PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

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Blitzo

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"White elephant" means if it costs more than its worth, has to be maintained because of prestige, and doesn't have much practical use. This can be the case if China's carrier program is at the opportunity cost of deploying an overall more effective force whether it be by sea, air, or land, if it provokes more than it deters others, and if it isn't actually used in a way where nothing else could have done the job.

Similar to what you described regarding 2030, before China's carriers are deployable, defensible, and likely to survive and serve its purpose against all likely opponents it falls under both "sitting duck" and "white elephant" definitions.

Would you accept that any goal to deploy an effective carrier capability would inherently require a period whereby a carrier would inevitably have a "sitting duck" and "white elephant" phase?


As it happens China's likely opponents include at least two of the top navies and air forces of the world and a number of significant albeit smaller militaries with competent naval and air arms.

Yes, but China's more likely foes and missions for carriers also include a number of smaller militaries and irregular forces beyond the western pacific where carriers are far more survivable (if not invulnerable), and those are combat missions where carriers would likely be actually used during normal extended operations rather than merely high intensity conflict.



Carriers offer a unique capability but they are not particularly flexible and are high maintenance especially in terms of finances and force organization. Consider the resources devoted to the carrier program could also make a lot of progress in other programs whether it be destroyers, cruisers, nuclear subs, tanker aircraft, strategic bombers, satellites, or missiles, all of which are much more flexible than carriers.

On the contrary, aircraft carriers are inherently flexible as they are the only ability any nation has to deploy fixed wing airpower to distant locations without the need for foreign basing, and the only ability a nation has to provide a naval task group with organic combat air patrol beyond land based air power.
 
Would you accept that any goal to deploy an effective carrier capability would inherently require a period whereby a carrier would inevitably have a "sitting duck" and "white elephant" phase?

Not necessarily for both. If China's other forces including carrier escorts are already on par with the competition, if it has a clear desire or need for action specifically with a carrier, then its carrier program would neither have a "sitting duck" nor a "white elephant" phase.

Yes, but China's more likely foes and missions for carriers also include a number of smaller militaries and irregular forces beyond the western pacific where carriers are far more survivable (if not invulnerable), and those are combat missions where carriers would likely be actually used during normal extended operations rather than merely high intensity conflict.

Not only are these low intensity scenarios hypothetical, China also has a demonstrated history and a continually voiced desire which is at the level of strategically choosing not to conduct such operations. Carrier operations are also not the only way for China to take such action if it suddenly does an about face. It has LPDs with rotary air assets, destroyers with stand-off missiles, marines, special forces, and friendly-enough nations who are likely open to Chinese forces transit, short, or even long term basing for the right price.

On the contrary, aircraft carriers are inherently flexible as they are the only ability any nation has to deploy fixed wing airpower to distant locations without the need for foreign basing, and the only ability a nation has to provide a naval task group with organic combat air patrol beyond land based air power.

Carriers are uniquely capable and within that scope comes flexibility. However it also comes with higher organizational, maintenance, and deployment costs of requiring escorts and demanding unique and additional logistical support which is inflexibility at a higher level.
 

Blitzo

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Not necessarily for both. If China's other forces including carrier escorts are already on par with the competition, if it has a clear desire or need for action specifically with a carrier, then its carrier program would neither have a "sitting duck" nor a "white elephant" phase.

What I'm saying, is that if a hypothetical nation sought to develop a carrier capability, then it may take anywhere from a few years, to a decade or more, for a carrier to transition from being a sitting duck to a non-sitting duck -- depending on the capability of the opposition and the capability for a nation to develop effective escorts and defenses for the carrier. No nation will be able to develop a new capability overnight, there will always be a lag time between induction and having full capability and then full operational capability doesn't necessarily mean full survivability against all threats either.

For China, to allow its carriers to be survivable against high intensity opponents in the western pacific means it will likely take a decade until they have a true fighting chance (mostly to catch up in the ASW realm), but if China had to conduct operations half way around the world against a low tech insurgency in africa to protect its economic interests then its carriers would obviously be perfectly survivable.

Which leads us to the discussion below about just what kind of hypothetical opponents China will be facing


Not only are these low intensity scenarios hypothetical, China also has a demonstrated history and a continually voiced desire which is at the level of strategically choosing not to conduct such operations.

Technically speaking, a high intensity conflict in westpac is also hypothetical -- but I know what you mean, that is you believe the likelihood of China having to deploy naval power at long distances for those kind of operations across the world is low.

I would say I agree with you that for the foreseeable decade China would not have to conduct such missions, but we have to remember that China's carrier programme is being developed on a scale of decades to meet needs far into the future as well, and by 2040 China may well have to start conducting these missions.




Carrier operations are also not the only way for China to take such action if it suddenly does an about face. It has LPDs with rotary air assets, destroyers with stand-off missiles, marines, special forces, and friendly-enough nations who are likely open to Chinese forces transit, short, or even long term basing for the right price.

