PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

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Blitzo

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I think your statement is misrepresenting the causative nature of events and outcome. Rumours eventually became outcomes not because they are filtered but because actual events itself will generate rumours and filtering is an attempt to differentiate actual events from fabrication. In other words, no amount of filtering will bring to pass fabricated events.


The point is if you make enough prediction on which mud will stick, eventually some will eventuate according to prediction. Such a result doesn't mean the mud prediction method is sound.

My point is that the goal of filtering is to identify the more potentially credible rumours which like you said are reflective of actual events.

I'm obviously not suggesting that filtering of rumours somehow means the ones we choose end up becoming real.



The nature of professional judgement is exercised based on some grounded methodology and are not rumour based. I am not saying that they are not relevant as a source that may warrant further investigation but no respectable defence intelligence will base judgement on rumours only. As such, assessments will always lag because evidence needs to be corroborated. It boils down to accountability. Unfortunately in forums, people can say all kinds of things without real accountability other than maybe getting ban.

Let's put it another way -- I find it interesting/confusing that they had not attempted to try and apply scientific and critical analysis methodology to rumours... and they can be openly acknowledged as rumours that had passed through their own professional filtering as well.
In fact, of the mainstream western defence commentators only Richard Fisher has consistently done what I've described.


Getting back to the subject on carrier 02 and steam vs EMAL, if I understand the issue correctly, the rumour is that the final design is subject to modification should the EMAL option be adopted. Given the long planning cycle associated with carrier development, why wouldn't the steam vs. EMAL option be a carrier 03 design consideration? What factors are in play that makes it a carrier 02 consideration and not for a subsequent design adoption?

Excellent question.

The way I understand it, is that up until recently, 002 (or at least the first 002 ship) was generally accepted to be using steam catapults, and certain elements in the military was more keen on the steam catapults. However, two things caused that plan to change:
1: Rear Admiral Ma (the technical admiral involved in developing a variety of new technologies for the Navy, including EM cats, IEPS, and railguns) was able to demonstrate EM cats to a successful degree
2: some of the high brass in the military who had preferred steam cats and blocked EM catapults were rumoured to have fallen from grace due to corruption charges
Those two factors made EM cats a more viable contender.

Beyond that, we also highly suspect/expect/know that the EM cat and steam cat will be undergoing a competition of some sort, and recent credible rumours have also strongly suggested 002's construction may be undergoing some major change and delay.
Therefore, putting all those together, the major consensus and conclusion that has been forming is that the 002's supposed major delay is related to the catapult competition.

[Now, I appreciate that you and some others may not look very kindly towards rumours, however I'm calling these as I see them and applying my own experience in judging and weighing the possibilities, so take my judgements as you want.]

As to why the Navy may be willing to accept a delay in 002's construction for EM catapult vs steam catapult...

There are a few reasons which together could make it a sensible proposition:

1: 002's design process would have definitely lasted years, but if they had designed 002 with the idea of eventually replacing their steam cats with EM cats later on in its life, then it may be a "relatively" easy (but still major) redesign to replace 002 vessel one's steam cats with EM cats with only a delay of a few years.
2: related to point 1, delaying the construction of 002 by a few years may not be as major of an issue depending on what stage of the design/fabrication process they are at. If they had already begun assembling the modules with much of the design and construction already frozen then it may be untenable to modify the design and hull for EM cats. But if they had yet to fabricate anything and were waiting for the Navy's go ahead to begin with, then delaying fabrication for a couple of years may not be as major of an issue.
3: if the Navy did buy steam cats, they would likely end up operating it for quite a long time on the ships that operated it, namely 002 vessel one (let's call it CV-18). If they committed to steam cats for CV-18 alone, that would require a substantial support infrastructure for steam cats which would only operate on one or possibly two aircraft carriers, despite the fact that EM cats will definitely replace steam cats on later carriers as the longer term catapult type. Therefore, they might be able to have substantial cost savings if a competition between EM cats and steam cats proves that EM cats are able to meet standards "earlier" than previously thought, and essentially skips the need to invest in steam cat production and a support and maintenance capability for steam cats.
4: performance. As said above in point 2, EM cats are definitely the way of the future, and can offer substantial improvements in performance. The Navy may well be willing to accept a couple years of delay of receiving their first CATOBAR carrier if it means that CATOBAR carrier has a substantially more capable/flexible catapult than what they may otherwise receive if CV-18 was delivered a couple of years earlier.

Those are the major reasons I can come up with, there may be more. I also want to emphasize that the four points above are meant to all operate in conjunction with each other, because obviously any single one point alone is not sufficiently convincing to make the rumours of 002 delaying construction for the catapult competition sensible.
 

