Blitz, I am asking you to keep your options open above all. in the case of the Jxx It was possible until proven otherwise.
Actually, in the case of J-XX, credible rumours had been building for years and the confidence of those rumours grew as it edged closer and closer to the first flight to the point that we knew a substantial amount of information about J-20 before the first pictures came out.
We were five steps ahead of everyone else, because of an ability to critically assess and disseminate rumours.
I am saying don't jump the gun.
You know, technically speaking it is still possible for the hull we see to be an LHD and for it to not be a carrier. It is also equally possible for the hull we see to not be a carrier but rather part of China's new star destroyer.
In other words, they're all technically still possible until we have final photos to 100% irrefutably prove that this thing is a carrier. But their possibilities are also equally, almost infinitesimally low.
This is because -- again -- of rumours.
We have had a consistent stream of credible rumours growing in specificity and confidence from reliable individuals from the Chinese boards which corroborated with what we are seeing at Dalian.
More importantly, it is also well established that before naval ships of such major types are built in China, we would also get rumours predicting their construction and also the shipyard they would be built at. On top of the rumours of the hull at DL being a carrier, we also have had no such rumours about an LHA or LHD being built at DL, just like how we've had no rumours about DL building a star destroyer either. But sure, technically speaking there's still a "chance" that it might be an LHA or LHD or a star destroyer, until we see the full flight deck and island there.
So technically speaking, yes we cannot be 100% sure that the hull at DL is a carrier, because despite the pictures and the consistent rumours we've gotten, we can only be 99% sure the hull at DL is a carrier, and that 1% of doubt still exists until everything is sealed and done.
But we are all practical folks here, I believe, and that 1% of doubt should be nothing more than a formality.
So by all means, we shouldn't jump the gun, but we also avoid missing the forest for the trees.