PLAN Carrier Strike Group and Airwing

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Hendrik_2000 said:

what common sense got to do with achieving technical goal You either meet your technical specification or you don't there is nothing halfway In every technical endeavour you have to satisfy test I believe the same thing happend with ship to You went for a shake down cruise and see if you meet the performance spec as to speed, endurance, fuel economy, working sensor and reliability. Irrespective whether you built one or a dozen

Click to expand...

Common sense goes something like this. Two people both try to do a task. One person has done it everyday for the last year and the other person has done it twice. Who do you think will do a better job of it? I don't question the way China's shipbuilding industry has advanced, but it's just not the same level as South Korea yet. That's why its orders have been mainly for bulk ships and VLCC rather than LNGs and cruise ships. Also, you can check out South Korean ship quality by the amount of money they go for in the second hand market. That's a good indication of how well the ships were built. btw, I'm not just saying this, I read as many articles as I can find on the shipbuilding battle between China and South Korea everyday. Thi is my personal feeling from what I read and see.

I believe you make those comment out of your inferiority complex that anything that South Korea built must be better than China

I am not here to prove anything What I'm saying is this is semi official acknowledgement that China is considering building a carrier and not some fanboy fertile imagination COSTIND is organ of China defense industry. China daily is the mouthpiece of CCCP

Click to expand...

lol, I'm the biggest realist you will find out PLAN. Can the South Koreans build 93k tonne carriers? no. Again, nobody here is saying that China is not going to build a carrier, but rather that it will be a while before it can build a 93k nuclear powered carrier.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Hendrik_2000 said:

what common sense got to do with achieving technical goal You either meet your technical specification or you don't there is nothing halfway In every technical endeavour you have to satisfy test I believe the same thing happend with ship to You went for a shake down cruise and see if you meet the performance spec as to speed, endurance, fuel economy, working sensor and reliability. Irrespective whether you built one or a dozen

Click to expand...

Common sense goes something like this. Two people both try to do a task. One person has done it everyday for the last year and the other person has done it twice. Who do you think will do a better job of it? I don't question the way China's shipbuilding industry has advanced, but it's just not the same level as South Korea yet. That's why its orders have been mainly for bulk ships and VLCC rather than LNGs and cruise ships. Also, you can check out South Korean ship quality by the amount of money they go for in the second hand market. That's a good indication of how well the ships were built. btw, I'm not just saying this, I read as many articles as I can find on the shipbuilding battle between China and South Korea everyday. Thi is my personal feeling from what I read and see.

I believe you make those comment out of your inferiority complex that anything that South Korea built must be better than China

I am not here to prove anything What I'm saying is this is semi official acknowledgement that China is considering building a carrier and not some fanboy fertile imagination COSTIND is organ of China defense industry. China daily is the mouthpiece of CCCP

Click to expand...

lol, I'm the biggest realist you will find out PLAN. Can the South Koreans build 93k tonne carriers? no. Again, nobody here is saying that China is not going to build a carrier, but rather that it will be a while before it can build a 93k nuclear powered carrier.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Hendrik_2000 said:

what common sense got to do with achieving technical goal You either meet your technical specification or you don't there is nothing halfway In every technical endeavour you have to satisfy test I believe the same thing happend with ship to You went for a shake down cruise and see if you meet the performance spec as to speed, endurance, fuel economy, working sensor and reliability. Irrespective whether you built one or a dozen

Click to expand...

Common sense goes something like this. Two people both try to do a task. One person has done it everyday for the last year and the other person has done it twice. Who do you think will do a better job of it? I don't question the way China's shipbuilding industry has advanced, but it's just not the same level as South Korea yet. That's why its orders have been mainly for bulk ships and VLCC rather than LNGs and cruise ships. Also, you can check out South Korean ship quality by the amount of money they go for in the second hand market. That's a good indication of how well the ships were built. btw, I'm not just saying this, I read as many articles as I can find on the shipbuilding battle between China and South Korea everyday. Thi is my personal feeling from what I read and see.

