SOC is cartography analyst by profession. You left out the the rest of the quote Here is what he said .Of course nobody can be certain since PLAN doesn't have the habit of divulge their building plan. But by all indication it is military ship no doubt about it
However, the dimensions of the visible object closely match the waterline measurements of 270×35 m for Liaoning. Furthermore, Kuznetsov underwent a similar assembly process at Nikolayev shipyard in the mid-1980s; a significant portion of the lower hull was completed before work began on the flight decks and island, resulting in an incomplete hull similar to that seen at Dalian on 22 September. …
Jeff is still correct, in that it is still too soon for positive confirmation of the ship, which SOC's article also says: "While a conclusive identification of the hull as an aircraft carrier cannot be made until work is observed on the upper decks and potential flight deck, the slow pace of assembly and outline suggests a military hull under construction"
Give it another few months, and I'm sure we'll get positive ID soon enough.
Until then, I think it's worth mentioning that for every week that goes by that this ship is not launched, the chances of it being a commercial vessel drops even more. SOC is correct in the article, in suggesting that if it were a commercial ship, its pace of construction and launch would have been much faster.