PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

chuck731 said:

Only the 3 Indian carriers are even nominally close to being in the league of the alleged new Chinese carrier.

Canberras are mainly amphibious vessels with at most a secondary sea control role suitable only for low or medium threat environment, the two Japanese DDHs also have at most a similar secondary sea control role, assuming the story that their decks were not capable of withstanding the exhaust from vectored nozzle of F-35 is false.

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The Australian Canberras or the 22DDH or the proposed 26DDH carriers from the Japanese, loaded with 12 F-35Bs each, and more on the 26DDH (should that ever come about), would represent a very real and credible threat to a Chinese Carrier group. The Chinese will have taken neither of those potentials lightly.

chuck731 said:

I have my doubts about how well built an Indian carrier would be and how long it would take before it is efficient and just how efficient is indian standard of efficient. Publically available photos of the bow ramp in the Vikrant clearly show precision fabrication was not available to those who made the sides of that ramp. Those metal plates look like they were hammered into shape by hand.

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Please, they look like nothing of the sort.


In addition, IMHO, you underestimate the capabilities of the Indians who have operated carriers in their navy for over 50 years. They have a much longer, and stronger tradition at this point than the Chinese in that regard. You also make the mistake of underestimate the threat of either the two STOBAR or the coming CATOBAR (and they will have both types) carrier from India with two squadrons each of Mig-29Ks.

The Indians have been training with those aircraft for some time and will have them operational on the Virkamaditya within a couple of years, well before anything like a full air wing is ready for the Liaoning.

My guess is, that with the relationships they are already establishing in the area, the will sail through those straits at some point, just to punctuate the freedom of passage.

chuck731 said:

So I think in the long run, Chinese carrier strategy will be heavily influenced by what Japan does. But it won't be very significantly influenced by what India or Australia does.

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As I said, the Chinese have been aware that all of these things were coming for a number of years, and whatever their building plan right now is, they have already taken it into account. IOW, they have already been influenced by the things we are seeing today.

For the Australians and the Japanese, they will have correctly figured that those naval air threats to their carriers will only materialize if either or both countries make F-35B purchases, which will be announced (it would be big news for either) and for which the Chinese would have an additional number of years to prepare for.

In addition, if the 26DDH carriers are built in the numbers proposed (4-8), then again, the Chinese would know about it well in advance and would modify accordingly...but again, for them, a corresponding F-35B purchase would also have to come about.

I seriously doubt, that any time in the near future (like the next 15-20 years) that the Japanese will build a CATOBAR carrier. Something very extreme would have to happen for that to be considered.

steve_rolfe said:

With the recent launch of the Indian carrier 'Vikrant'

Do members here, think this will increase the enthusiam in Beijing to accelerte their own carrier aspirations?

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There is very little doubt that it will increase the public desire for China to ramp up her own carrier production, and to be frank, I believe that is one reason that the J-20 is presently languishing, as is the J-31, the push is on for more Carriers and J-15s, and some of these other less viable projects are taking a back burner, Don't doubt me on this! brat

and Steve I think you've made an interesting and cogent observation!

Well... a carrier fleet is not just a single ship, it is a battlegroup. And it includes destroyers escort, replenishment ships, etc etc. Frankly it is useless to just keep pumping out carriers when the support system or infrastructure are not ready yet. And from what I see, there are preciously few pilots and J-15 out there yet, not enough to even fill one carrier.

Training and production of the aircrafts, ships, etc, needed time, and time that cannot be saved even if you pump in any amount of money... I think even if the people in Beijing would be anxious to get their carrier groups up, the restrictions will still push down that anxiety and cool heads will prevail. It would definitely be better to get one carrier group up, running and as many pilots to be specialised and trained as possible before the second and third carrier will come in.

So in summary, the timeline in which the Chinese will pump out their carriers will continue as per planned... Afterall, I really don't think China is in such a dire needs of that much aircraft carriers presently. And that is also why I believe the Chinese are developing very long range anti-shipping systems and more destroyers to protect their assets and interests and to deny blockage by opponents... these will do until her own carriers are up and running (fully manned, and with full fleets of escorts, aircrafts, etc).

