PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

Franklin said:

I have a question how does wake turbulence effect air launches on carriers ? How long do they have to wait between launches ? And does a catapult help to reduce the effect of that turbulence ?

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None if the carrier is underway, as the ship quickly transits through the area or wake turbulence it is broken up and left behind. In addition for aircraft of the same size and weight, wake turbulence is typically not a factor, it only becomes a factor when a smaller, lighter aircraft follow a larger, heavier aircraft in calm conditions or conditinons that allow that wake to linger. In addition the wake doesn't become a factor until the heavier aircraft actually rotates and becomes airborne. Sorry for the brief answer, I'm on my way to church. brat

kroko said:

Are you saying that PLA never sails in the Taiwan strait? and why would navigate a ship cut supply lines betwen islands?

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Almost never. Doing so was considered too provocative.

Blackstone said:

US had large footprint in the ME way before 9/11, mainly to secure US and Western energy access. Fracking technology will enable US to be energy independent, and that's a game changer. The US military will still be present in the ME, but probably less so after energy independence.


Very doubtful USN will retain same force structure after Iraq and Afghanistan, because we're downsizing our military, while at the same time re-balancing to Asia. There's simply not enough ships, planes, and personnel to do both.


I did mention 2030, right? Assuming China continues her path to the world's largest economy, and assuming she doesn't provide a whole lot more public goods for the global commons, she will have the money, resource, logistics, and know-how to have multiple CBGs, some of which could be stationed in the South China Sea.



PLAN base-to-come in the Seychells is only the beginning of more global political and military engagements in the future.

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the Achilles heel for the Chinese supremacy is her population the latest projections show a PRC population demographics in 2030 identical to todays Japan; that's not good. And even with the loosened version of population control made by the CCP would not change that. A population decline is a economic development decline. Political, economic and military power are are all related and if one falters' the others do to. So the BIG question is can the find a way to keep even second biggest economy with a population nightmare? But that's another topic.

Now then as I see it for the PLAN there are three mission critical Areas of operation. The east China sea, the south china sea, and the Indian ocean. The east China sea and the Indian ocean are the most difficult for China. In the ECS she has three nations that maintain powerful naval forces South Korea, Japan, and the USA. The ECS is loaded with ASW assets including modern aircraft, anti submarine warning networks, and hunter killers submarines from four nations. The ECS is also home to ASMs, aircraft both manned and unmanned capable of tracking and sinking even a carrier. But for the PRC Taiwan is a must have. Like Gollum from the lord of the rings The CCP must have the precious. Historically everytime a Chinese ruling Dynasty has fallen the first sign of weakness was a break away province. For the PRC that means Taiwan has delegitimise them from day one. The Taiwanese state is the Peoples republic of China's goal, aim, and target. It proves the CCP is a true new state and not just the latest version of the empire.
the ECS has critical strategic importance as its opening is a highway right to the cash register of the Chinese ports.
The Indian ocean is outside the PRCs geographic area of reach this means the PRC would have to establish a out of boarders naval base. Likely in Pakistan, an additional possibility in Iran? And a critical need in Africa.
The Indian Ocean has Two key players who are equipped to make the PLAN have a hard time. The USA And the modernizing India. Guam offers the US a bomber and fighter base. She operates carriers in the Indian ocean regularly and maintains ASW assets. The Indian navy now has a growing carrier force of its own and shows signs of a increasing naval interest. Increasingly modern ASW assets and submarine capacity. As well eventually will come escorts and power potential on par.
A trend the PLA admirals are going to need aspirin for. The key feature for the PRC? Africa. The Indian ocean gives PRC shipping direct access to its most critical economic development programs in Africa. Programs that offer oil to one of the worlds top oil importers, raw materials for Chinese factories and key exports. China exports more to African nations then the US and Europe combined. A blockade of or loss of freedom to navigate the Indian ocean would be a massive blow to China.

The south China sea is relatively easy there is only really the US to deal the other nations are comparative lightweights. The US can still bring the hurt no doubt and will continue to be a major player in influence and military might. For the PLAN the key for the SCS is access. Without major ASW the PLAN subs have virtually open play, for surface ships its a key transmission point from home to the Indian ocean.