I believe you make those comment out of your inferiority complex that anything that South Korea built must be better than China

I am not here to prove anything What I'm saying is this is semi official acknowledgement that China is considering building a carrier and not some fanboy fertile imagination COSTIND is organ of China defense industry. China daily is the mouthpiece of CCCP

Click to expand...

lol, I'm the biggest realist you will find out PLAN. Can the South Koreans build 93k tonne carriers? no. Again, nobody here is saying that China is not going to build a carrier, but rather that it will be a while before it can build a 93k nuclear powered carrier.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Jeff Head said:

....
On the other hand, if the PLAN is using the old soviet hardware models to learn from, and then improve upon (which is what I believe they will do), then you will see the Varyag come out and test and train so that the PLAN gets expertise and operational experience over then 4-6 years following the Varyag's launch.

Then, and the folloing is purely based on my own best guess, 4-6 years after that, you will see the PLAN build a couple of CTOL carriers (meaning with some form of cat) to take advantage of that learning. Probably in the 50-60,000 ton range. After that, now with three opertional carriers, another 6 years and perhaps you will see a large carrie like the spoken of here...but that is now in the 2020 or later time frame.

.....

Click to expand...

my five cents:

1) Varjag to be finished by 2010 as trainee-carrier
2) 1 - 2 smaller 20000 ts "Helo" carriers incl. cats for amphibious operations to be finished nearby 2015
3) a big stick > 90000 ts to be finished by 2020 or later

especially the succession of 2 and 3 seems to be economical and sensible, also useful for PLANs need

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Jeff Head said:

....
On the other hand, if the PLAN is using the old soviet hardware models to learn from, and then improve upon (which is what I believe they will do), then you will see the Varyag come out and test and train so that the PLAN gets expertise and operational experience over then 4-6 years following the Varyag's launch.

Then, and the folloing is purely based on my own best guess, 4-6 years after that, you will see the PLAN build a couple of CTOL carriers (meaning with some form of cat) to take advantage of that learning. Probably in the 50-60,000 ton range. After that, now with three opertional carriers, another 6 years and perhaps you will see a large carrie like the spoken of here...but that is now in the 2020 or later time frame.

.....

Click to expand...

my five cents:

1) Varjag to be finished by 2010 as trainee-carrier
2) 1 - 2 smaller 20000 ts "Helo" carriers incl. cats for amphibious operations to be finished nearby 2015
3) a big stick > 90000 ts to be finished by 2020 or later

especially the succession of 2 and 3 seems to be economical and sensible, also useful for PLANs need

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

Jeff Head said:

....
On the other hand, if the PLAN is using the old soviet hardware models to learn from, and then improve upon (which is what I believe they will do), then you will see the Varyag come out and test and train so that the PLAN gets expertise and operational experience over then 4-6 years following the Varyag's launch.

Then, and the folloing is purely based on my own best guess, 4-6 years after that, you will see the PLAN build a couple of CTOL carriers (meaning with some form of cat) to take advantage of that learning. Probably in the 50-60,000 ton range. After that, now with three opertional carriers, another 6 years and perhaps you will see a large carrie like the spoken of here...but that is now in the 2020 or later time frame.

.....

Click to expand...

my five cents:

1) Varjag to be finished by 2010 as trainee-carrier
2) 1 - 2 smaller 20000 ts "Helo" carriers incl. cats for amphibious operations to be finished nearby 2015
3) a big stick > 90000 ts to be finished by 2020 or later

especially the succession of 2 and 3 seems to be economical and sensible, also useful for PLANs need

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

tphuang said:

Common sense goes something like this. Two people both try to do a task. One person has done it everyday for the last year and the other person has done it twice. Who do you think will do a better job of it?

Click to expand...

I think this is the crux of the argument. I don't believe this analogy holds up when you increase the scale to thousands of people over several decades. A large military project is a combination of very many skills, and most of these skills have a civilian counterpart. For the ones that don't you 1) hire from other countries, 2) develop the skills with intensive R&D effort, or 3) live with the fact that this particular area (not the whole ship) will be inferior. Even option three isn't the end of the world - nobody said the ship had to be perfect.

A lot of this also depends on just how much China wants to spend. If money was no object they could just start pumping out inferior carriers right now. Just retrofit containerships much like what the U.S. did in 1922. They wouldn't be very useful in a battle, but it would speed up the learning curve immensely. Pump out a new, slightly improved version every year and by 2020 you'd have something fairly decent. I'm not saying they should do that (and certainly they won't), but the point remains that you can speed up R&D by throwing more resources at the problem.

A more realistic way forward would be to launch the Varyag. Over the next six years build cruisers, and a domestic Varyag-like aircraft carrier (or maybe helicopter carriers). With that base of experience start intensive work on a large carrier around 2013.

