PLAN Catapult Development Thread, News, etc.

[taxiya]

Evening all, I'd just like to add my opinion to the discussion.

Bear in mind that for the PLAN, they have had zero experience with either steam catapults or EMALS. Therefore, I believe that there is no such thing as a "safer" choice for them. Both technologies are untested, so both are equally viable from a technical point of view.

Earlier in this thread, somebody mentioned that the Chinese tend to make faster progress when it comes to electrical engineering rather than mechanical engineering, which I also believe is the case.

However, there have also been reports that the 002's development was a case of 'steam catapult waiting for the carrier'. In other words, the steam catapult has been ready for a while now. Then of course, Admiral Ma came out of nowhere and brought up his EMALS as an alternative, which the PLAN has given a fair chance so far.

That being said, I don't think it's fair to guess at what type of catapult they would fit on the 002. Did the PLAN come to a decision? Probably yes. However, they have leaked absoutely nothing about decision, only news from both sides (steam vs. EMALS) about having "confidence" in their respective projects. In other words, we cannot guess.

That's my 2 cents.

Agree with everything else but skeptical of this sentence 'steam catapult waiting for the carrier' (I know it is not your words). How could the steam catapult being ready if it has never been tested in an operational land based environment? The EMALS caught up 2 or 3 years ago and now they are on the same start line for the final real life test. So even steam catapult was very early in time to be ready for operational test like today's test site, that advantage has gone or erased by the "delay" of the carrier.

There were many Chinese military programs that failed due to "outdated before finished", such as the many J-xxs in the 1960s and 1970s. Steam catapult may be just another one of them. Nothing bad about it, not the fault of the steam catapult, just bad timing.

I am aware of the J-8 catapult launch, but like I said above, that experiment never got a chance to proceed to the kind of stage as we are seeing today.

 

[weig2000]

I suppose maybe because China's National Day is around the corner, people in China are in general in good spirit. Or maybe it's because the spokesman of the Chinese MOD just entertained a question from the press yesterday regarding the status of supposed China's CATOBAR carrier (he essentially gave a non-denial answer, saying that relevant R&D are underway). In any case, big shrimps fzgfzy and pop3, separately but almost simultaneously, came out with new posts about their (updated) views of 002.

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, he reviewed his prediction given earlier this year and gave his updated view based on the latest and greatest he heard from various sources:

1. 002 is conventional powered, steamed catapulted, not nuclear powered or EMALS. No change in view.
2. Tonnage between 60 - 70k, his view 68k. He refused to clarify whether it regular, standard or full displacement. Single-axis power 50,000 hp. No change in view.
3. Island size reduced by 1/4 to 1/3, compared to Liaoning. Prviously he thought it would reduce by 40%
4. Three steamed catapults, this is quite a change in view. Previously he leaned toward two, said the change of opinion was due to certain breakthrough related to power plant and propulsion system.

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, in a relatively short post, he gave his latest prediction (not much change from previous one):

1. Tonnage 70kt, maybe 68kt. pop3 has been consistent, he usually talks about standard displacement.
2. 50,000 hp single-axis, so 200,000 hp total.
   
3. Conventional power, steamed catapult
4. Catapult J-15

Based the above converging views, 002 is shaping up to a conventional CATOBAR, standard displacement 68 kt with a power plant rated at 200,000 hp. Full displacement likely in the range of 75-80kt. Close to Kitty Hawk, but not quite, primarily due to power plant constraint.

Take them with any size of grain of salt if you will, but I think all signs indicate that 002 is moving to the block and construction start is soon if not already.

