas production in Russia increased by 6% in November thanks to energy and industry​

Moscow. December 25. INTERFAX.RU - Natural gas production in Russia continued to grow noticeably in November. The lack of incentives from the weather was compensated by a favorable situation in inter-fuel competition and industrial demand. Natural gas production (primarily Gazprom production) continues to grow, while associated gas production is declining.

Data​

Natural gas production in the Russian Federation in November 2024 amounted to 61.7 billion cubic meters, which is 6% higher than in November 2023 (58.24 billion cubic meters), Rosstat reported.

Perspective​

In total, gas production for 11 months of 2024, according to Rosstat, amounted to 620.5 billion cubic meters (a year earlier it was 576.1 billion cubic meters), that is, growth amounted to 8%.
This North South is the most important Russia project.
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13.12.24

Armenia, India and Iran Strengthen Cooperation within North-South Transport Corridor​

Trilateral consultations on the development of an international transport corridor, which will significantly simplify cargo transportation between countries in the region, were held in New Delhi.
According to the plan, the new transport corridor will ensure the delivery of goods from India and the Persian Gulf states to the markets of the European Union and the EAEU. The logistics chain will begin in the Indian port of Mumbai, from where the goods will be sent to the Iranian port of Chabahar in the southeast of the country. Then the route will pass through the territory of Armenia, where transportation will be carried out both by road and rail.

After this, cargo will be able to travel through Georgia in two directions: either in the direction of Greek and Bulgarian ports, or to Russia – by sea or through the Upper Lars border crossing.
The low rise is single family homes.
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Russia to Build Over 60 Million Square Meters of Private Homes by 2024​

Date of publication: 11 Dec 2024
By the end of 2024, the commissioning of individual housing construction will amount to slightly more than 60 million square meters. The preliminary total commissioning of housing by the end of 2024 will amount to approximately 105 million square meters," he said during the international forum "Low-Rise Russia 2024."
This referring to Russia Starlink and airplane Wifi.
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December 28, 2024, 10:00 PM
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The Russian state satellite communications operator Space Communications (GP KS) operates the country's largest geostationary satellite constellation of 12 satellites capable of providing services to clients on all continents except Antarctica. GP KS General Director Alexey Volin spoke to TASS about the company's achievements over the past year and plans for the future.
We continued working in the niche that we have long occupied - the Internet and communications on sea vessels. 515 ships are within our marine VSAT network. And more than 500 ships are clients of other operators, but use GP KS devices
The utilisation of our spacecraft (SC) remains at a good level – above 82%, which is a very good indicator for the industry.
That's true. As you said earlier, work on the system for obtaining high-precision coordinates allowed you and your colleagues from JSC GLONASS to discover many new joint areas, including in the field of marine geology.

- Yes. In addition, we see good prospects in river transport and forestry.

— Is Kosmicheskaya Svyaz interested in reverse engineering Starlink terminals?

- No, we provide services from geostationary orbit, and Starlink satellites fly in their orbits. It is too low for us.
We hope to test domestic solutions in the field of subscriber terminals together with our colleagues in 2025. This year we have already tested modems. It is quite possible that next year these modems will go into production, because everything has already been completed in this part. The next thing that needs to be created is a hub, from which, accordingly, distribution takes place. We set a deadline for hubs for next year. Another area is the above-mentioned cooperation with JSC GLONASS.

In addition, my colleagues from science and industry and I are thinking about such a task as a domestic terminal and devices for the Internet on board the Russian aircraft being created. Because today, as you know, the airliners of our airlines, which had foreign services, are disconnected from the Internet, since they were configured for foreign spacecraft. And now we see a great need from the market to provide passengers with the opportunity to use the Internet on board.

— The Ministry of Digital Development, as I recall, announced the introduction of Wi-Fi on airplanes in 2028 using low-orbit satellite constellations.

- This is what Bureau 1440 does. But it is always better to have several options. And we, for our part, will try to solve this problem even earlier, because we are used to being at the forefront.
The material advancement related to above this Gallium oxide.
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The prospects for using gallium oxide in these areas are due to its unique properties, such as high breakdown voltage, large band gap and permittivity. The introduction of Ga2O3-based materials into production will allow the creation of energy-efficient (with low leakage currents) semiconductor devices of smaller (up to 27 times compared to Si and up to 2 times - with GaN and 4H-SiC) size.


