PLAN 2nd & 3rd Aircraft Carrier wager & planning

Jeff my friend, how many carriers have the Chinese supposed started building that turned into museum, tankers and other things? Don't count your carrier before the deck is laid. For all we know it's a LHD or a new freighter or a luxury yacht for Xi. I am standing by my opinion on this that the PLA has bot yet really shown the confidence in CV16 and its air wing to believe that they are ready to double down.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Jeff my friend, how many carriers have the Chinese supposed started building that turned into museum, tankers and other things? Don't count your carrier before the deck is laid. For all we know it's a LHD or a new freighter or a luxury yacht for Xi. I am standing by my opinion on this that the PLA has bot yet really shown the confidence in CV16 and its air wing to believe that they are ready to double down.

Click to expand...

I'd just like to point out that predictions of Chinese carrier production are being made on the basis of continuous nonchanging rumours deemed to be relatively reliable (for instance the notion that DL is building the first indigenous CV), official leaks occasionally (such as the SCMP article describing the brief "leak"), and finally, the arrival of pictures which coincides and agrees with the aforementioned two factors.

Considering all those factors, there have been actually no true predictions of carriers under production -- they were usually made using only one of those factors, without extensive support of other rumours... or they were from news sites without much basis of reliability or credibility.

Here on SDF in the late 2000s we made a lot of personal predictions around PLAN carrier production but they were almost all down to our own fancy rather than listening to what was coming out of the Chinese PLA watching boards.

We'll know within a year or two if Dalian's ship is a carrier.

However I am very confident that Dalian's modules that it is building is not an LHD. The LHD will likely go to HD.

I am not a betting man so I am staying on the side lines on this, but you could make some educated guess if you know how often, how long and how many times the Liaoning has been out for training since she is the only training ship for PLAN carrier squadron and flight deck crew.
You'll probably need at least four to five tours final training on the open sea lasting three to five months before you could consider the personnel ready. The first crew on training would probably become instructors so you'll need to train at least four ~ five deck crew shifts to operate two carriers on a continuous basis. The crew for navigation, communication and maintenance could be moved from other ships but deck crew and fixed wing pilots are something unique on a carrier where you can't really obtain training on other ships.
If there are not enough crew to operate the ship then it would be a waste of money to construct one.

SamuraiBlue said:

I am not a betting man so I am staying on the side lines on this, but you could make some educated guess if you know how often, how long and how many times the Liaoning has been out for training since she is the only training ship for PLAN carrier squadron and flight deck crew.
You'll probably need at least four to five tours final training on the open sea lasting three to five months before you could consider the personnel ready. The first crew on training would probably become instructors so you'll need to train at least four ~ five deck crew shifts to operate two carriers on a continuous basis. The crew for navigation, communication and maintenance could be moved from other ships but deck crew and fixed wing pilots are something unique on a carrier where you can't really obtain training on other ships.
If there are not enough crew to operate the ship then it would be a waste of money to construct one.

Click to expand...

What you're estimating is present crew readiness for Liaoning. That may have little to no relation to when another carrier is expected.

For instance, if, for the purposes of discussion, the modules we're seeing at Dalian's drydock are for the first indigenous carrier, then it could conceivably be launched by 2017 at the earliest, and enter service around 2020. By that time the Liaoning's crew should be more than competent with their vessel and there may well be more than enough crew as well to allow experienced crew to transition onto the newly commissioned 001A to work up a new crew green to carrier operations.

The Chinese navy may not have the luxury of waiting for enough carrier experienced crew to fill multiple carriers immediately as they enter service, so what will likely happen is a lag time as the second carrier enters service to when it actually reaches IOC and FOC. There will likely be a lag time for the third carrier when it enters service as well but will likely reduce (in terms of general carrier experience) as more and more personnel become experienced with carrier operations and a reservoir of knowledge and doctrine is built up.

