Renminbi (RMB)/Yuan Appreciation & Internationalization

tphuang

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news now that Chinese state banks are being told to dump USD to prop up Yuan
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What they don't say is that Chinese banks have been accumulating foreign currencies all of this year. Even in June, they bought 59B RMB more of foreign currency than they sold
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Most likely from the net trading surplus they are running. I don't know why Chinese gov't still so persistently suppress RMB when the these bank holdings can get wiped away if some kind of sanction comes through

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looks like digital yuan usage continue to increase.
 

tphuang

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I think a strong yuan would be pretty terrible right now? It would make Chinese product more expensive exactly when no one has any money to buy stuff. They want to encourage spending to boost the economy, not suppress it.
Their issue is not price competitiveness but rather certain countries being in recession or not buying from china for political reasons. Continually depreciating your currency only makes it less attractive to investors and discourage domestic consumption.

We have to move past this early 2000s model of only growing through exporting to the west
 

AndrewS

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Most likely from the net trading surplus they are running. I don't know why Chinese gov't still so persistently suppress RMB when the these bank holdings can get wiped away if some kind of sanction comes through

These are the reasons I see why China still wants a weak currency and therefore has to hold/accumulate USD.

1. Helps retain existing low-value manufacturing. That translates into jobs for low-skilled workers which China still has many of

2. Gain more high-end manufacturing industries eg. Energy and electric vehicles. These are the industries of the future which will power future economic growth to high-income status

3. The more manufacturing China has, the more the rest of the world is dependent on China. That makes decoupling or derisking so much more difficult. It means imposing sanctions on China isn't an option, particularly since the West only accounts for 15% of global population and 40% of global economic activity

4. If China is sanctioned, it's pretty much guaranteed that a war (of some sort) is happening or will happen. In such a scenario, having overwhelming manufacturing capacity to win any war is more important than losing a few Trillion USD. In the aftermath, we may even see these USD assets being returned as part of any settlement or reparations.
 

Biscuits

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These are the reasons I see why China still wants a weak currency and therefore has to hold/accumulate USD.

1. Helps retain existing low-value manufacturing. That translates into jobs for low-skilled workers which China still has many of

2. Gain more high-end manufacturing industries eg. Energy and electric vehicles. These are the industries of the future which will power future economic growth to high-income status

3. The more manufacturing China has, the more the rest of the world is dependent on China. That makes decoupling or derisking so much more difficult. It means imposing sanctions on China isn't an option, particularly since the West only accounts for 15% of global population and 40% of global economic activity

4. If China is sanctioned, it's pretty much guaranteed that a war (of some sort) is happening or will happen. In such a scenario, having overwhelming manufacturing capacity to win any war is more important than losing a few Trillion USD. In the aftermath, we may even see these USD assets being returned as part of any settlement or reparations.
Not devaluing currency really doesn't help China much. Other countries avoid China's strategy because pushing down their currency incurs economic damage when they are reliant on imports. But China has very little need of imports, and most of the import it gets are resources, which are purchased at rates that aren't affected that much by currency fluctuations.

A controlled push downwards makes products more affordable. That's been the government's policy since the Deng era. And it works. Livelihoods become more affordable while international market competitiveness stays high.

Later on, when China acquires more satellite countries, there are good arguments to allow currency to jump back up in order to encourage outbound flows from China to economically colonize these territories.

But ultimately, China is an engineer's and inventor's country, not a investor's and banker's country. Staying at the forefront of education, product development and science, these venues will always be the mainstay of its earnings, not rentier collection from the economically colonized.

So I think China (at least under communist government) will always to some degree suppress currency. Hence why they have made proposals such as adopting a new virtual currency, rather than letting yuan take the place of the dollar.

The ideal scenario for China would be to remove unearned American influence from the global economy, institute a new "neutral" global currency stewarded by Beijing itself, but keep the yuan roughly as it is.

However, enemies also get a vote and while the current global instabilities have caused damage to the dollar, it has also revealed that the above scenario might not be realistic. The other countries don't want a new virtual currency, they want yuan and they want it now. So China would have to respond to this in some way.
 

KYli

Brigadier
ASEAN countries attempt to develop a new regional payments system in order to cut their reliance on Dollars in cross border trades and commerce. It is another sign that the Western powers monopolize and abuse of international financial system by imposing a total ban and confiscation of Russian assets have scared all none Western countries and awakened them to the risk of trusting and relying on Dollars or SWIFT.
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sunnymaxi

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Russian media reports: Renminbi has become the main currency for foreign currency payments in Russia!


Reference News Network reported on August 3 that according to a report on August 1 on the website of the Russian "Expert" weekly magazine, the RMB has become the foreign currency most used by Russian merchants for payment this year. Can be used to convert into dollars and euros.

TASS reported that in the first five months of this year, 70% of foreign currency remittances by Russian entrepreneurs were in RMB. Therefore, the renminbi became the most popular foreign currency among Russian entrepreneurs during this period. From June 2022 to June 2023, the amount of payments made by Russian entrepreneurs in RMB will increase every month. Russian companies need to use yuan to do business with China and Singapore. The Turkish lira is the second most used foreign currency among Russian entrepreneurs, and it is undoubtedly used for settlements with Turkey.

Russian social activist Georgi Zaklevsky pointed out that it is reasonable for the RMB to continue to expand its share in foreign currency transfer payments. The renminbi is now used for settlements with about 30 countries, and about 60 countries use the currency as a reserve currency.

According to Zaklevsky, this scenario makes perfect sense. China remains the largest world factory and is also actively involved in geopolitics in Africa and the Pacific. China's stable political situation and continuous economic growth are all conducive to further consolidating the status of the renminbi.

Alexei Poroshen, general manager of Russia's "First Group" company, believes that it is not surprising that the renminbi will become the number one foreign exchange payment currency in Russia's foreign economic activities in 2023, because 11 of Russia's 13 important banks have Sanctioned by the United States and unable to use any foreign currency for payment, the remaining two almost no longer do payment business.

The expert pointed out that among other slightly smaller banks, there are still about 5 banks that have the ability to pay a very small amount of US dollars, which can be transferred through correspondent bank accounts opened in US financial institutions. Therefore, RMB has in fact become the only direct payment channel for Russia's foreign economic contracts.
 
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