PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

Jeff, there is no need to remind you that mods should give the exemple and not engage in OT discussion.

chuck731 said:

You only need to fall in on yourself once. China might survive, but communist rule probably won't. So It's like death. The fact that you've been sick all these years and have not died does not mean you should be unconcerned about the potential of continued ill health to lead you to an early grave.

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And yet the Chinese were in a far worse condition a few years ago, and are actually now in a phase iof improving economic health.

Yes, they have a single party system, and it is the Chinese Communist Party, with their Politburo. But economically they have wisely stepped away from most of the Maoist/Stalinist/Lennist Communist/Marxist economic models that were the doom of other communist states who continued to stubbornly embrace them until they imploded.

So the Chinese opened their markets and allowed for private ownership and market economies...with all of its incintives, while continuing to control all the regulations and opertions of the market through their central government. If one can instill a strong sense of unity, excite the people involved with their chance and initiative, then this model (which is actually a classic fascist economic model), can be very strong. It is one of the reaspns Germany was as powerful as it was even though its populations was dwarfed by the combined populations of those she set out to conquer.

Anyhow, the point is, China has gotten most of the negatives you intially posted without imploding and is improving economically over where she was a few short years ago.

Does this mean she cannot implode? Of course not. The western free markets themselves are not immune from imploding, particulalry when they turn to basing the value of their wealth on faux currency and heavy debt, and in a world-wdie decline.

But she hasn't failed, and IMHO, at this particular time, is not on the verge of failing.

Chuck731 said:

There may not have been sworn secret agents in trench coats and dark glasses operating in Ukraine and Georgia, but the west certainly laid it out that it would do these countries so and so favors if they were to eclipse their former soviet bequethed governing apperatus. It certainly offered guidance and encouragements to political elements in the country hostile to established government, and in the view of the established governments in those country, shaded news and commentaries out of those countris in a way likely to generate support against the established government.

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All of the advise, incentives, etc. in the world from the West would have been for naught had those color revolutions not come from the people themselves within those countries where they elected to plot/chart a new course for themselves from Poland to the Czech Republic and Slovakia, to the Ukraine and Georgia.

Chuck731 said:

I think the day Vietnamese communist party use armed force in dispute with China is the day Vietnamese communist party signed its own death warrant as the sole ruling party of Vietnam. Vietnamese communist party's only claim to legitimacy basically boils down to "See how the chinese communists enriched their people? We are just like the chinese communists and so can enrich you as well if you stick with us".

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Seriously? You think that if Vietnam dares use force against and militarily fights the Chinese the rulers in Vietnam are signing their own death warrant?

Why then, pray tell, are they not already dead? They have done precisely that on four seperate occasions with the PRC in the last forty years.

My point is simple on this. If there is a dispute in the South China Sea, the use of those submarines to defend their interest will not sign their death warrant. In fact, it is far more likely that their very presence will help avoid conflict any major conflict.

With those six sumbmarines, once they are crewed, in service, and active, the PLAN will have to calculate and carry on much more carefully with the Vietnamese than they have done in the past when it comes to simply gobbling up Vietnamese disputed territory in the SCS

Which is the point I am making.

Where before Type 071s and perhaps even the carrier could have sailed into those disputes with little risk...that entire calculus changes with the addition of these new, modernized Kilos. I have no doubt that the chinese planners recognize this and will proceed accordingly.

Air Force Brat said:

In addition for aircraft of the same size and weight, wake turbulence is typically not a factor ...

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In a formation take-off with a wrong set-up in crosswind conditions the second aircarft can have real trouble with wake turbulances n particular at low speed just after becoming airborne. Otherwise crosswind shifts the turbulance away - with the correct set-up.

a carrier can always produce a perfect angle of crosswind to minimize the wake-turbulance effect, so I think there is no need for sequencing.

Jeff Head said:

But she hasn't failed, and IMHO, at this particular time, is not on the verge of failing.
.

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I didn't say China is on the verge of failing. China's strength is great, but the robustness of its cohesiveness and stability is nowhere near as that of the United States, or honestly, other countries like Britain, France, or Germany. What is the probability of it seeing strong upheavels and internal turmoils in the next 50 years? 100%? No. But is it more likely to see an internal turmoil than the US, or Britain, France, Germany, etc. oh yes.

For a party that believe it ought to be in power in prepetuity, in a country that has seen countless dynasties come and go, that comparative lack of robustness must be unsettling.

Jeff Head said:

Why then, pray tell, are they not already dead? They have done precisely that on four seperate occasions with the PRC in the last forty years.

My point is simple on this. If there is a dispute in the South China Sea, the use of those submarines to defend their interest will not sign their death warrant. In fact, it is far more likely that their very presence will help avoid conflict any major conflict.

With those six sumbmarines, once they are crewed, in service, and active, the PLAN will have to calculate and carry on much more carefully with the Vietnamese than they have done in the past when it comes to simply gobbling up Vietnamese disputed territory in the SCS

Which is the point I am making.

Where before Type 071s and perhaps even the carrier could have sailed into those disputes with little risk...that entire calculus changes with the addition of these new, modernized Kilos. I have no doubt that the chinese planners recognize this and will proceed accordingly.

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Because during the previous armed conflicts the survival and legitamacy of vietnamese communist party had never depended so completely on being able to model itself on policies and approaches of the chinese communist party. Vietnames communist party needs good relations with china to be able to say "see, communists like us can be good for you, and we have special relationships with a communist party that works". If Vietnamese communist party were to endorse an antagonistic relationships with china, and China becomes the official enemy, then special relationship with china would no longer be a card to play, and everyone in vietname will see that the average communist parties around the world are averaging around 5% success rate in improving the lives of its people, and wonnder why theirs would necessarily do better and wouldn't it be better to kick them out and adopt another form of government with higher batting average.

Get back on topic! IMMEDIATELY!

bd popeye super moderator

So .... the production version of the J-15 is here ....

I think this does point to a ramping up of carrier program by Beijing. IMO China's policy makers want more tools... and they want them yesterday. I suspect we will also see Liaoning engaged in more intensive training going forward. The pace is picking up folks.

How do you know this is the true production version? There could be substantial differences between pre-series aircrafts. Finding one equipped or painted differently from the pre-series aircraft we've seen before doesn't mean it is the production model.

chuck731 said:

How do you know this is the true production version? There could be substantial differences between pre-series aircrafts. Finding one equipped or painted differently from the pre-series aircraft we've seen before doesn't mean it is the production model.

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Well, it's sporting official navy coat and has flight numbers on both the tail fin and the fuselage. So it's a good bet that these are indeed the production versions.

It is not unusual for folks to become fixated on the "power projection" strike aspect of CVBG operations. This is natural. However, a CVBG's more mundane but more ubiquitous mission (and arguably more important) is sea control. A worked up CVBG conducting nominal flight operations while passing through vital sea lanes... such as those in the ECS, SCS and the approaches to the Straits of Malacca... can have tremendous influence and impact. Moreover, in times of tension, the CVBG's movements can strain the OPFOR's resources in tracking it and having to keep contingency levels of equipment and personnel in perpetual readiness... just in case. One can easily imagine Vietnam's resources being stressed in this fashion in a time of tension while a PLAN CVBG is passing off her shores.