Brumby

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The way I understand it, is that up until recently, 002 (or at least the first 002 ship) was generally accepted to be using steam catapults, and certain elements in the military was more keen on the steam catapults. However, two things caused that plan to change:
1: Rear Admiral Ma (the technical admiral involved in developing a variety of new technologies for the Navy, including EM cats, IEPS, and railguns) was able to demonstrate EM cats to a successful degree
2: some of the high brass in the military who had preferred steam cats and blocked EM catapults were rumoured to have fallen from grace due to corruption charges
Those two factors made EM cats a more viable contender.
Being able to demonstrate EM cats in a controlled environment doesn't mean the technology is ready for prime time. A current example are the problems the US is finding out with EM cats in their CVN78 build. Secondly a change of guard might re-open some prior decisions but I don't think EM cats is sufficiently compelling to cause a major decision overhaul. Even the much more transparent CVN 78 program could not in my view demonstrate a sufficiently compelling case and that was even before the significant cost overrun. The technology is not sufficiently matured. Given that China has historically been very conservative with its build strategy and even 001A is primarily sticking close to the Russian design, 002 with cats is in itself a very challenging build. Overlaying EM cats on top seems a very aggressive approach and very inconsistent with China's historical conservative approach to such type of program.

Beyond that, we also highly suspect/expect/know that the EM cat and steam cat will be undergoing a competition of some sort, and recent credible rumours have also strongly suggested 002's construction may be undergoing some major change and delay.
Therefore, putting all those together, the major consensus and conclusion that has been forming is that the 002's supposed major delay is related to the catapult competition.
Even if the rumored competition is true, it does not necessarily mean is targeted for carrier 002. Additionally, the supposedly delay in 002's construction could be due to other build issues. Connecting imaginary dots in the absence of concrete evidence is highly questionable by excluding other possible factors.

As to why the Navy may be willing to accept a delay in 002's construction for EM catapult vs steam catapult...

There are a few reasons which together could make it a sensible proposition:

1: 002's design process would have definitely lasted years, but if they had designed 002 with the idea of eventually replacing their steam cats with EM cats later on in its life, then it may be a "relatively" easy (but still major) redesign to replace 002 vessel one's steam cats with EM cats with only a delay of a few years.
The immediate problem is the simplistic view that opting for EM cats will merely cause a re-design finalisation. I think it is reasonable to assume that China had spent considerable time on steam cats and how the overall carrier design would come together. This means a considerable amount of steam cats technological expertise had been home grown with the view that they would be brought together to build carrier 002. A change to EM cats would be a significant dislocation to the whole plan, not just in design but in program execution and how the parts will come together. Just look at the pain the US is going through to build CVN 78.

2: related to point 1, delaying the construction of 002 by a few years may not be as major of an issue depending on what stage of the design/fabrication process they are at. If they had already begun assembling the modules with much of the design and construction already frozen then it may be untenable to modify the design and hull for EM cats. But if they had yet to fabricate anything and were waiting for the Navy's go ahead to begin with, then delaying fabrication for a couple of years may not be as major of an issue.
China does not have any prior experience in design and building steam cats carrier. Going to EM cats is even more difficult. Just look at the pain the US had in transitioning from steam to EM considering the depth of their carrier construction expertise.

3: if the Navy did buy steam cats, they would likely end up operating it for quite a long time on the ships that operated it, namely 002 vessel one (let's call it CV-18). If they committed to steam cats for CV-18 alone, that would require a substantial support infrastructure for steam cats which would only operate on one or possibly two aircraft carriers, despite the fact that EM cats will definitely replace steam cats on later carriers as the longer term catapult type. Therefore, they might be able to have substantial cost savings if a competition between EM cats and steam cats proves that EM cats are able to meet standards "earlier" than previously thought, and essentially skips the need to invest in steam cat production and a support and maintenance capability for steam cats.
Have you seen any empirical evidence in cost savings between steam and EM cats? The numbers coming out of the CVN 78 in my view are highly questionable and maybe wishful thinking.

4: performance. As said above in point 2, EM cats are definitely the way of the future, and can offer substantial improvements in performance. The Navy may well be willing to accept a couple years of delay of receiving their first CATOBAR carrier if it means that CATOBAR carrier has a substantially more capable/flexible catapult than what they may otherwise receive if CV-18 was delivered a couple of years earlier.
I don't think the performance figures will stack up if put under a microscope. What performance numbers are you basing on?
 

Micron

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:) Surely when PLAN Rear Admiral Ma Weiming, the head of the team that has won a top national award for the electromagnetic catapult, told Hong Kong Media in an interview last year 2015 that China does not lag behind the US in the development of electromagnetic catapult, it must have meant something.

Unless our layman detractors in here are claiming that they knows EMAL technology better than him.

Ma also stated that US only began its emal catapult in 2009 while China had already has a full working prototype for testing back in 2011.

He believes that China’s own R&D electromagnetic catapult is not only as good as the US and is more advanced in some areas.
 

Blitzo

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Being able to demonstrate EM cats in a controlled environment doesn't mean the technology is ready for prime time. A current example are the problems the US is finding out with EM cats in their CVN78 build. Secondly a change of guard might re-open some prior decisions but I don't think EM cats is sufficiently compelling to cause a major decision overhaul. Even the much more transparent CVN 78 program could not in my view demonstrate a sufficiently compelling case and that was even before the significant cost overrun. The technology is not sufficiently matured. Given that China has historically been very conservative with its build strategy and even 001A is primarily sticking close to the Russian design, 002 with cats is in itself a very challenging build. Overlaying EM cats on top seems a very aggressive approach and very inconsistent with China's historical conservative approach to such type of program.

