Yeah, I think there is a lot of projecting the IJN and the USN onto the PLAN in this thread. Going beyond the 1st island chain offensively just doesn't make sense for the PRC unless mainland China has been attacked and it's retaliation in kind or MAD. I do see the PLA obliterating 1st island chain bases from which hostile direct action is being taken against it, even to the extent of liberating the Ryukyus which would be so much more to their advantage than attacking any faraway locale.
PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC
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They will need to also flatten US military base in Guam if they want to win a prolonged war. If you are PLA, it's important for you to use your one major advantage to deprive US military of land bases where they can utilize their air power. It would be a huge problem for China if their victory depends solely on their CSGs beating USN CSGs.
No.
Whatever happened to Patchwork Chimera on reddit by the way? One day his account suddenly got banned for I don't know what reason. I don't know if you still keep in touch with him, but I quite liked his posts and he seemed to be one of the few guys who actually knows what he's talking about. It's a shame he got banned, does he post on here?
The Type 094 only became viable as a second strike platform with the JL-2A missile. For whatever reason a lot of people think the missile it carries is the JL-2 with the range specs on the Wiki i.e. 7200km which isn't enough to hit the US mainland from China. I doubt it. Since it seems to be basically a naval DF-31. So it probably got the same range extension as the DF-31A with the JL-2A. 11200km.
Being a WW2 naval fan myself, I just couldn't find peace if I didn't finish my elaboration. So please allow me to.
Judging from the plan regarding the "Guam bait from Taiwan", here's the summary:
| Operation MI | Hypothetical War of Reunification on Taiwan |
| Midway Island (main objective for the IJN) | Taiwan (main objective for the PLA) |
| Western Aleutians (side objective for the IJN) | Guam (side objective for the PLA) |
| Taking Western Aleutians and Midway to lure USN out of Pearl | Taking Guam to lure USN from Taiwan |
| IJN would destroy USN carriers near Midway | PLA would destroy USN forces near Guam |
| Result: Failure | Result: ? |
The way I see it, there are several key issues with such plans:
1. In June 1942, Imperial Japan controled literally half of the Pacific Ocean. From the Kuril Islands in the north, all the way to New Guinea and the Solomon Islands in the south.
Apart from that Doolittle Raid where the USN carriers got somewhat lucky, if the USN warships dared to venture straight into the vast regions under Imperial Japan control at that time, those IJN warships and IJAAF warplanes stationed around those islands that formed the "Outer and Inner Defense Rings of Japan" would have intercepted and sank them.
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China only has true superiority control over the Bohai Sea, plus both the East and South China Seas. Other than that, the operational capability of the PLA in general is practically locked inside and around the First Island Chain plus Taiwan.2. Right before and at the start of the Battle of Midway, the IJN is at its zenith - They outnumbered and outgunned the USN and her allied navies across the whole Pacific, despite just suffering setback at the Battle of Coral Sea.
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For the worst case scenario, China is expected to face the combined strength of the US+Japan+South Korea+Australia+UK for the hypothetical War of Reunification on Taiwan. Even with home front numerical advantage, such combination would still be capable of exerting a lot of pressure on the PLA.The Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet in the Sea of Japan could only do so much as to distract and keep the JMSDF, ROKN and some parts of the USN busy in the Sea of Japan. I don't see it being viable for them to send a large task force down south to help the PLA either, unless a full-blown war occurs between Russia vs US and/or her allies.
3. Had the IJN done a better job in safeguarding and securing their military communications, or that the US military intelligence unit at Hawaii got unlucky, the IJN could very well have the element of surprise against the USN. And from then on, it would be the USN hurriedly sending their carriers out of Pearl to defend Midway, and getting sunk in the process - just as Yamamoto had planned.
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The spy satellites of the US military would immediately understand what's going on as soon as they see PLAN warships sailing directly towards Guam. There is no element of surprise that the PLAN could muster.And remember, apart from Guam itself and Hawaii, the USN warships can also sail from Yokosuka in the north and from Sydney in the south to conduct pincer attack/interception on the PLAN warships that are heading for Guam.
