Jeff,
Maybe the aim for date is Oct 2016. Do you think it is doable given where they are and probably 3 weeks break for CNY?
Carriers are typically built to the very highest of standards in terms of water tight integrity, steel usage, combat survivability, etc. The Chinese I believe would build theirs t no less strict standards.
I see a LOT of internal structural work needed on the modules that they are placing on the vessel at the current time. Of course there is also all sorts of electrical and plumbing finish and termination work that has to be done for each as well.
I addition, the entire matter of the bow and the stern of the ship is yet to be done, as well as the flight deck and island.
Could they get all of that done by October? I suppose it is possible, but I think it unlikely.
As I said, if for whatever reason there is pressure or motivation to get this vessel in the water/launched, earlier and then finish a lot of this work during the time they would normally be installing and outfitting the other, non-structural and non-major mechanics...then they can do that...but it just means they will spend longer outfitting.
I have not seen the Chinese to date take such measures or steps. Generally, the vessels they launch are at a very complete stage of major systems and all structural components complete.
So, they could do it, but I think it more likely that they will launch a more complete vessel and that that will be in 2017.
That is still a phenomenal time to launch from when they very initially began laying down components very late last year. it will mean that they will launch the carrier in something under 2 1/2 years.
I believe after launch it will be another year at least before they take it to sea, and then another year after that before they initially commission her and start working her up towards initial operational capability. So...my best guess remains, launch 2017, to sea 2018, commissioned in 2019. Something like that.