Those are the three most important places for the PLAN as I see it. Three AOR for PRC carriers. That would mean a number as low as three as high as need be but I figure four would do optimally three on station and one rotating for refit and surge. Mission needs fighters, and attackers particularly attackers that can do ASW and ground strike. Logistics and AEW types also a must as the PRC. Antipiracy operations are in a way a roadmap for PLAN Mission needs in the Indian ocean. And in the radio interview I posted yesterday in the antipiracy thread. I think it was a important point to take when Admiral Terry McKnight commented that the PLAN admiral attached to those operations "kept asking about Logistics". The PLAN has to keep and maintain their bullets and beans. Water, food, oil, Fuel, Engines, spare parts, and Mail are critical factors for the emerging PLAN.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Now then as I see it for the PLAN there are three mission critical Areas of operation. The east China sea, the south china sea, and the Indian ocean.

The east China sea and the Indian ocean are the most difficult for China. In the ECS she has three nations that maintain powerful naval forces South Korea, Japan, and the USA. The ECS is loaded with ASW assets including modern aircraft, anti submarine warning networks, and hunter killers submarines from four nations.

The ECS is also home to ASMs, aircraft both manned and unmanned capable of tracking and sinking even a carrier. But for the PRC Taiwan is a must have. Like Gollum from the lord of the rings The CCP must have the precious. Historically everytime a Chinese ruling Dynasty has fallen the first sign of weakness was a break away province. For the PRC that means Taiwan has delegitimise them from day one. The Taiwanese state is the Peoples republic of China's goal, aim, and target. It proves the CCP is a true new state and not just the latest version of the empire.

the ECS has critical strategic importance as its opening is a highway right to the cash register of the Chinese ports.

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I believe the emphasis on Taiwan in terms of comparisons to older dynasties is overplayed. China is recognized now as a world power...with or without Taiwan. Effectually, Taiwan has been operating independently for over 50 years and everyone knows it.

Now, keeping them from declaring and becoming "officially" independent is a major goal, and a red line for China. But this does not change the fact that she virtually is in any case.

The biggest issue I see for the PLAN in the ECS is direct access to the Pacific Ocean blue water...and the need to develop enough power to have a chance to keep herself from being isolated as a result of those others power's naval might so close abreast of her. it will take significant naval and air power to thwart that.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

The Indian ocean is outside the PRCs geographic area of reach this means the PRC would have to establish a out of boarders naval base. Likely in Pakistan, an additional possibility in Iran? And a critical need in Africa.

The Indian Ocean has Two key players who are equipped to make the PLAN have a hard time. The USA And the modernizing India. Guam offers the US a bomber and fighter base. She operates carriers in the Indian ocean regularly and maintains ASW assets. The Indian navy now has a growing carrier force of its own and shows signs of a increasing naval interest. Increasingly modern ASW assets and submarine capacity. As well eventually will come escorts and power potential on par.

A trend the PLA admirals are going to need aspirin for. The key feature for the PRC? Africa. The Indian ocean gives PRC shipping direct access to its most critical economic development programs in Africa. Programs that offer oil to one of the worlds top oil importers, raw materials for Chinese factories and key exports. China exports more to African nations then the US and Europe combined. A blockade of or loss of freedom to navigate the Indian ocean would be a massive blow to China.

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I agree with this...but did you mean Diego Garcia instead of Guam here?

TerraN_EmpirE said:

The south China sea is relatively easy there is only really the US to deal the other nations are comparative lightweights. The US can still bring the hurt no doubt and will continue to be a major player in influence and military might. For the PLAN the key for the SCS is access. Without major ASW the PLAN subs have virtually open play, for surface ships its a key transmission point from home to the Indian ocean.

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I think the Vietnamese with their brand new Kilos throw a wrench into these works. With those vessels they have the ability to influence surface and sub surface actions far outweighing their other influences and capabilities.

And depending on how far potential opposition arises from, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia also have capabilities that could come into play...depending on which side they were aligned with...if at all.