When I spoke of "successful demonstration" I was not referring to some degree of supposed technical capability or absolute degree of maturity, but rather I meant it that the EM cat was successfully demonstrated to a degree that the navy brass were willing to take a chance to have it compete with steam.

Obviously I have no idea as to what the navy's definition of successfully perceiving it may be.

As for demonstrating the catapult in the competition -- yes, absolutely, being able to demonstrate it in a competition also does not mean the product is ready for the prime time either.
However, the point of the competition is to see which of the two products: steam cat vs EM cat, is more "ready for prime time".



Even if the rumored competition is true, it does not necessarily mean is targeted for carrier 002. Additionally, the supposedly delay in 002's construction could be due to other build issues. Connecting imaginary dots in the absence of concrete evidence is highly questionable by excluding other possible factors.

Yes. However, that is how the dots have been connected thus far, and in my opinion it is connected in a way which is not unfeasible.
Is it possible that the competition could be for a carrier after 002? Definitely possible. We can never exclude confounding factors.



The immediate problem is the simplistic view that opting for EM cats will merely cause a re-design finalisation. I think it is reasonable to assume that China had spent considerable time on steam cats and how the overall carrier design would come together. This means a considerable amount of steam cats technological expertise had been home grown with the view that they would be brought together to build carrier 002. A change to EM cats would be a significant dislocation to the whole plan, not just in design but in program execution and how the parts will come together. Just look at the pain the US is going through to build CVN 78.

As I said in my last few posts, this will depend on how they designed the 002 carrier to begin with, such as whether it was designed with the idea that the steam cats would eventually be replaced with EM and to make the eventual refit as easy as possible -- if such future proofing was done in mind, then the redesign work for EM cats to be included in the ship from construction (rather than a refit) could be substantially more practical.



China does not have any prior experience in design and building steam cats carrier. Going to EM cats is even more difficult. Just look at the pain the US had in transitioning from steam to EM considering the depth of their carrier construction expertise.

I think it is very questionable just how much technological overlap there is between steam cats and EM cats. They rely on some different principles, with steam relying on hydraulics and pressurized steam and EM cats relying on electrical energy stored via disc alternators and released by the linear induction motor.



Have you seen any empirical evidence in cost savings between steam and EM cats? The numbers coming out of the CVN 78 in my view are highly questionable and maybe wishful thinking.

I think you misunderstood my point -- I was talking about cost savings in terms of operational/maintenance costs.
I.e.: going with steam catapults on only one carrier when future carriers will be expected to use EM cats in the long term, thus saddling 002 with a short term subsystem that will still have to come with its own dedicated maintenance line for the duration of its operation.
OTOH, if the Navy can immediately jump to EM cats successfully then they can essentially "standardize" their catapults across the carrier fleet without having to further invest in a maintenance line for steam cats.

Of course this relies on the assumption that carriers after 002 will use EM cats... you may disagree with this.



I don't think the performance figures will stack up if put under a microscope. What performance numbers are you basing on?

No numbers, but I think the idea that mature EM cats will be superior to mature steam cats is generally accepted, with advantages such as EM cats placing less stress on aircraft during launch, greater adjustment of precision compared to steam.
One can argue whether the industry will be able to produce a sufficiently mature EM catapult... however it is reasonable to say that the Chinese Navy would undoubtedly be interested in the potential advantages of EM cats, and thus to adopt it earlier if only to work out the kinks



But I think you have misunderstood my position a little bit -- I'm not saying that the catapult competition will definitely result in the EM catapult coming out on top. For all we know maybe the steam catapult will perform better and they will not go with any redesign of 002 and simply continue with the steam catapult.

OTOH, I do think the idea of 002 being delayed in construction to wait for the results of the catapult competition (all while conducting redesign work for the possibility if the EM cat wins), is one which makes sense.
 
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Micron

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102327400.jpg


An old picture posted many years ago.
 

Blitzo

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Rear Admiral Ma Weiming revealed that China’s electromagnetic launch charged using ultra high voltage when USA is still applying conventional voltage charging.

102327404.jpg


I don't think that's Ma Weiming -- one can even see that the individual's name in that picture is Wang Dong.

This is Rear Admiral Ma Weiming:
vFnwbgQ.jpg
 

Micron

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Phoenix Television in its report in November 2015, stated that Chinese researchers have made breakthroughs in on a number of other related railgun research advances as well as electromagnetic aircraft launch systems (EMALS) and railguns, in areas from power storage to tougher barrel materials.

In the same report and according to their sources, EMALS catapults will be installed on Chinese aircraft carriers within the next decade to improve aircraft launching performance.

This means that China will leapfrog the STEAM catapult although and jump straight into EMAL which is more efficient and less stressful to the aircraft body frame.
 
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