A2AD is too strong, large surface combatants are currently obsolete. This means neither side can actually do any meaningful high intensity conflict in the western pacific for a while (assuming crossing large swaths of ocean, obviously land invasions can still happen). At the very least until at least one side outfits the majority of their ships with multiple 1mw+ laser point defense.
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PLA Strike Strategies in Westpac HIC
- Thread starter SEAD
- Start date
The US has been "trying to withdraw from Europe and the Middle East" for at least a decade, it has always ended up in fiascos. that is America's critical weakness, that it can't really let go of anywhere. Now the US is committing more forces to South America, it is music to China's ears.I speculate that the United States could withdraw forces from Europe and the Middle East in the future, increasing its military presence in the Indo-Pacific. It could deploy half of its aircraft carriers (most of its operational carriers) to South Asia, Guam, Australia, and Pearl Harbor. Simultaneously, it could station sufficient single-use lethal weapons—akin to those of the Rocket Force—in Japan and Okinawa, abandoning the defense of forward bases.
This does not mean that implementing these measures would guarantee a successful surprise attack by the United States. However, it would at least create the conditions for the United States to launch such an operation.
I agree this is difficult, but we may still have to consider a worse-case scenario.
Imagine a scenario like this — in 2031, China's J-36 has not yet entered service, the United States has 20 B-21s, there are five operational aircraft carriers in the Asia–Pacific, some form of Rocket Force has been deployed to forward bases, and the U.S. holds an advantage in space warfare. The United States then launches a strike against China's satellites; their Rocket Force would hit China's air defense systems; subsequently, B-21s taking off from Australia, escorted by fighters, would strike China's surface fleet, carrier-building yards, and other important coastal assets.
If this successful strike reduces China's A2/AD envelope to within 1,000 km of the coastline, then subsequent strategic bombing of China's coastal regions and shipyards would become possible.