PLAN Carrier Construction

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Divide all the time scales you gave by 2 :)
Sorry, IMHO, no.

I have a lot of respect for what the Chinese/PLAN are accomplishing and can accomplish and have been watching carefully now for going on fifteen years.

The numbers I listed are probably the most optimistic you can expect...and they are very optimistic. More likely add years to my schedule.

One thing is for sure...time will tell and reveal all of this regarding the Chinese carrier build schedules and time frames.
 
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chuck731

Banned Idiot
Indeed, a carrier will be by far the most complicated ship yet attempted by the Chinese ship building industry, and in many ways totally different from any vessel ever attempted by them. Studying a finished product only gets you so far. some twists and turns in the development process can't be seen in the final product. So the chinese may yet run into problems they did not suspect existed as they build their new carrier. Whatever prowess building 45% of the world's merchant tonnage in 2012 may have given them, building the first carrier, especially one this ambitious (no other country ever attempted a 67,000 ton carrier with their first effort) will still be an overwhelming challenge.
 
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Engineer

Major
The 7 years it takes for USN to build a Mimitz class CVN is made possible by the fact the United States has had the Nimitz class carrier in continuous series production at the same yard for 40 years. The first indigenous Chinese carrier, being the first ever, will likely take substantially longer to build and much longer to work out all the adjustments and issues before the ship is truly ready for full service, although any lengthy period of pre-service adjustment may not be appearent to the outside observer.

A Nimitz class taking seven years may not have so much to do with sophistication. It could have more to do with balancing between the budget of procuring carriers and retaining experience in building carriers. It is entirely possible that the US could finish one carrier in half the time, but just chosen not to.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Sorry, IMHO, no.

I have a lot of respect for what the Chinese/PLAN are accomplishing and can accomplish and have been watching carefully now for going on fifteen years.

The numbers I listed are probably the most optimistic you can expect...and they are very optimistic. More likely add years to my schedule.

One thing is for sure...time will tell and reveal all of this regarding the Chinese carrier build schedules and time frames.

The US was able to build two carriers every three months during the fight with Japan. So it's not a case of sophistication, industry, or capital.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
The US was able to build two carriers every three months during the fight with Japan. So it's not a case of sophistication, industry, or capital.
When you compare those World War II carriers to today's carriers, whether a US nuclear carrier, or a carrier like the Liaoning, it certainly is an issue of sophistication, industry, and capital.

There is no comparison between those vessels...even though at the time it was certainly impressive what the US did...and the vessels of today and the technology, the required industrial complex, and the amount of funding I takes to do them.

The US seven year number is from start to commissioning of a Nimitz class. You can increase the production rate by staggering them at two different yards...but each will still take that amount of time. In an all-out full-war footing, the US might, with all of its experience, be able to cut out all the margins and excessive union and safety regulations (thereby making it a more dangerous job) and get one from start to commission in as little as four years...but a complete different mind set would have had to take hold in the country among the people and the politicians. That would mean building one in say 30 months, and then trialing and commissioning in another 18 months. But that is not happening any time soon.

I believe China, right now, not on a war footing or austerity/rush schedule is going to take an absolute minimum of six years start to finish...and that is for non-nuclear vessels and if everything goes perfectly. And it isn't going to.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Well, let's suppose that they have already started building the Liaoning II. They could finish it in the next four years, and commission it 2 years later...and have it operational two after that (supposing that things go well with both the 1st Liaoning and the J-15).

Let's further suppose that with everything going well with the 1st Liaoning and the J-15, that they settle on a CATOBAR design and their go forward policy six years from now (as the Liaoning II is commissioned) and start building that CATOBAR design. Aggressive but doable if everything goes well.

Give them five years for building the first of class CATOBAR, which means that they launch it eleven years from now, and potentially have it operational in fifteen.

Now, this makes some hefty suppositions, that the 2nd STOBAR is already building and that nothing but positive, good things happen and they stay on course that whole time.

But, the Chinese could do this in the next fifteen years and have two Liaoning type carriers and one full up CATOBAR carrier in that time frame. That's the soonest I see it happening now.

If they experience any difficult problems, that all gets pushed back.


For the indigenous stobar (001A), I'm not sure it will take two whole years for the ship to be "operational" (for instance, being able to launch and arrest aircraft etc) but it may take that long to be "fully operational" as in having a fully competent crew and airwing that can do high rate sorties reliably.

There is an idea that the CATOBAR carrier (002) may start building before 001A is finished/commissioned, because Dalian is building 001A and JNCX is building 002, which may shave off quite a few years from the 15 year estimate.

Aside from that, I agree with everything.


The US was able to build two carriers every three months during the fight with Japan. So it's not a case of sophistication, industry, or capital.

The US was in a wartime economy. Also, are you seriously comparing a WWII carrier to a modern supercarrier?
It's like saying boeing could build 1 B-24s an hour and over 600 a month, and that somehow should carry forward to today that the US can surely churn out similar numbers of B-2s in similar time frames.

And it's exactly a case of sophistification of the product, the industry of the country, and the capital available to fund it, all interacting with each other which determines the production rate.

