PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

Intrepid said:

Even if 002 will get steam catapults, it will be prepared for a later change to EMALS. So for the keel laying and general layout the question about the type of catapult will be irrelevant.

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Yes, but whether 002 is fitted with steam or EM cat immediately, from the ground up will likely determine when we may end up seeing 002 start construction. (I'm also not sure if 002 will be able to easily switch from steam catapults to EM catapults later on in its life like you suggest, as I imagine that would require fairly substantial refit -- especially if 002's propulsion relies on older steam turbines rather than say more modern IEPS which can accommodate EM cats easier, later on in its life)

If the brass end up deciding on EM cats, and if it has (say, hypothetically) an additional two year delay in development needed compared to using steam cats, then we will likely have to wait an additional two years for 002 construction to begin compared to if 002 used steam cats -- because they won't simply build the rest of the hull and then leave it there for a few years for the catapults to catch up. There's also the fact that the ship itself will likely have to undergo some not unsubstantial design changes internally to facilitate an EM cat.

However we look at it, it makes complete sense that the type of catapult 002 uses will likely determine when it starts construction, and thus when we may first see 002's modules emerge at JN's drydock.

Building of an aircraft carrier means ten years of planning, five years preparation, two years in the drydock and three years off finalization. That process for 002 has startet long long ago.

When we see the first module lifted into the drydock, the process is already 75% finished.

Intrepid said:

Building of an aircraft carrier means ten years of planning, five years preparation, two years in the drydock and three years off finalization. That process for 002 has startet long long ago.

When we see the first module lifted into the drydock, the process is already 75% finished.

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I would tend to agree with you, but unfortunately at present it appears there is enough rumours and even photographic evidence to make it seem like 002's production schedule may be modified depending on what amounts to a fairly last minute struggle for what kind of catapult it will use from the outset.

Ultimately, the viability of doing a "last minute" change between a steam vs EM catapult (and the associated potential time delay) will depend on how comprehensive any design and construction changes are.

Bltizo said:

... but unfortunately at present it appears there is enough rumours and even photographic evidence to make it seem like 002's production schedule may be modified depending on what amounts to a fairly last minute struggle for what kind of catapult it will use from the outset.

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I didn't recognize that, because I am missing up-to-date sources. I am always two years behind.

Intrepid said:

I didn't recognize that, because I am missing up-to-date sources. I am always two years behind.

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Well the point of these sources is that they are rumours, and if they are true it may often take two or more years for them to eventuate, which is why I often find many mainstream defence commentators and even some govt and military intelligence reports to be a few years behind the leading edge. So don't feel too bad.


In any case, the point I'm making is that at present there seems to be enough noise to suggest 002 may undergo a design revision depending on the results of the steam vs EM cat competition, and such a design revision would naturally push back its construction date.

I second what Intrepid said. If they already had a design ready for a steam catapult carrier it seems difficult to believe that they would suspend this pending results of this so-called last minute EM vs steam cat competition.

This would be plausible if the 002 progress is much further behind, however that doesn't seem to be the mainstream opinion. Thr test site will likely not have immediate relevance on any classified carrier project that is just about to debut construction.

Bltizo said:

Well the point of these sources is that they are rumours, and if they are true it may often take two or more years for them to eventuate, which is why I often find many mainstream defence commentators and even some govt and military intelligence reports to be a few years behind the leading edge.

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The difference between intelligence report and rumours is that the former like any professional document there is a process that output a report. Rumours are like throwing mud against a wall, eventually some will stick but that doesn't make them any credible until after the fact.

Brumby said:

The difference between intelligence report and rumours is that the former like any professional document there is a process that output a report. Rumours are like throwing mud against a wall, eventually some will stick but that doesn't make them any credible until after the fact.

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Yes, I greatly appreciate that fact.

However, that doesn't also change the reality that more often than not, proper dissection and filtering of rumours are able to provide insights that only make their way into official literature many years later.
That critical analysis to try and sort the diamonds from the coal is why forums like SDF are so great, and it is why "throwing rumours to make them stick" really doesn't work.

I can't help but wonder if mainstream defence media and even defence intelligence may have been much less surprised at developments in recent years like J-20 if they had a few people assigned part time to read SDF and CDF.

Max Demian said:

I second what Intrepid said. If they already had a design ready for a steam catapult carrier it seems difficult to believe that they would suspend this pending results of this so-called last minute EM vs steam cat competition.

This would be plausible if the 002 progress is much further behind, however that doesn't seem to be the mainstream opinion. Thr test site will likely not have immediate relevance on any classified carrier project that is just about to debut construction.

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As I said before, it really depends on how comprehensive any design modification for EM cats will be, and also on the design of the ship itself and if such a design revision can be done in a time effective manner acceptable to the navy.

No doubt any design revision would be unorthodox, but it is probably overreaching to rule it out as a possibility given the present persistence of the credible rumours.

Bltizo said:

However, that doesn't also change the reality that more often than not, proper dissection and filtering of rumours are able to provide insights that only make their way into official literature many years later.

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I think your statement is misrepresenting the causative nature of events and outcome. Rumours eventually became outcomes not because they are filtered but because actual events itself will generate rumours and filtering is an attempt to differentiate actual events from fabrication. In other words, no amount of filtering will bring to pass fabricated events.

Bltizo said:

That critical analysis to try and sort the diamonds from the coal is why forums like SDF are so great, and it is why "throwing rumours to make them stick" really doesn't work.

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The point is if you make enough prediction on which mud will stick, eventually some will eventuate according to prediction. Such a result doesn't mean the mud prediction method is sound.

Bltizo said:

I can't help but wonder if mainstream defence media and even defence intelligence may have been much less surprised at developments in recent years like J-20 if they had a few people assigned part time to read SDF and CDF.

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The nature of professional judgement is exercised based on some grounded methodology and are not rumour based. I am not saying that they are not relevant as a source that may warrant further investigation but no respectable defence intelligence will base judgement on rumours only. As such, assessments will always lag because evidence needs to be corroborated. It boils down to accountability. Unfortunately in forums, people can say all kinds of things without real accountability other than maybe getting ban.

Getting back to the subject on carrier 02 and steam vs EMAL, if I understand the issue correctly, the rumour is that the final design is subject to modification should the EMAL option be adopted. Given the long planning cycle associated with carrier development, why wouldn't the steam vs. EMAL option be a carrier 03 design consideration? What factors are in play that makes it a carrier 02 consideration and not for a subsequent design adoption?