Jeff Head said:

I believe the emphasis on Taiwan in terms of comparisons to older dynasties is overplayed. China is recognized now as a world power...with or without Taiwan. Effectually, Taiwan has been operating independently for over 50 years and everyone knows it.

Now, keeping them from declaring and becoming "officially" independent is a major goal, and a red line for China. But this does not change the fact that she virtually is in any case.

The biggest issue I see for the PLAN in the ECS is direct access to the Pacific Ocean blue water...and the need to develop enough power to have a chance to keep herself from being isolated as a result of those others power's naval might so close abreast of her. it will take significant naval and air power to thwart that.

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This is why reunification is so critical from the Chinese strategic standpoint on top of the sociopolitical reasons (which are in themselves very strongly grounded (Mongolia and Vietnam are good examples why) although off-topic), for a Chinese pacific fleet stationed on Taiwan's east coast greatly improves countermeasures against hostile parties attempting to cut Chinese pacific access.

I think the Vietnamese with their brand new Kilos throw a wrench into these works. With those vessels they have the ability to influence surface and sub surface actions far outweighing their other influences and capabilities.

And depending on how far potential opposition arises from, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia also have capabilities that could come into play...depending on which side they were aligned with...if at all.

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Vietnam would be more of a problem if they were further away, but being neighbors also means that counteractions against Vietnamese logistics is far easier too, so not so cut and dried situation. As for Malaysia and Indonesia, their strategic situation more favors good relations with China than hostile, particularly with Australia-Indonesia issues.

Franklin said:

I have a question how does wake turbulence effect air launches on carriers ? How long do they have to wait between launches ? And does a catapult help to reduce the effect of that turbulence ?

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To add to my earlier answer about wake turbulence I would add that on land the wake turbulence of a heavy aircraft may roll laterally across an airport down wind of the departure runway, the turbulence rolls off the wing tip like a miniature tornado on each side of the aircraft. That turbulence is increased by the application of slats or flaps as the more lift is being created, the size and strength of the vortex increases.

If you are following a heavy on arrival, ATC will likely issue Wake Turbulence advisory, as long as you are above the heavy, you're good, as his wake is descending at 300 to 500 fpm, if you remain above and make a steeper approach to touch down beyond his touchdown point you are good. If you are below him and less than 2 min behind, or if your touch down point is prior to his, you could be putting your-self and your aircraft at risk....

So on departure from the carrier, no wake turbulence, now if you are on approach the wake of the carrier itself passing through the air ahead of you can cause turbulence, technically wake turbulence, but not the heavy rotation you would experience behind a heavier departing aircraft, but you still must be prepared to "fly" your aircraft all the way to the deck, and prepare for a "bolter" if you miss the wires on approach. brat

Air Force Brat said:

To add to my earlier answer about wake turbulence I would add that on land the wake turbulence of a heavy aircraft may roll laterally across an airport down wind of the departure runway, the turbulence rolls off the wing tip like a miniature tornado on each side of the aircraft. That turbulence is increased by the application of slats or flaps as the more lift is being created, the size and strength of the vortex increases.

If you are following a heavy on arrival, ATC will likely issue Wake Turbulence advisory, as long as you are above the heavy, you're good, as his wake is descending at 300 to 500 fpm, if you remain above and make a steeper approach to touch down beyond his touchdown point you are good. If you are below him and less than 2 min behind, or if your touch down point is prior to his, you could be putting your-self and your aircraft at risk....

So on departure from the carrier, no wake turbulence, now if you are on approach the wake of the carrier itself passing through the air ahead of you can cause turbulence, technically wake turbulence, but not the heavy rotation you would experience behind a heavier departing aircraft, but you still must be prepared to "fly" your aircraft all the way to the deck, and prepare for a "bolter" if you miss the wires on approach. brat

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Thanks!

Now we know that the J-15 has been produced and are being tested as we speak. Hopefully we will see an air wing on the Liaoning soon.

Jeff Head said:

I believe the emphasis on Taiwan in terms of comparisons to older dynasties is overplayed. China is recognized now as a world power...with or without Taiwan. Effectually, Taiwan has been operating independently for over 50 years and everyone knows it..

