PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
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The last set of pictures shows a ship in Newport News, not a Russian carrier.

The last picture is made up of four separate pictures; the two on the left I think is CVN-78, the one in the top right has russian writing so it might be a russian carrier, the one on the bottom left is a picture from DL.

I'm not sure why the person who put the pictures together had to make everything grayscale though, I know the CVN-78 picture was originally in colour.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
I'm not sure why the person who put the pictures together had to make everything grayscale though, I know the CVN-78 picture was originally in colour.

I guess to compare and contrast with the structure and lines during this construction phase.
 
I don't think the ROC Defense Ministry would get it wrong so...:

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China building two aircraft carriers: Taiwan defense ministry report
TAIPEI | BY J.R. WU

China is building two aircraft carriers that will be the same size as its sole carrier, a 60,000-tonne refurbished Soviet-era ship, according to a new Taiwanese Defence Ministry report on the capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Little is known about China's aircraft carrier program, which is a state secret, although Chinese state media have hinted new vessels are being built. The Pentagon, in a report earlier this year, said Beijing could build multiple aircraft carriers over the next 15 years.

One of the new vessels is being built in Shanghai and the other in the northeastern city of Dalian, said the Taiwanese report, which was obtained by Reuters.

It gave no estimate for when construction would be finished.

The Chinese Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. China is on a three-day national holiday to commemorate victory over Japan in World War Two.

A Taiwanese Defence Ministry spokesman said details on the carrier program came from the ministry's intelligence unit. He declined to give further details on the report, which was sent to parliament this week.

Taiwanese intelligence agencies closely monitor Chinese military developments because Beijing has never renounced the use of force to take back what it deems a renegade province.

As carriers are commissioned for service into China's navy, a command unit would be set up with "the goal to unify power and accelerate combat capabilities", the report added.

The Liaoning, a carrier bought from Ukraine in 1998 and refitted in China, has taken part in military exercises, including in the disputed South China Sea, but is not yet fully operational.

Successfully operating the Liaoning is the first step in what some military experts believe will be the deployment of Chinese-built carriers by 2020.

The Taiwanese report added that of China's 1.24 million-strong ground forces, 400,000 could be used in combat against the island.

Chinese special forces had held mock battles at the Zhurihe training base in Inner Mongolia using a full-scale model of Taiwan's presidential office and nearby government buildings and roads, the report said.

The PLA's Second Artillery Force and bombers had also practiced attacks in an area near Dingxin air force base in Gansu province that is modeled on Taichung Airport in central Taiwan, which is used for both commercial and military purposes, the report said.

China-Taiwan ties have generally improved under Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, but China has maintained that any declaration of independence or moves toward independence would prompt it to use force to take back the island.

Taiwan has been self-ruled since 1949 when Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan with his Nationalist forces after losing a civil war with Mao Zedong's Communists.

(Additional reporting by Ben Blanchard in BEIJING; Editing by Dean Yates)
 

Pmichael

Junior Member
Well, building two carriers would be quite logical. I don't think China will ever put the Liaoning in real operational service.
 

nemo

Junior Member
Well, building two carriers would be quite logical. I don't think China will ever put the Liaoning in real operational service.

It's not that simple. This implies the current build rate is around 3-4 carriers per decade. At the expected 50 years service life of the ships, you are looking at 15-20 carriers in service eventually. With the expected rate of growth of the Chines economy, such rate is sustainable.
China would not make such a large R&D expenditure just for couple of ships -- they will need to sustain purchase just to maintain the capability.
 

Pmichael

Junior Member
I'm not sure how you get to that build rate. Maybe I'm missing something.

But building two of the first domestic carriers to provide close to 100% operational readiness of at lest one carrier makes a lot of sense.
 

kroko

Senior Member
I don't think the ROC Defense Ministry would get it wrong so...:

A carrier being built in JN? I havent seen any photos yet. Also, that guy from the chinese forum hasnt talk about any carrier being built now on JN. Only next year at the earliest i think...
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
It's not that simple. This implies the current build rate is around 3-4 carriers per decade
Actually, it does not imply any such thing. If true that they are building two now (and that is a big if), all it implies is that they are building two carriers of a similar size to the Liaoning.

At the expected 50 years service life of the ships, you are looking at 15-20 carriers in service eventually.
Only if you build at a rate of 4 carriers per decade for fifty years. Which is absolutely unlikely.

As I stated, your original implication is not a given at all. It is more likely that the PLAN will build one or two Liaoning-like vessels which will give them a decent logistical train and training capability for those carriers.

If they started those carriers last year (which again is not a given yet), then they will com into service in the 2020 time frame. After they do, it is likely that they may wait a few years before building a larger, CATOBAR carrier IMHO, which they may build two of as well. Those may come into service in the late 2020s.

Only then, again IMHO, would they mover to a nuclear carrier. Once that carrier is built, and in service (now probably in the mid 2030s) the PLAN would have six carriers.

They would probably maintain these until the 2040s and then begin replacing the earlier built carriers with an improved version of their nuclear carrier...probably maintaining something like six carriers for the future.

That is a much more likely scenario than the PLAN building and maintaining 15-20 carriers.

But one thing is for sure...time will tell.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
It's not that simple. This implies the current build rate is around 3-4 carriers per decade. At the expected 50 years service life of the ships, you are looking at 15-20 carriers in service eventually. With the expected rate of growth of the Chines economy, such rate is sustainable.
China would not make such a large R&D expenditure just for couple of ships -- they will need to sustain purchase just to maintain the capability.
They don't need to keep building new carriers to justify the R&D expenditures on facilities. They need capacity for maintenance and refits too.
 
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