PLAN Carrier Strike Group and Airwing

¦^��: Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

chuck731 said:

I am guessing they will take it slow and after the first domestic carrier is laid down, they won't laid down another carrier until the Liaoning has undertaken operational patrols and their first domestic carrier is or is nearly finished.

So 1st carrier laid down in 2013-2014, about 65,000 tons, based closely on the Varyag.

Big gap of 5-7 years.

2nd and 3rd carriers would be laid down and built in parallel around 2020, about 95,000 tons, nuclear powered, more or less clean slate design.

The engine compartment design of the chinese CVN may be based on the Ulyanovsk, but I don't buy the notion that the overall layout of the indigenous Chinese CVN will be based closely on either the Varyag or the Ulyanovsk.

I am guessing 4th and 5th carrier will also follow only after a big gap, after 2nd and 3rd unit have commissioned and worked up.

So 4th and 5th carriers may not be laid down until 2030. Thereafter they would build at a series production rate of one every 3-4 years.

Click to expand...

Actually, with the Liaoning in service currently doing trials, I think the learning curve can be a bit steeper here. The first domestic carrier is likely to be an upgraded Liaoning. However, seeing that the mockup had been in the shipyard for a year, it is very likely that the second carrier might either later join parallel construction with the first one or begin shortly after.

My guess is that two conventional flat tops will be built until they move on to the CVNs. There should be no gap between the second and third unit.

It is doubtful that the CVN would be based on the Uly, simply because that stuff is very old tech and China by that time would have the full resources to apply its own systems.

1 x Liaoning upgrade
<gap>
2 x Liaoning replacement
<gap>
1 x CVN

Apparently the moderators at Chinese military forums have photos of the Liaoning upgrade under construction, but they are not allowed to release them.

Re: ¦^��: Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

SinoSoldier said:

Apparently the moderators at Chinese military forums have photos of the Liaoning upgrade under construction, but they are not allowed to release them.

Click to expand...

Does it have ski ramp?

¦^��: Re: ¦^��: Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

Blackstone said:

Does it have ski ramp?

Click to expand...

Did you not see the drawing posted here? Yes it does.

Re: ¦^��: Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

SinoSoldier said:

Apparently the moderators at Chinese military forums have photos of the Liaoning upgrade under construction, but they are not allowed to release them.

Click to expand...

Sure. How secret can those photos be if the moderator at some military forum already have them? Do those alledgedly preventing the photos from being released really think the only people worth keeping the progress of the carrier secret from - foreign intelligence - can't already piece together more than a handful of photos are likely to reveal?

Re: ¦^��: Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

chuck731 said:

How secret can those photos be if the moderator at some military forum already have them? And do those alledgedly not allowing the photos really think the only people worth keeping the progress of the carrier secret from - foreign intelligence - can't already piece together more than a handful of photos are likely to reveal?

Click to expand...

Well, if they are Chinese Military forums in the PRC, as in on the mainland...my guess is that they will not release them if the CCP/State Security tells them not to. Anyhow, that's how I took it.

¦^��: Re: ¦^��: Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

chuck731 said:

Sure. How secret can those photos be if the moderator at some military forum already have them? Do those alledgedly preventing the photos from being released really think the only people worth keeping the progress of the carrier secret from - foreign intelligence - can't already piece together more than a handful of photos are likely to reveal?

Click to expand...

If they don't post them, then they are secret. People have known to be fired from their jobs and detained 48 hours if they are caught posting restricted photos in China.

And seeing how it were the civilians who got the first photos of the J-20 before any foreign intelligence service, then the answer is yes, they are the only ones keeping the secret.

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

This will be my only point on this topic of Chinese military forum picture posting.

There are 2 or 3 major sources of Chinese military photos. There are the ones with close relationship with PLA that get more secret photos and also censors their board for any pictures that PLA deem to not be ready to be released. And there are ones with less close relationship with PLA that get all the open pictures. Either cases, if PLA is really unhappy with something that got posted, the forum moderator will get a call and have to take it down. They can keep it hidden until they get released at a later date. Sometimes, we don't see those photos until year's later when the platform is already in service.

Remember, people who post unauthorized pictures may get fired or put to jail (although this doesn't happen as much anymore). The censorship system they use for confidential material is not always consistent, so military fans often get emboldened to take greater chances and put them online. This also puts those fans in dangerous situation. I think we are all grateful that PLA is allowing more photos to come out without endangering the jobs or livelihood of those photographers. These guys don't owe us anything. So be respectful of what they post and also the risks they take.

Re: ¦^��: Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

SinoSoldier said:

Apparently the moderators at Chinese military forums have photos of the Liaoning upgrade under construction, but they are not allowed to release them.

Click to expand...

Well, GE has updated photos from dalian and jiangnan shipyard that date from the current year. I havent spoted anything that looked like an AC, except that module. I wonder if other people here have spotted anything.

Re: ¦^��: Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

kroko said:

Well, GE has updated photos from dalian and jiangnan shipyard that date from the current year. I havent spoted anything that looked like an AC, except that module. I wonder if other people here have spotted anything.

Click to expand...

Something like that ??



Deino

Re: PLAN Carrier Construction

if the carrier is of modular construction, the fabrication of the modules could have been underway for some time in some enclosed or even off-site locations before the first recognizeably carrier-like hull assembly appears out in the open in the yard. The first modules to appear may not reach flight deck or hanger deck level, and may extend only part of the ship's length, and so may not be easily recognized as parts of a carrier.