4. In conjunction to/after landing on and taking Midway, the IJN can reliably destroy any and all USN warships that were sent from Pearl to assist their garrisons on Midway. With that, even with the industrial prowess of the US, it would take at least another year for the US to get another carrier or more ready for action in the Pacific.
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Those PLAN warships would have to fend off repeated and continuous relief attempts by the USN over Guam on their own, apart from those long-range anti-ship ballistic and hypersonic missiles that the US could muster in the future. Remember that the majority of the PLA forces would be focused on the War of Reunification on Taiwan, so it's unlikely that the PLA could offer much significant assistance for their forces around Guam as long as the fight for Taiwan is still raging.Plus, getting that far away from the East China Sea means there would be fewer PLARF anti-ship missiles that could be used against any incoming USN warships for Guam, which would significantly increase the risks and dangers faced by the PLA around Guam.
5. Once Midway is firmly within Imperial Japanese control and the USN carriers sent for the relief of Midway were sunk, the only quick way that the US could strike back at the Japanese positions on Midway would be to fly bombers from Hawaii. USN warships would be kept away from Midway, as there is no viable naval aviation that the USN could muster to defend their warships from the IJAAF attacks based from Midway for that duration of time.
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If Guam is fully under control of the PLA, and even if the PLAN could repel all efforts made by the USN to relief Guam, the US could just rain their Minuteman ICBMs over Guam and render the island totally useless for the PLA.Those Minuteman ICBMs don't have to be nuclear-tipped - According to the Global Prompt Strike policy, the US military could just launch a couple of them towards Guam and flatten it, alongside any PLA units that are caught in the attack.
So you see, taking Guam as a distraction from Taiwan isn't really feasible for the PLA.
In my ernest opinion, if the PLA wants to guarantee the absolute success of reunifying Taiwan into the PRC through the hypothetical War of Reunification, I would rather have the PLA dedicate as much of their attention and firepower on Taiwan itself, plus against any intervention attempts by the US and her allies in the immediate Western Pacific region.
If the threats possed by Guam needs to be eliminated, China has:
1. DF-26 and DF-31 ballistic missiles;
2. H-6s and H-20s carrying bombs or long range missiles;
3. Type 093 SSNs armed with land-attack cruise missiles;
4. Type 094 SSBNs armed with JL-2s'
That can reliably waste US military installations and power-projection capabilities on Guam for a signficant period of time, with far fewer casualties on the Chinese side.
Of course, they could swap those nuclear warheads for conventional warheads, if the situation deemed that there is no need for nuclear weapons to be used.
Sorry for the lenghty blabbering, though I hope you enjoy reading my wall of texts.
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He didn't get banned, he deleted his account. I have a feeling some alphabet soup person knocked on his door.
The English Wikipedia page on the Type 094-class SSBN is terribly out-of-date.
According to my sources which includes the Chinese Wikipedia page (not Baidu Baike) on the Type 094-class SSBN, the Type 094-class SSBN has at least two variants - The original Type 094, and the improved Type 094A.
This diagram by H.I. Sutton summarizes the difference between these two variants well.
In short, the Type 094A has a higher turtleback that is used to house SLBMs compared to the original Type 094.
This means while the original Type 094 could only carry JL-2 with a 7200 kilometer-range, the improved Type 094A is capable of carrying the larger JL-2A, which is the missile you mentioned that has a range of 11200 kilometers.
As a sidenote, the Chinese Wikipedia page (not Baidu Baike) on the Type 094-class SSBN also mentioned that the Type 094A can also carry the newer JL-3, which has an even greater range of at least 12000-13000 kilometers.
The 11,200 km always struck me as a rather strange number. It's almost exactly the distance between the Bohai Sea and Washington, DC. That can't be a coincidence. I think the missile has longer range than that, but that number is given as a "word to the wise."
Does anyone know how many older DF-15/11s PLA still has in stock? and if they can be stored til 2030? it might make sense for PLA to use those against targets in Taiwan while retaining some of the more advanced 16/17s for other targets in the pacific.