Unless China decides to go to war in the next decade, they are going to take it as slow and safe as they can practically make it. They're going to avoid risk like the plague.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Educated guess would be 2025-2028 before PLAN's first CATOBAR is sailing the high seas. Their 2nd CATOBAR would follow suit possibly 4-5 years after that. I am guessing they will stagger their built. I guess I'll check back on this post again in 15 years to see how off I am LOL ;)

good odds by 2030 PLAN will have 2 STOBARs and 1 CATOBAR commissioned with another one close to completion. By 2040 they will most likely have their first CVN commissioned and another one building to replace Liaoning soon after.
Long term prediction is by 2050, PLAN will have 3 (possibly 4) CVNs and 2 CVs and a STOBAR. Liaoning would be scrap metal OR she may finally become that floating casino in some twist of fate! At any rate by then I may have gone to meet the good Lord so who cares... :p

That is of course me totally pulling things out of thin air because if there's one thing certain bout predicting the future is it is quite impossible to predict. 15 years ago if you'd told me china would in 15 years build airplanes that is on parity or better than the F-15s and F-16s I would've laugh.. same with destroyers that are similar to the Burkes. I'm refering to the J-20, J-10B and 054D of course.
 
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chuck731

Banned Idiot
The US was able to build two carriers every three months during the fight with Japan. So it's not a case of sophistication, industry, or capital.


The Essex class heavy fleet carrier represents only 0.05% of WWII GDP, compare to roughly 0.1% contemporary GDP a Nimitz represents.

And the US, in maximum war time mobilization, commiting 30% gdp to military spending, building the Essex class simultaneously in 5 different shipyards at once, only managed to commission 15 of the during the war, or roughly 1 every 3 month.

The other carrier classes built in WWII were either converted merchant ships or converted light cruisers, not at all comparable to true fleet carrier.
 
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delft

Brigadier
Master Delft, I would respectfully disagree that the Soviet Union has always been defensive, "paranoid schizophrenic" yeah, I am thinking of the purges of their own people under Stalin, a very aggressive stance in the cold war, and the ruthless murder of political opponents, and the famous winter vacations to Siberia, not to be rude, but they seem rather willing to supply arms to Ruthless Dictators????? might give me pause for thought, so as we get back to our discussion of the PLAN Carrier Construction, it would prolly help to stick to the hardware, and yes, sailors and airmen alike want good equipment that give them a chance of survival against the elements, and triumph over their enemies, if it shines up nice and can be used for better purposes so much the better. brat
OT
Let's keep to external matters. The Soviet Union drove out Western interventionists in the 1920's, in Europe the British forces in the North and in the Black Sea, the Caucasus and the Caspian, in Siberia the Japanese and the US. RN was able to cut out Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania that had been part of the Russian Empire, Finland for just over a century, the others much longer. Poland was able to take half of Belarus. In the thirties it defended itself against Japanese aggression and supported the Spanish Republic against Franco's fascists which were supported by Italy and Germany. In 1938 they were prepared to support Czechoslovakia together with Western powers but UK and France preferred the Munich agreement. In 1939 while the the USSR was at war with Japan ( Khalkhin Gol ) Germany prepared to invade Poland. Because UK had been unable to get Poland to accept Soviet support ( see
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) and an accord with Germany would pull the fangs from the Strike North faction in Japan the Soviet Union signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in August 1939 and occupied the Eastern Belarus speaking part of Poland. This increased the approach road to Moscow for the German army significantly. In preparation for the expected German assault the Soviet Union took Bessarabia from Romania, part of Karelia from Finland and occupied the three Baltic states. In 1941 the Soviet Union occupied Iran together with UK.

This is getting too long. After WWII the US sponsored very many more dictators than the USSR. Think of those in South Korea, on Taiwan, in South Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt, Zaire, Portugal, many in South America &c. And while the interventions of the USSR in Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan were objectionable they can more easily be defended than for examples the US interventions in Vietnam, Lebanon ( twice ) or Granada.

Indeed let's get back to hardware. In general ships belonging to a certain class will be larger when they are built later. Dreadnoughts started in 1906 with 12" guns. They were soon succeeded by 13,5" and then 15" super-dreadnoughts and only the last were maintained by RN after WWI. On a longer time scale those of us acquainted with Forester's Hornblower novels will likely remember the ship rigged sloop Hotspur with 20 9-pounder guns. The National Maritime Museum in Greenwich has a model of a similar ship but with 6-pounder guns from 1719 that is called a frigate. But in the case of aircraft carriers I see a possibility that future ships will be smaller than 100k. For many of its tasks a smaller ship is adequate and cheaper. It just depends on how important those tasks are considered to be where the larger ship is significantly superior. And that greatly depends on the geo-strategic position of the country owning the ship. For example a small country like the UK is probably better served by three 30k flattops than by two 65k ones that cost about the same. So my question is what is the optimum size of Chinese carriers? The US is now building two sizes, 100k and 40k. Will China too go for two sizes?

Addendum: by going for a smaller ship they might shave a year of the building time and start collecting experience with the new flattop that much earlier. As always its just a matter of countless compromises.
 
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foxmulder

Junior Member
Sorry, IMHO, no.

I have a lot of respect for what the Chinese/PLAN are accomplishing and can accomplish and have been watching carefully now for going on fifteen years.

The numbers I listed are probably the most optimistic you can expect...and they are very optimistic. More likely add years to my schedule.

One thing is for sure...time will tell and reveal all of this regarding the Chinese carrier build schedules and time frames.

Our main difference is you think that COTABAR studies will start 6 years from now, I think it is already in design stage. That is why I am pretty sure we will see COTABAR much earlier than your guess.
 
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