Carriers are used for power projection. China does not need carriers for homeland defense but to contend influence with other nations.

Jeff Head said:

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In addition, IMHO, you underestimate the capabilities of the Indians who have operated carriers in their navy for over 50 years. They have a much longer, and stronger tradition at this point than the Chinese in that regard. You also make the mistake of underestimate the threat of either the two STOBAR or the coming CATOBAR (and they will have both types) carrier from India with two squadrons each of Mig-29Ks.

The Indians have been training with those aircraft for some time and will have them operational on the Virkamaditya within a couple of years, well before anything like a full air wing is ready for the Liaoning.

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I think there is a tendency to overestimate the capabilities of the Indians rather than the other way around. While it is true that the Indians have operated carriers for over 50 years, that experience is gained with Harriers. The Indians have yet to operate aircraft like the MiG-29Ks in conjunction with carriers such as the Vikramaditya. Furthermore, the Vikramaditya is still in the hands of the Russian, and meaningful trainings with the ship cannot begin until the ship gets delivered to India. So, the Indians neither has prior experience nor a head start. In my opinion, the Indians are actually behind.

As to the launch of the Vikrant in your picture, it was done for shows. Afterward, the ship will be re-docked for more constructions. Prior to this, the ship has already been launched once. India is probably the only country that launches and throws ceremonies over incomplete ships. Going by the country's track record, you will be lucky to see the ship moving under its own power before 2020.

Jeff Head said:

The Australian Canberras or the 22DDH or the proposed 26DDH carriers from the Japanese, loaded with 12 F-35Bs each, and more on the 26DDH (should that ever come about), would represent a very real and credible threat to a Chinese Carrier group. The Chinese will have taken neither of those potentials lightly.

Please, they look like nothing of the sort.

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In addition, IMHO, you underestimate the capabilities of the Indians who have operated carriers in their navy for over 50 years. They have a much longer, and stronger tradition at this point than the Chinese in that regard. You also make the mistake of underestimate the threat of either the two STOBAR or the coming CATOBAR (and they will have both types) carrier from India with two squadrons each of Mig-29Ks.

The Indians have been training with those aircraft for some time and will have them operational on the Virkamaditya within a couple of years, well before anything like a full air wing is ready for the Liaoning.

My guess is, that with the relationships they are already establishing in the area, the will sail through those straits at some point, just to punctuate the freedom of passage.

As I said, the Chinese have been aware that all of these things were coming for a number of years, and whatever their building plan right now is, they have already taken it into account. IOW, they have already been influenced by the things we are seeing today.

For the Australians and the Japanese, they will have correctly figured that those naval air threats to their carriers will only materialize if either or both countries make F-35B purchases, which will be announced (it would be big news for either) and for which the Chinese would have an additional number of years to prepare for.

In addition, if the 26DDH carriers are built in the numbers proposed (4-8), then again, the Chinese would know about it well in advance and would modify accordingly...but again, for them, a corresponding F-35B purchase would also have to come about.

I seriously doubt, that any time in the near future (like the next 15-20 years) that the Japanese will build a CATOBAR carrier. Something very extreme would have to happen for that to be considered.

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Not wish to off topic but since its started by some one. I am in the differen opinion of you ,Jeff.

In fact, I have no high regards to IN and when comes to STOBAR. IN is as news as PLAN. INS has been operating a STOVL carrier and not STOBAR for decades and I doubt their STOVL capabilites. If you are wary, their harrier wing fleet is depleting and hardly any meaningful combined ops has made.

While CV-16 Liaoning already has her carrier wing train for months with own PLAN pilot with landing and take off proven while INS Vikramaditya before going into yard for repair with landing and take off done by Russian pilot and not IN personnel. And I yet to see the IN deck crew operating procdeure in real situtation.

As for PLAN carrier deck crew , i think I do not need to say more. They are plenty of pictures and video illustrated the well train crew commanding and managing the deck.