What I'm describing is this (the dates I use are just pulled out of a hat -- 001A and 002 will likely enter service later than what I list):

• Liaoning entered service in late 2012. It may take five years until it becomes fully operational (2017) due to a lack of previous experience and knowledge
• 001A might enter service in 2020. But it might only take three and a half years until it becomes fully operational as there is an experienced crew from Liaoning and three years of previous relatively stable doctrine and training to work off.
• 002 might enter service, say in 2023. But it might take only two years until it is full operational as even more experienced crew and knowledge is built up.

Etc.

I understand that we are here interested in ships similar to and possibly larger than Liapning. So if JN builds not a LHD but a LHA, with ski ramp and arrester gear to operate attack aircraft and/or UCAV's besides helicopters, and of the size of CdG, we will call it a LHA and not a CV and it will not count for this bet.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Jeff my friend, how many carriers have the Chinese supposed started building that turned into museum, tankers and other things? Don't count your carrier before the deck is laid. For all we know it's a LHD or a new freighter or a luxury yacht for Xi. I am standing by my opinion on this that the PLA has bot yet really shown the confidence in CV16 and its air wing to believe that they are ready to double down.

Click to expand...

I have not personally indicated that it is a carrier.

In fact, in the numerous discussions about that particular picture, I have said that it is too soon to say.

Having said that, given the location and given the indications regarding the same, both from industrial sources, government officials, and others in China...I personally believe it is more likely than not that they have started.

Time will tell.

Bltizo

I will apologize if my explanation was insufficient.
First of all to actually operate a combat ready aircraft carrier you'll need deck crew 24/7 that is why more then three crew shift ready.
Another point is once ready you'll transfer 2/3 of the crew and pilots from the Liaoning to the new carrier so the carrier becomes operation 80~90% on first day even with 1/3 of the crew fresh out from academy.
The remaining 1/3 will be training another 2/3 from the academy on the Liaoning seasoning them for the third carrier.
This way personnel training will not become an issue right after commission. The down side is it will take considerable time to ready the first crew preparing them to for the first day.
Hardware is relatively easy to construct but it takes much more time to train and prepare and season the crew to become combat ready and it can only be done with trained staff to provide OJT to the new crew.

delft

If you read my post considering plasma actuator you'll realize that STOL will become much easier to perform and JSDF fighters of the future may not require the immense speed in landing on a future carrier since the wing will provide more lift at a larger attack wing angle with this technology.
Take off will also benefit and with the present maglev technology Japan possesses so it will not be at all difficult for Japan to construct a full blown CATBAR aircarft carrier from scratch.

@samurai blue

My statement was in the direction that the PLAN would likely accept a delay in full operational readiness for new carriers once they are commissioned. I'd be surprised if PLAN desired anything like 80-90% readiness on new carriers the moment they were commissioned. I imagine they would be happy with that kind of readiness a few years after a new carrier is commissioned.

It goes without saying that constructing the hardware is only half the story of attaining a capability. I think most people here recognise it as does the chinese navy.

The issue is that I don't think the PLAN are seeking to have enough fully experienced crew for two carriers before actually commissioning their second carrier. I think for PLAN it does make some sense for completed ships to wait for crews to become fully experienced.

I expect that the PLAN will have worked the planning out according to their own time table.

I also expect, given the huge outpouring of support and national excitement that China had with its first carrier, that they will have no shortage of people signing up for that duty.

If they know the carrier is coming, it is simply a matter of doing the recruiting drives necessary at the right times to get and keep them manned. I expect the Chinese understand this and will make the appropriate arrangements for their own planning and scheduling.

t2contra said:

Wow, the wager gets serious that it deserves another thread. LOL.

Click to expand...

Hummmh? really, a whole nother thread?? this must be serious tom-katting around LOL? so , prior to Pres Xi, I would have bet my last Franklin, and won, that there would be a second carrier building before now, and Liaoning would have been the "soup de-jour". I would say the carrier is on hold for a season, and the Brat's predicted economic tsunami has rolled ashore on the mainland, that's the main reason for all the secrecy, and clamping the lid on all the kool stuff. I am afraid the carrier is in limbo at present, I'm not certain they have a course set?? carrier or no carrier, now I would say that the "undersea-botten" have gained the upper hand, and that J-20 is also rolled to the head of the class??