Air operations on a Kiev wouldn't prove that a ski ramp wasn't good enough.They initially went with STOBAR because the extremely influential Soviet minister of defence Dimitri Ustinov was not sold on the notion that allowing fixed wing naval aircraft to develop their full range and payload potential was really worth the added cost of a full sized CATOBAR carrier in the context of overall soviet strategy, despite the intensive lobbying of Soviet Navy. Ustinov was influential enough so that he was effectively the king maker in kremlin, and without his support one could not succeed to the supreme position in the soviet state and the communist party. So his views carried the day over those of the navy.
He was eventually pursuaded to changed his mind, after Kuznetsov has been approved, when the navy invited him to witness the air operation aboard a Kiev class carrier to convince him of the inadaquacy of a carrier lacking catapults. This led to approval of Ulyanovsk while construction of Kuznetsov hasn't proceeded very far.
Air operations on a Kiev wouldn't prove that a ski ramp wasn't good enough.
The Sovjet Union was always defensively orientated at least because it simply lacked economic power and perhaps also for ideological reasons. It was born in a civil war that lasted years, then was confronted by Japan from about 1935 or earlier, by Germany from about the same time. But it is natural for naval officers to want better equipment.Yet it is what is said to have convinced Dimitri Ustinov.
Remember the Soviet Navy lobbied for a full CATOBAR nuclear super carrier comparable to the Enterprise back in the 1960s. It was shot down by then minister of defence Andrei Grechko because Grechko thought additional capability offered by full carrier was of limited utility to Soviet surface fleet focus of offensive ASW. So Grechko told the navy to make do with a much scaled down, ASW focused Kiev class, and as a minimal concession agreed to Yak-38. Yak-38 is really neither here nor there as for as real capabilities goes, but the navy took it as a very small step in the right direction. When Ustionov succeeded Grechko the Soviet navy focus has changed back to supporting engagement with US carrier battle groups further off shore, so the navy tried again to lobby for a full CATOBAR CVN. Ustinov repeated Grechko's line, but acknowledged Yak-38 was more or less useless and conceeded that successor to the Kiev needs to at least be able to mount a real combat air patrol over the fleet, so was born the Kuznetsov. When Kuznetsov was barely begun but design for her aircraft was already well underway, the navy invited Ustinov to the Kiev (or maybe the Minsk, exact ship I don't remember). I don't know exactly what the navy showed and what the navy alluded to, but Ustinov left convinced Kuznetsov had been a misstep and a full CATOBAR carrier comparable to the Nimitz was needed.
The Sovjet Union was always defensively orientated at least because it simply lacked economic power and perhaps also for ideological reasons. It was born in a civil war that lasted years, then was confronted by Japan from about 1935 or earlier, by Germany from about the same time. But it is natural for naval officers to want better equipment.
Well, let's suppose that they have already started building the Liaoning II. They could finish it in the next four years, and commission it 2 years later...and have it operational two after that (supposing that things go well with both the 1st Liaoning and the J-15).
Let's further suppose that with everything going well with the 1st Liaoning and the J-15, that they settle on a CATOBAR design and their go forward policy six years from now (as the Liaoning II is commissioned) and start building that CATOBAR design. Aggressive but doable if everything goes well.
Give them five years for building the first of class CATOBAR, which means that they launch it eleven years from now, and potentially have it operational in fifteen.
Now, this makes some hefty suppositions, that the 2nd STOBAR is already building and that nothing but positive, good things happen and they stay on course that whole time.
But, the Chinese could do this in the next fifteen years and have two Liaoning type carriers and one full up CATOBAR carrier in that time frame. That's the soonest I see it happening now.
If they experience any difficult problems, that all gets pushed back.
Divide all the time scales you gave by 2
Whatever happened to the photo of what seemed to be a amphibious assault ship near completion?
Not going to happen.. It takes the US seven years to build a CVN. It takes about five years to build and LHA/LHD...