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I don't think it is overplayed. China has been more or less the same evolving culture with a continuout "deep" governance tradition operating in more or less the same piece of territory for over 3000 years. As a result they have both a lot of baggage to their world view, but also a lot of historic analogs and precedences to look to in finding hints of long term underlying cycles and patterns beneath the superficial veneer of current events. So where as outside observer might say China is powerful now and more influential relative to the rest of the world then she had been in over 300 years, China might see - based on historic precedents - any power and influence a nation might have that hasn't reclaimed what it considers its own territory in a place with great strategic value as infact subtlely but profoundly still hobbled by a deeper web of strategic checks and indirect influences, and therefore that nation is really weaker than any statistic and outward appearence might suggest.

I think most chinese are of the opinion that while China has become richer and amassed much of the arsenals of fancy technological tools of military power which they once so admired in the hands of other powers, China is in fact still at a very deep level weaker than she appears. Part of that reason is she is not yet even in firm and unshakeable control of all the territory that she ought to have control over and project her power from. She looks at America, and sees no where in America could China create internal trouble by stirring up ethnic tension. She looks at herself and see in nearly a third of her own territory potential for foreign media and pressure groups to create internal troubles by stirring up ethnic tension. She looks at America, and see no where is American access to the world hobbled by a foreign dominated island chain across lines of communication out of her ports. She looks at herself and sees each and over one of her ports potentially blocked by unfriendly islands. She looks at America, and sees no matter how disfunctional the government is, the system of governance is stable and secure for foreseeable future. She looks at herself, and sees the her system of governance as shaky and supported only by the untenable pillar of perpetual rapid economic growth. If the growth is hobbled for even 5 years, the whole ediface of China as a world power with strong purposeful central authority might reveal itself to be a house of cards falling in on itself. She indulge in the outward trappings of world power, but she is haunted by a feeling of weakness in her bones.

Jeff Head said:

Now, keeping them from declaring and becoming "officially" independent is a major goal, and a red line for China. But this does not change the fact that she virtually is in any case...

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Of course. But nation with superpower ambitions never lets that fact that a piece of territory it considers critical to its increased power to have been de facto independent stand in the way of claiming that piece of territory should belong to it, or has belonged to it since time immemorial, or is - by whatever standard is necessary to effect the desired outcome - most rightfully its.

Jeff Head said:

I think the Vietnamese with their brand new Kilos throw a wrench into these works. With those vessels they have the ability to influence surface and sub surface actions far outweighing their other influences and capabilities.

And depending on how far potential opposition arises from, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia also have capabilities that could come into play...depending on which side they were aligned with...if at all.

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I don't think so. Chinese power might seem intimidating to vietnamese nationalism and threatening to outlying Vietnemese territory, but Chinese power is also the best assurance that Vietnam won't see a "color revolution" sponsored from the west, and the ruling Vietnamese communist party would stay in power. If China gives Vietnam enough leeway so vietnamese nationalism isn't incensed enough to rise up and topple the vietnamese communist party, then vietnamese communist party will not stand in the way of any Chinese territorial and power projection ambitions.

chuck731 said:

I don't think it is overplayed. China might see - based on historic precedents - any power and influence a nation might have that hasn't reclaimed what it considers its own territory in a place with great strategic value as infact subtlely but profoundly still hobbled by a deeper web of strategic checks and indirect influences, and therefore that nation is really weaker than any statistic and outward appearence might suggest.

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China "might see." I think the current leaders of the PRC, from the individual leaders through the entirety of the Politburo down to their military leaders and service chiefs are not so hobbled.

So we disagree.

chuck731 said:

...a third of her own territory potential for foreign media and pressure groups to create internal troubles by stirring up ethnic tension. ...each and over one of her ports potentially blocked by unfriendly islands. ... her system of governance as shaky and supported only by the untenable pillar of perpetual rapid economic growth.

If the growth is hobbled for even 5 years, the whole ediface of China as a world power with strong purposeful central authority might reveal itself to be a house of cards falling in on itself.