Carriers are the only way in which China can project fixed wing airpower at long distances in a guaranteed way.
If they are pursuing carriers, that says to me that they likely seriously value that unique capability of aircraft carriers.


Carriers are uniquely capable and within that scope comes flexibility. However it also comes with higher organizational, maintenance, and deployment costs of requiring escorts and demanding unique and additional logistical support which is inflexibility at a higher level.

I think you are considering complexity of operations and cost to be equal to inflexibility.

Operationally, a carrier is inherently very flexible, but in terms of procurement, it does have the ability to tie up a significant number of resources. Different meanings.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Not necessarily for both. If China's other forces including carrier escorts are already on par with the competition, if it has a clear desire or need for action specifically with a carrier, then its carrier program would neither have a "sitting duck" nor a "white elephant" phase.

Even USN carriers could be killed with the right assets, skill, determination and a little luck, doesn't mean they are sitting ducks.

Even today, there are precious few forces in the world that could expect to be able to reliably punch through a PLAN carrier task force's defensive screen to take out the carrier, and none who can expect to do so without serious risk of taking significant losses to achieve such a kill.

As the PLAN develop and modernise, its fleet will only become more powerful, and its carriers better protected.

No one, not even the US, could go from no carriers to having a fully operational carrier fleet overnight. Crisis does not give you advanced warning, so you need to be ready at all times.

Its basically the entire principle behind all defence spending - you need to develop and maintain the capacity and forces necessary to counter and address likely crisis scenarios without needing to tell invaders to come back in a decade when we are ready.

If one were to take the view that unless you need it right this minute, its a white elephant, than all defence spending by nations not actively engaged in wars are white elephants.

Every time in history when the Chinese (or anyone really) neglected defence spending, they paid for that lapse many many times over in blood and suffering and death.

Not only are these low intensity scenarios hypothetical, China also has a demonstrated history and a continually voiced desire which is at the level of strategically choosing not to conduct such operations.

All crisis and calamities are hypothetical until they happen for real. When that happens, you are either ready for it or you are not.

As Chinese assets, interests and nationals are increasing going global, so must the PLA in order to be able to safeguard its overseas assets, interests and nationals. That is the key driving factor behind the PLAN modernisation in general, and its carrier programme specifically.

Carrier operations are also not the only way for China to take such action if it suddenly does an about face. It has LPDs with rotary air assets, destroyers with stand-off missiles, marines, special forces,

Carriers are far and away the most effective, flexible and useful tool for power project and expeditionary ops. Having one would allow the PLAN to conduct operations simply not possible without it and make all the other assets you mentioned far more effective in such a role.

and friendly-enough nations who are likely open to Chinese forces transit, short, or even long term basing for the right price.

Its never ever a sound policy to count on someone else doing you a favour.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Thinking a course of action will have ill effects is different from wishing it will have ill effects. And such a complex topic deserves careful analysis.

But in the end it's...all..about..the...program. You either have it or you don't. And most nations outside the US don't, and I mean full blown aircraft carrier program not LHA or sky ramp flat tops. And like Jeff mentioned before other than the US, China is the only one that can produce a carrier with CATOBAR or STOBAR.
 

Jeff Head

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... like Jeff mentioned before other than the US, China is the only one that can produce a carrier with CATOBAR or STOBAR.
Well, to be fair, I only indicated that China would be the only one outside of the US to produce a carrier force in those numbers.

France has a nuclear CATOBAR carrier that they built. They are capable of building both types.

India is going to have both types STOBAR and CATOBAR, and they will have built both types themselves. Probably in the same time frame as China. They already launched their 1st indigenous STOBAR carrier, a couple of years ahead of China. But India plans only a total of three...not six like we expect to see from China.

The UK is capable of building both, but will only have the two, large STOBAR carriers.

Brazil has a CATOBAR carrier...but France built it, used it for over 30 years, and then sold it to them. Brazil is talking about building a couple.

Russia could...but does not have the funds.

I imagine if they wanted to, Japan could. They have four very modern and very decent VTOL carriers...but that's not the same as large, full deck CATOBAR carriers.

The US has the money and the will and the capability to build numerous full deck carriers...and have done so.

China has the money and the will and the capability to build numerous full deck carriers...and they are doing so.
 
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asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
England is NOT assembling any carriers they are being built in Rosyth which is in the firth of the forth in Scotland

Currently it's the only dockyard that has a crane big enough to lift it's called the "Goliath"

Also the block construction is at 3 out of 7 location in Scotland as well as fitting out

By no means are they "English or England carriers"
 

Jeff Head

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England is NOT assembling any carriers they are being built in Rosyth which is in the firth of the forth in Scotland

By no means are they "English or England carriers"
Asif...they are UK carriers. For most people in the US, UK and England are synonymous.

But I will change the initial post to be UK to be sure.
 
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asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
well that's the issue why is it synonymous doesn't make any sense what so ever

It's like saying US is represented by California state alone just because it's the biggest economy

UK is made up of Northern Ireland, Wales, England and Scotland each state alone doesn't represent the former but the former does represent the latter

Anyway that was the point I am making
 
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