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Scientists from the Institute of PSPD have become recipients of a grant from the Russian Science Foundation​

As part of the project that won the grant, scientists are synthesizing and researching gallium oxide, a promising semiconductor material.
Semiconductor materials are the basis of technical progress and our everyday life. They are used in microelectronics and optoelectronics, in energy and communication systems. Today, most semiconductor devices are still based on silicon. But there has long been a need for new microelectronic devices, and in particular, power electronics and sensors. The devices used today, created on the basis of existing semiconductor materials, no longer satisfy consumers.
We are at the very frontier of this science - this is one of the newest semiconductor materials, which is being studied by the whole world today. There is no doubt that in the next decade, maybe a little earlier, maybe a little later, it will certainly move into industry. And we are working with a promising material not only from the point of view of academic science. Conditionally "tomorrow" the use of gallium oxide will be an industrial standard " - shares Bauman Dmitry Andreevich, head of the group engaged in the synthesis and research of Ga2O3 at the Institute of PSPD.
And already in 2022, scientists from the PSPD Institute, for the first time in our country, using Stepanov’s method, obtained samples of high-quality bulk gallium oxide crystals larger than 10 cm in size, suitable for the manufacture of substrates
 

pmc

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Russia electric consumption is 1200 billion kwh. this more than twice of Germany and Russia much more off the grid electric due to single family homes and gas consumption is second to US.
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Moscow, January 14 - Neftegaz.RU News Agency. Energy consumption in Russia in 2024 increased by 3.1%, reaching 1.192 trillion kWh, and production - by 2.9%.
This was reported by the head
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F. Opadchiy.
A record number of new generation facilities are planned for 2025.
Their total capacity will be 3.972 GW.
This is 2 times higher than the level of 2024.

Another $10k per year from tax deduction for demographics.
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Putin orders creation of “family savings tool” with deduction of up to 1 million rubles​

“Ensure the creation of a family savings instrument, defining the parameters for its use and providing for a tax deduction on personal income tax in the amount of up to 1 million rubles per year in relation to funds invested in savings,” the text says.

This order from the head of state must be fulfilled by July 15.

This came in RT Arabic. basically there is new City called Putin being built and they want people from other places to move to Grozny. this is not a minor change.
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Kadyrov intends to make Grozny an attractive city for moving​


there is always need to increase flights to Gulf countries.
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Russia and Oman Discuss Opening New Flights Between Muscat and Russian Cities
The issues of development of the international transport corridor “North-South” were also raised.

"Oman is one of Russia's most important partners in the East. I am confident that with your direct participation we will be able to build effective cooperation between our countries in the transport sector," Roman Starovoit noted.

Increasing Ship production. these are civilian ships.
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Russia to Increase Ship Production 10-Fold by 2030​

In 2024, 60 ships were built, and the plan for 2030 is 638 ships.


Russia sold 3.5 tons of Gold to Iran. Russia is one of largest producer of gold.
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Russia Ships 3.5 Tons of Gold to Iran​

 

pmc

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This is about 14ton Lithium ore captured in Ukraine. They are good size in Europe context but way smaller even one Russian field.
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Recently, at the very end of 2024, the Russian Armed Forces established control over the village of Shevchenko (Donetsk People's Republic). This settlement is home to one of the largest lithium deposits in Europe. According to preliminary estimates, this territory contains about 14 million tons of lithium ore.


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At the Kolmozerskoye lithium deposit, the increase in reserves could reach 25-30%

Russia exported $1.7b worth of meat.
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They are talking about Federal government but once you look at inside some regional governments are giving upto $30k.
I have seen figure as high as $100 billion that Russia is spending on demographics next three years. and those with soft power does not need this encouragement.
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Maternity benefits for female students will be increased by 10 times or more​


Among them: Vologda, Leningrad, Oryol, Samara, Tula, Tomsk, Chelyabinsk regions, Khabarovsk and Krasnoyarsk territories, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and so on. Most often, regions are ready to offer student mothers 100 thousand rubles, but there are regions where the payment will amount to 1-3 million rubles.

In the near future, a bill on increasing maternity benefits for female students will be posted for public discussion, the press service of the Ministry of Labor told Izvestia. The department plans to submit the document to the State Duma during the spring session. Considering that the project was developed on the instructions of the president, it may be adopted as a priority and come into force by the beginning of the new academic year, a source close to the ministry suggested.

In detail they are saying that this Current Power of Siberia can be boost some where between 44 BCM to 60BCM. Russia expanding gas network around Kazakhstan and Mongolia and it will be ready by 2026 and any route can be used.
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Yu. Ushakov on the results of negotiations between V. Putin and Xi Jinping: New routes for gas supplies to China are being developed, for example, Power of Siberia-2​

