PLAN 2nd & 3rd Aircraft Carrier wager & planning

kwaigonegin said:

I want to throw in a monkey wrench... Are you all betting on the timeline that these carriers be another liaoning or liaoning's-like or are we talking 80k-100k ton flat deck CVs i.e supercarries?

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No...nothing said about what type of fixed wing carriers.

The two new carriers can be either STOBAR or CATOBAR.

There was no distinction and is no distinction in this wager.

So Kwaig...you going to take a side in this?

Two new carriers, one now, one in a few years? or no new carries in that time frame?

Popeye...where do you fall?

Heck while we are at it...

Jura? Deino? Mirage? Brat? Tphuang? Etc.?

Come on guys, let's see who weighs in where?

Bltizo said:

Personally I expect 001A from DL to have the same STOBAR configuration as Liaoning and maybe only slightly larger, and I expect 002 to be CATOBAR possibly with 80k+ displacement
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Blackstone said:

My guess is CV17 will have waist cats, and it's even money if it will sport a ski ramp. If no ramp, then cats will likely be same positions as the ex-USS Forrestal.

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kwaigonegin said:

I'm of the same mindset as well. CV 17 let's call it improved liaoning and CV 18 will probably be similar to Kitty Hawk.
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It'd be dream come true for me to see a Chinese LHD equivalent to the Wasp/Tarawa/America. Even a smaller one like the export models we have seen pictures of would be OK though it wouldn't make sense to me. Cherry and cream on top would be if it comes out before a 2nd or even a 3rd CV. However I am thinking it is a long shot since they started building more 071 LPD's yet the tests of Z-10 over water give me hope.

My own feeling remains that the PLAN will build there first LHD/LHA concurrently with the next carrier, which I believe is already building.

I believe the next carrier will be a STOBAR carrier with no catapults that will make improvements on the Liaoning.

I believe we are seeing some of the improvements reflected in the mock-up/research facility in Wuhan with the modified radars on the island. I believe other improvements will be made in enlarging the hanger, making the island footprint smaller, and in other areas not so easily seen.

I believe the 3rd carrier may be a hybrid with both Cats (at the waist), but IMHO, more likely a pure CATOBAR carrier that is conventionally powered. That third one is the one I think that will have started building in the 2020 time frame.

Time will tell. Right now its all us trying to figure out the PLAN's game plan. But, as I say, if the 2nd carrier has started building, it will become evident over the enxt 12 months or so.

We should consider the ability to build, by DL and/or JN, and to induct, by PLAN.
Liaoning was built in Nikolaev in three years, from keel laying to floating out. Investment at DL must have considered a similar speed in building. So if the next one is building the one after that will be building in three years time. Outfitting will be taking about the same time. I bet that is happening, resp. will happen. So this one was started in end 2014 and the next ones ( take some extra time because this is the first one ) 2018, 2021 &c.
If PLAN is in a tremendous hurry to build flattops then a second production facility at JN can also produce one every three years. Scrap the first one because I don't believe PLAN can have built the organisation to induct one flattop every year and a halve, but I would think PLAN won't be in such a hurry at all. I think JN will be building LHD's of say 40k and possibly with ski ramp for attack aircraft and/or UCAV's.
BTW some of us must have a good idea of the size of the building dock at DL and of the maximum size of flattop that can be built in it. That too will have been a consideration when that facility was designed about ten years ago.

I have hung back on this but it seems to me that the PLAN is in no hurry for there carrier program. They may have more coming but I am not thinking it will appear before 2020.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

I have hung back on this but it seems to me that the PLAN is in no hurry for there carrier program. They may have more coming but I am not thinking it will appear before 2020.

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It seems to me that the investments in the flattop complex are too large to be just to support only Liaoning until 2020. I see this supported by the modifications on the dry land flattop.

the Ground site and continued inland training sure but simulating will only get you so far you need a active deck.
there current operations tempo seems way to slow to support the formation of full squadrons at this rate to form the numbers of pilots to start mission operational carrier wing before 2019 and you need that to expand beyond a single flat top before 2020.
all indications are still single digit numbers of fighters on the CV16. carrier landings are a perishable skill set having a carrier running sorties gives the flight crews real hard experience, you want that real hard experience for your first carrier squadron so they can spin off the second and the Third And with those spin offs you can then create a second carrier wing. the ship it's self is fine and dandy but with out the air wing it's the "Thai Royal Yacht". The PLANAF has the Birds they need the Pilots to get the Pilots they need CV16 in the SCS running Sorties not parked in port being showed off to delegates.

Well, if we are to go by Henri's assessments, the contract for the LHD has not yet been signed, and might be by 2016 at the latest.

Wait a second does this wager consider Flat top LHDs under Carrier? I consider it a Assault ship because a LHD does not require fixed wing, it can have them but does not need them. My statement is in regards to a fixed wing launching CV

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Wait a second does this wager consider Flat top LHDs under Carrier? My statement is in regards to a fixed wing launching CV

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Nope. We are talking fixed wing CVs here.

Do you want your name under PanAsian's prediction then?