PLAN is far ahead of IN in STOBAR operation and the new INS Vikrant which is launch only 30% completed is just another typical Indian gimmick for non professional commoner to absorb and assume IN has achieved something significant.
Radar, arrestor hook and many sub ssytem still needs to be import and intergrated which is yet to be seen and done.

Jeff Head said:

Please, they look like nothing of the sort.

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.

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They look very much that way when seen closer up. The standard of steel shaping on the side of the ramp along its entire length look to be decidedly crude.





Whether the Indians have experience operating a carrier or not, basic metal plate fabrication techniques common place in competitive commercial shipbuilding yards seem to push the envelope of expertise of their carrier builder.

This doesn't necessarily mean the resulting carrier would be no good, but it does make one wonder how many alignment issues had to be addressed during assembly, and how many more will have to be overcome during fitting out, and how realistic had each of the continuously postponed induction dates Vikrant has suffered really been.

It also suggest Indian naval construction program will be hampered by skills bottlenecks at a rather low level on the learning curve, just like other recent Indian domestic weapons development program such as Argun tank and LCA, which share a pattern of levitated ambition crippled by brutal inadequacies of basic know how, resulting in cost overruns literally 20 or more times the original budget, and delivery running 15-20 years late while still offering only a partially functioning product not up to the original promise.

no_name said:

Carriers are used for power projection. China does not need carriers for homeland defense but to contend influence with other nations.

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If you are a Nation who is primarily aimed for ground based threats and whos threats are primarily land to land yes. but for island nations particularly nations who are made up of a conglomeration of islands it's a different story.

Engineer said:

I think there is a tendency to overestimate the capabilities of the Indians rather than the other way around. While it is true that the Indians have operated carriers for over 50 years, that experience is gained with Harriers. The Indians have yet to operate aircraft like the MiG-29Ks in conjunction with carriers such as the Vikramaditya. Furthermore, the Vikramaditya is still in the hands of the Russian, and meaningful trainings with the ship cannot begin until the ship gets delivered to India. So, the Indians neither has prior experience nor a head start. In my opinion, the Indians are actually behind.

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Engineer, it all depends on hopw you look at it. Yes, the Indians do not have the Virkam yet, as the Chinese have the Liaoning. It is also true that the Indians have not flown off of the Virkam yet. However, the Indians have had their production Mig-29Ks for some time now and their pilots are training in them extensively. When the Virkam arrives this fall, the Indians will already have their entire wing of Mig-29Ks ready to go and they will immediately begin running up their pilots on the carrier and have the full air wing available to them. So, they will move ahead of where the PLAN is right now very quickly and actually are on schedule now to have a fully operational carrier with a modern airwing first.

Engineer said:

As to the launch of the Vikrant in your picture, it was done for shows. Afterward, the ship will be re-docked for more constructions. India is probably the only country that launches and throws ceremonies over incomplete ships. Going by the country's track record, you will be lucky to see the ship moving under its own power before 2020.

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I agree with much of this. It is clear that they made a political launch...but at the same time significant progress has been made and they have now secured a supply of high grade steel to finish the work and all of the machinery has now arrived. I expect in 2018 they will in fact either put her in service, or be very close to doing so...and again, their Mig-29Ks will already be there ready for it.

I am not sure that the PLAN will have their indigenous carrier ready to be delivered in service in that same time frame. But it is probably going to be close.

We shall see.

Jeff Head said:

Engineer, it all depends on hopw you look at it. Yes, the Indians do not have the Virkam yet, as the Chinese have the Liaoning. It is also true that the Indians have not flown off of the Virkam yet. However, the Indians have had their production Mig-29Ks for some time now and their pilots are training in them extensively. When the Virkam arrives this fall, the Indians will already have their entire wing of Mig-29Ks ready to go and they will immediately begin running up their pilots on the carrier and have the full air wing available to them. So, they will move ahead of where the PLAN is right now very quickly and actually are on schedule now to have a fully operational carrier with a modern airwing first.

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How do IN airwing be ready when they have not even flown on the actual carrier yet even the wing fleet on ground is ready? When they received the carrier. They need to start from zero experience operating from actual sea state onbord the carrier and train.

Or probably you suggest simulator is same as actual real out at sea?