Cooperation is developing on other energy projects.
The Power of Siberia-1 gas pipeline (Eastern route for gas supplies to China) was commissioned in December 2019, and in December 2024, a month ahead of schedule, the gas pipeline was
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up to the maximum contract level of 38 billion m3 / year. The initiator of the early increase in supplies was the Chinese CNPC, and the receiving infrastructure in China was built
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ahead of schedule . Gazprom set records for daily gas supplies to China in 2024
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, of which 2 December records meant supplies at an above-contract level. As a result, the supply plan for 2024 was exceeded (again),
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to more than 31 billion m3 with a plan of 30 billion m3 . Gazprom has good reason to expect that in 2025 gas supplies to China via the Eastern Route
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contractual obligations. Gazprom and China
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the possibility of increasing pumping to 44 billion m3 / year, while before that the possibility of transporting up to 60 billion m3 /year of gas via the gas pipeline was voiced . The second route for pipeline gas supplies to China - the Far Eastern route (formerly the Power of Siberia-3 MGP project) - is being actively built. Its core is the existing Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok (SKhV) MGP, from which a gas pipeline branch will be built to China. The start of supplies
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for the end of January 2027, the contractual volume of supplies via this route is 10 billion m3 / year of gas. The Western route (Power of Siberia-2 in Russia + Soyuz Vostok in Mongolia) with a capacity of 50 billion m3 / year of export gas remains in limbo; the differences between Gazprom and the Chinese side mainly concern the price of gas. The greater part of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline should be part of the large-scale Eastern Gas Supply System (EGSS) gas pipeline system, which should first connect the Power of Siberia-1 gas pipeline and the SKHV gas pipeline system (the Belogorsk-Khabarovsk gas pipeline is already
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and
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commissioned in 2026), and then connect these gas pipelines to the Unified Gas Supply System (this section will comprise the greater part of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, which will run from the Tomsk Region, along the south of the Krasnoyarsk Region to the Irkutsk Region, from where it is possible to build a branch to the Russian state border with Mongolia in the Republic of Buryatia). Regarding this project, Gazprom cautiously states that it is being developed, and the company is currently offering autonomous gasification based on LNG to Krasnoyarsk Krai).

There will be more opportunity for Russia in Europe at some point.
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Dusk for Norway is dawn for Russia’: Alarm as gas fields supplying the UK begin to run out​

Dwindling supplies of fossil fuels threaten to play straight into the hands of Vladimir Putin

International students are now 390K early 2025. this despite expensive flights and drone attacks.
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The number of foreign students in Russia has grown to 389 thousand people in a year​

The number of foreign students in Russian higher education institutions increased to 389 thousand people in 2024.
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got acquainted with such data in January 2025. According to national development goals, this figure is planned to increase to 410 thousand people by 2025.

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Even if drones explode overhead." Why Kazakh students stay in Russia despite the war​

 

HighGround

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As for government debt being low even with the war remember that most of the Russian MIC is state owned. Those weapons are produced by the state for its own use and thus aren't creating vast amounts of debt. The Russian state also used to charge a low flat income tax rate, they changed it to a progressive tax rate, and that generated the needed revenue.

That is not to say that all is peachy, there might still be technology developed in the West, that they won't be able to get for their own use. The civilian transport sector is still a mess, from automobiles, to trains, airplanes, boats. Most of it used to either be imported, or produced by in Russia with Western inputs.

Precisely why articles like this are delusional.

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How is Russia supposed to go bust when government-owned banks issued loans in Rubles to government-owned enterprises? Even if the defense industry is unable to repay the loans, that meanst government owned enterprises are now on the hook for bad debt to... Russian banks? The logic isn't strong with the recent series of articles trying to find "hidden" Russian debt.
 

gelgoog

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How is Russia supposed to go bust when government-owned banks issued loans in Rubles to government-owned enterprises? Even if the defense industry is unable to repay the loans, that meanst government owned enterprises are now on the hook for bad debt to... Russian banks? The logic isn't strong with the recent series of articles trying to find "hidden" Russian debt.
The main issue would be if Russia gets a negative balance of trade which means they cannot import the machine tools and other goods they need. That is what happened in the 1980s to the Soviet economy after the Saudis flooded the market with oil. But for that Trump would have to crash the oil price like he threatened to do with Saudi help. Problem is last time the Saudis and Russia came to blows a couple years ago the Saudis blinked first. The economics of oil extraction of both countries are not like in the 1980s.
The ruble situation isn't an issue. Neither is the government budget. They just raised the income tax by switching from 15% flat tax to a progressive tax rate.
 

gelgoog

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I will also add that the current situation where defense companies are saddled with loans looks to me like a longstanding attempt by the government to squeeze private investors out of the defense sector. A lot of these investors bought defense companies pennies on the dollar in the 1990s. The Russian government thus insists in the companies having low profits and then funds their equipment as a separate budget item. These defense companies have to get loans from state banks to purchase materials to satisfy the government order, and then they have to pay the loans back as the order is delivered. But classifying this debt as a problem for the government seems like a mistake to me. It is just the way the Russian government squeezes the MIC. The debts are not owed to 3rd parties but to government run banks and are denominated in rubles.
 
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