As it has been repeatedly stated, semiconductors are not a priority.
SOF would be occupied with achieving actual strategic and tactical missions
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
SOF would be occupied with achieving actual strategic and tactical missions
By the end of this trade war, China will have nothing stopping them from taking Taiwan in my opinion. A major deterrent to a war for the past 10 years was that the US would wreck China's economy. But they're already playing all their cards now, saving nothing for later.
Once again what we do on this forum has little to no bearing with the decision making in Zhongnanhai.
It's a general comment. But it's more of a comment so that people are aware of it.
Hard decoupling was one of the strategic cards that China was holding to play against US in case war happened.
By these actions, Trump forces China to play its card prematurely. The card will still inflict immense damage, but imo it would be far more preferable if that happened during the war and everything was thrown into chaos, or even better, kept as a deterrent so that they don't do anything
By (possible) having to play that card, a sizeable deterrence force will be eliminated. Other effects will happen ofc in their domestic situation, but just talking about first order effects now
Then AR is gonna happen prematurely too.
Looks like a real conflict begins alot sooner. news media keep saying 2027. I wonder if that is true.
U.S using big tariff to completely remove China from trade. US is doing it right now to absorb the finance blow right now rather than at a date of a kinetic conflict in the future.
If China decides to remove the 34% tariff, then it will delay the conflict? Keep the talk alive and push the conflict to be much later date like 2030+.
U.S using big tariff to completely remove China from trade. US is doing it right now to absorb the finance blow right now rather than at a date of a kinetic conflict in the future.
If China decides to remove the 34% tariff, then it will delay the conflict? Keep the talk alive and push the conflict to be much later date like 2030+.
This would make sense in theory but Trump's mind can't handle 5D chess. He's been advocating for tariffs since the 80's. I think the TSMC JV and Vietnam tariffs point in that direction but he's also pummeling Mexico with tariffs... the only non-Asian labor market with good transportation links. Will it give China more latitude for armed reunification? Maybe
I think armed reunification on Taiwan is doable. It shouldnt be a challenge because of the tiny size and proximity. The problem is what will happen afterwards.
U.S might not come to Taiwan's aid. but U.S might go after China's international shipping containers. blockade or sink it? China is not in a position to protect their shipping lanes far away and they dont have bases aboard. And Japan and Korean will be armed to its teeth.
In 2040, it is different because China can match US piece by piece. It is able to project their forces globally and confidently. Is the US going to wait until then?
U.S might not come to Taiwan's aid. but U.S might go after China's international shipping containers. blockade or sink it? China is not in a position to protect their shipping lanes far away and they dont have bases aboard. And Japan and Korean will be armed to its teeth.
In 2040, it is different because China can match US piece by piece. It is able to project their forces globally and confidently. Is the US going to wait until then?