 

[Blitzo]

I suppose maybe because China's National Day is around the corner, people in China are in general in good spirit. Or maybe it's because the spokesman of the Chinese MOD just entertained a question from the press yesterday regarding the status of supposed China's CATOBAR carrier (he essentially gave a non-denial answer, saying that relevant R&D are underway). In any case, big shrimps fzgfzy and pop3, separately but almost simultaneously, came out with new posts about their (updated) views of 002.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, he reviewed his prediction given earlier this year and gave his updated view based on the latest and greatest he heard from various sources:

1. 002 is conventional powered, steamed catapulted, not nuclear powered or EMALS. No change in view.
2. Tonnage between 60 - 70k, his view 68k. He refused to clarify whether it regular, standard or full displacement. Single-axis power 50,000 hp. No change in view.
3. Island size reduced by 1/4 to 1/3, compared to Liaoning. Prviously he thought it would reduce by 40%
4. Three steamed catapults, this is quite a change in view. Previously he leaned toward two, said the change of opinion was due to certain breakthrough related to power plant and propulsion system.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, in a relatively short post, he gave his latest prediction (not much change from previous one):

1. Tonnage 70kt, maybe 68kt. pop3 has been consistent, he usually talks about standard displacement.
2. 50,000 hp single-axis, so 200,000 hp total.
   
3. Conventional power, steamed catapult
4. Catapult J-15

Based the above converging views, 002 is shaping up to a conventional CATOBAR, standard displacement 68 kt with a power plant rated at 200,000 hp. Full displacement likely in the range of 75-80kt. Close to Kitty Hawk, but not quite, primarily due to power plant constraint.

Take them with any size of grain of salt if you will, but I think all signs indicate that 002 is moving to the block and construction start is soon if not already.

Nice, thanks for those posts.

It'll be quite interesting to see what catapult 002 (or at least the first 002) really does end up with. I personally wouldn't be surprised with steam catapult, but the fact that they're comparing steam and EM is definitely also one of those confounding factors.

 

[Jeff Head]

I suppose maybe because China's National Day is around the corner, people in China are in general in good spirit. Or maybe it's because the spokesman of the Chinese MOD just entertained a question from the press yesterday regarding the status of supposed China's CATOBAR carrier (he essentially gave a non-denial answer, saying that relevant R&D are underway). In any case, big shrimps fzgfzy and pop3, separately but almost simultaneously, came out with new posts about their (updated) views of 002.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, he reviewed his prediction given earlier this year and gave his updated view based on the latest and greatest he heard from various sources:

1. 002 is conventional powered, steamed catapulted, not nuclear powered or EMALS. No change in view.
2. Tonnage between 60 - 70k, his view 68k. He refused to clarify whether it regular, standard or full displacement. Single-axis power 50,000 hp. No change in view.
3. Island size reduced by 1/4 to 1/3, compared to Liaoning. Prviously he thought it would reduce by 40%
4. Three steamed catapults, this is quite a change in view. Previously he leaned toward two, said the change of opinion was due to certain breakthrough related to power plant and propulsion system.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, in a relatively short post, he gave his latest prediction (not much change from previous one):

1. Tonnage 70kt, maybe 68kt. pop3 has been consistent, he usually talks about standard displacement.
2. 50,000 hp single-axis, so 200,000 hp total.
   
3. Conventional power, steamed catapult
4. Catapult J-15

Based the above converging views, 002 is shaping up to a conventional CATOBAR, standard displacement 68 kt with a power plant rated at 200,000 hp. Full displacement likely in the range of 75-80kt. Close to Kitty Hawk, but not quite, primarily due to power plant constraint.

Take them with any size of grain of salt if you will, but I think all signs indicate that 002 is moving to the block and construction start is soon if not already.

Nice.

...and did not have to go elsewhere to get these estimates/statements.

But it is nice to have some big shrimps punctuate what several of us here on SD have been surmising for 2-3 years now.

002=CATAOBAR, conventional power, steam cats, full load at 80K.

I believe the PLAN will build two of them.