Anyway, it sounds like the disagreement is really about whether a supercarrier can be built by 2020 (in 13 years) or 2027 (20 years). I think this is mostly an issue of will. Honestly I don't see why they should be in a great rush, but if they are then they can certainly do it.

... Ami.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

tphuang said:

Common sense goes something like this. Two people both try to do a task. One person has done it everyday for the last year and the other person has done it twice. Who do you think will do a better job of it?

Click to expand...

I think this is the crux of the argument. I don't believe this analogy holds up when you increase the scale to thousands of people over several decades. A large military project is a combination of very many skills, and most of these skills have a civilian counterpart. For the ones that don't you 1) hire from other countries, 2) develop the skills with intensive R&D effort, or 3) live with the fact that this particular area (not the whole ship) will be inferior. Even option three isn't the end of the world - nobody said the ship had to be perfect.

A lot of this also depends on just how much China wants to spend. If money was no object they could just start pumping out inferior carriers right now. Just retrofit containerships much like what the U.S. did in 1922. They wouldn't be very useful in a battle, but it would speed up the learning curve immensely. Pump out a new, slightly improved version every year and by 2020 you'd have something fairly decent. I'm not saying they should do that (and certainly they won't), but the point remains that you can speed up R&D by throwing more resources at the problem.

A more realistic way forward would be to launch the Varyag. Over the next six years build cruisers, and a domestic Varyag-like aircraft carrier (or maybe helicopter carriers). With that base of experience start intensive work on a large carrier around 2013.

Anyway, it sounds like the disagreement is really about whether a supercarrier can be built by 2020 (in 13 years) or 2027 (20 years). I think this is mostly an issue of will. Honestly I don't see why they should be in a great rush, but if they are then they can certainly do it.

... Ami.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

tphuang said:

Common sense goes something like this. Two people both try to do a task. One person has done it everyday for the last year and the other person has done it twice. Who do you think will do a better job of it?

Click to expand...

I think this is the crux of the argument. I don't believe this analogy holds up when you increase the scale to thousands of people over several decades. A large military project is a combination of very many skills, and most of these skills have a civilian counterpart. For the ones that don't you 1) hire from other countries, 2) develop the skills with intensive R&D effort, or 3) live with the fact that this particular area (not the whole ship) will be inferior. Even option three isn't the end of the world - nobody said the ship had to be perfect.

A lot of this also depends on just how much China wants to spend. If money was no object they could just start pumping out inferior carriers right now. Just retrofit containerships much like what the U.S. did in 1922. They wouldn't be very useful in a battle, but it would speed up the learning curve immensely. Pump out a new, slightly improved version every year and by 2020 you'd have something fairly decent. I'm not saying they should do that (and certainly they won't), but the point remains that you can speed up R&D by throwing more resources at the problem.

A more realistic way forward would be to launch the Varyag. Over the next six years build cruisers, and a domestic Varyag-like aircraft carrier (or maybe helicopter carriers). With that base of experience start intensive work on a large carrier around 2013.

Anyway, it sounds like the disagreement is really about whether a supercarrier can be built by 2020 (in 13 years) or 2027 (20 years). I think this is mostly an issue of will. Honestly I don't see why they should be in a great rush, but if they are then they can certainly do it.

... Ami.

Re: Ideal chinese carrier thread

I think this is the crux of the argument. I don't believe this analogy holds up when you increase the scale to thousands of people over several decades. A large military project is a combination of very many skills, and most of these skills have a civilian counterpart. For the ones that don't you 1) hire from other countries, 2) develop the skills with intensive R&D effort, or 3) live with the fact that this particular area (not the whole ship) will be inferior. Even option three isn't the end of the world - nobody said the ship had to be perfect.

Click to expand...

Exactly! I remember when Canada built the city class frigate in the late 80's She completely lost her warship building capability after long hiatus of 25 years There is not a single shipyard that built warship But She still has St John Shipyard that continue building civilian freighter And She still the world leader in process industry Worst ,There is not single company that built military sensor like radar and
fcs but she has thriving industry in supplying Radar to civilian airport.

In no time at all She build brand new shipyard to built naval warship St John hire many british naval designer and skill trade men by boatload.Form a new company to design Naval sensor in cooperation with leading university.The strength of Canadian industry save the day