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And yet China has had those exact same difficulties for decades...and her growth was "stunted" for much of that time...and yet she did not come undone and fall in on herself.

chuck731 said:

I don't think so. Chinese power might seem intimidating to vietnamese nationalism and threatening to outlying Vietnemese territory, but Chinese power is also the best assurance that Vietnam won't see a "color revolution" sponsored from the west, and the ruling Vietnamese communist party would stay in power.

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What happened in Poland, the Ukraine, Georgia, etc. was not "sponsored" by the west in the sense that US or Western operatives were inside those countries clamoring for revolution. Those color revolutions came from within, and were a part of the larger revolution that shook the Soviet Union loose of those nations.

Vietnam, or China, or any of those nations will never have a "color" revolution because of US sponsored interference. But it may occur from the people themselves. Only time will tell on that.

We did not expect what took place in the USSR...and even the wildest positive forecasts of their economic troubles did not foretell the rapidity with which they came down.

As to Vietnam's ability to use its submarines in the disputes...they can, and they will.

Those subs will have a diproportionate influence on tactical placement of vessels and any "invasions," and "takings," like what has occurred between them and China in the SCS twice in the last 30+ years. On those occassions, even though Vietnam tried to contest what the PLAN was doing, they had no platform and no capability to do so and those contests were doomed to turn out exactly as they did.

With these new Kilo subs, that is not a given. They are in a position, with a platform, to hurt the PLAN (or nay other power attempting to simply gooble up the disputed claims), and that will have an impact on decision making.

Jeff Head said:

And yet China has had those exact same difficulties for decades...and her growth was "stunted" for much of that time...and yet she did not come undone and fall in on herself. .

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You only need to fall in on yourself once. China might survive, but communist rule probably won't. So It's like death. The fact that you've been sick all these years and have not died does not mean you should be unconcerned about the potential of continued ill health to lead you to an early grave.

Jeff Head said:

What happened in Poland, the Ukraine, Georgia, etc. was not "sponsored" by the west in the sense that US or Western operatives were inside those countries clamoring for revolution. Those color revolutions came from within, and were a part of the larger revolution that shook the Soviet Union loose of those nations.

Vietnam, or China, or any of those nations will never have a "color" revolution because of US sponsored interference. But it may occur from the people themselves. Only time will tell on that..

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There may not have been sworn secret agents in trench coats and dark glasses operating in Ukraine and Georgia, but the west certainly laid it out that it would do these countries so and so favors if they were to eclipse their former soviet bequethed governing apperatus. It certainly offered guidance and encouragements to political elements in the country hostile to established government, and in the view of the established governments in those country, shaded news and commentaries out of those countris in a way likely to generate support against the established government.

Jeff Head said:

We did not expect what took place in the USSR...and even the wildest positive forecasts of their economic troubles did not foretell the rapidity with which they came down...

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The role of Gorbachev's unique deficiencies in competence and personality, and the weakness of the higher soviet government echelon in checks and balances against the failure of the chief executive, gets the short thrift in western, usually ideologically shadedm narratives of why and exactly how the Soviet Union collapsed. But narratives by subsequent Russian historians definitely put much more weight on technical causes than on some ovewhelming public sentiments.

Jeff Head said:

As to Vietnam's ability to use its submarines in the disputes...they can, and they will.

Those subs will have a diproportionate influence on tactical placement of vessels and any "invasions," and "takings," like what has occurred between them and China in the SCS twice in the last 30+ years. On those occassions, even though Vietnam tried to contest what the PLAN was doing, they had no platform and no capability to do so and those contests were doomed to turn out exactly as they did.

With these new Kilo subs, that is not a given. They are in a position, with a platform, to hurt the PLAN (or nay other power attempting to simply gooble up the disputed claims), and that will have an impact on decision making.

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I think the day Vietnamese communist party use armed force in dispute with China is the day Vietnamese communist party signed its own death warrant as the sole ruling party of Vietnam. Vietnamese communist party's only claim to legitimacy basically boils down to "See how the chinese communists enriched their people? We are just like the chinese communists and so can enrich you as well if you stick with us". In current world situation, If vietnam is forced to pursue an overtly hostile policy to China, Vietnames would quickly find Vietnam's own communist party too bothersome to keep as well.