This will buy the PLAN time to:

1) Get very versed in CATOBAR operations.
2) Give them time to perfect carrier nuclear power and EMALs to their liking.
3) Double the size of their carrier fleet.
4) Prepare them to move forward with nuclear CATOBAR carriers with EMALs.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

I always believe they have the steam driven catapult all along . As somebody said before it is sitting there waiting for carrier.
Conservatism and the long lead time to train pilot prevent them to use it in CV17.
It is no big deal they can afford to wait, now that they have CV 17 soon

 

[superdog]

Many speculations were based on a certain news that mentioned a 50,000 hp steam turbine for ship was being prepared for testing back in 2014.

A typical 4 x 50,000 hp layout means the ship should be somewhere between the Queen Elizabeth class (~70,000 tons full, 150,000 hp) and the Nimitz class (~100,000 tons full, 280,000 hp), probably closer to the QE. Near 80k fully loaded is a reasonable estimate.

 

[Jeff Head]

I always believe they have the steam driven catapult all along . As somebody said before it is sitting there waiting for carrier.
Conservatism and the long lead time to train pilot prevent them to use it in CV17.
It is no big deal they can afford to wait, now that they have CV 17 soon

Agreed.

They will end up with the two STOBARs and they will make good use of them. There will be places where the use of these types of carriers will be a better choice for the PLAN than a full on CATOBAR.

In the end, I believe they will have two Conventional CATOBAR with steam cats for the same conservative reasons.

There is no rush. A more reliable, or at least readily available system for conventional power will be available and I believe they will build two of those to maximize their training and logistics for them.

After that, I expect every large fleet carrier the Chinese will build will be a CATOBAR nuclear powered carrier that will use EMALs for launching its aircraft. I believe those carriers will be full load of at least 85-90,000 tons.

Time will tell.

 

[weig2000]

Nice, thanks for those posts.

It'll be quite interesting to see what catapult 002 (or at least the first 002) really does end up with. I personally wouldn't be surprised with steam catapult, but the fact that they're comparing steam and EM is definitely also one of those confounding factors.

I believe the rumor that there has been a competition between the two technologies is not unfounded. The progress in EMALS is real and credible. It's new and exciting. If it were up to a vote among military enthusiasts and/or even many industry insiders, I believe it would go in favor of EMALS - you could tell that from various personnel promoting EMALS publicly on television. But I thought for people really in the know and the people with power - which are a smaller set of people - they would go for the steamed catapult route. It's because they have a fuller and bigger picture, and also because they would be more pragmatic and risk-averse. This was already shown in previous decision going for an additional Type 001 (001A).

 

[Blitzo]

I believe the rumor that there has been a competition between the two technologies is not unfounded. The progress in EMALS is real and credible. It's new and exciting. If it were up to a vote among military enthusiasts and/or even many industry insiders, I believe it would go in favor of EMALS - you could tell that from various personnel promoting EMALS publicly on television. But I thought for people really in the know and the people with power - which are a smaller set of people - they would go for the steamed catapult route. It's because they have a fuller and bigger picture, and also because they would be more pragmatic and risk-averse. This was already shown in previous decision going for an additional Type 001 (001A).

Oh I'm sure that there are arguments for and against each option... what I'm interested in is whether a decision has already been made regarding the catapults for 002, or if it hasn't, and how that relates to the catapult competition at Huangdicun.

i.e.: when pop3 says he thinks they're going to go with steam, is that based on insider knowledge that a decision has been made or is that based on his own assessment of the probabilities (but that an official decision has yet to be made)? Rhetorical question of course.

 

[Iron Man]

i.e.: when pop3 says he thinks they're going to go with steam, is that based on insider knowledge that a decision has been made or is that based on his own assessment of the probabilities (but that an official decision has yet to be made)? Rhetorical question of course.

I was under the impression that the entire reason we give these guys' statements more weight is that they have specific insider knowledge, not that they can somehow predict something better than we can. Either you know it's going to be 68-70,000 tons, or you don't know and you're just guessing. Either you know it's going to be steam cat over EM cat, or you don't know and you're just guessing. In which case why do their guesses get more authority? I don't get it.