PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Neurosmith said:
The duality of Taiwan and China's geography is that their separation via a strait makes it relatively easy for either side to intercept the other's missiles. Especially cruise missiles.
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No, it's only easy for PRC to intercept ROC's missiles. When the ROC launches, if they even dare, it's just a few shoddy spray-n-pray examples of what's left in a desperate attempt to signal to America that it's fighting and worth saving. When the PRC launches, it's hypersonic missiles in droves, then total air coverage and dominance with armed assets actively hunting any resistance, especially missiles, interceptors, jets... and then when all of the ROC's defenses are suppressed, the PLA can let loose barrages of any old obsolete near-expiration crap they have left over from Soviet times and they can't be intercepted.
 
Neurosmith

Neurosmith

Junior Member
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
No, it's only easy for PRC to intercept ROC's missiles. When the ROC launches, if they even dare, it's just a few shoddy spray-n-pray examples of what's left in a desperate attempt to signal to America that it's fighting and worth saving. When the PRC launches, it's hypersonic missiles in droves, then total air coverage and dominance with armed assets actively hunting any resistance, especially missiles, interceptors, jets... and then when all of the ROC's defenses are suppressed, the PLA can let loose barrages of any old obsolete near-expiration crap they want and they can't be intercepted.
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The advantage that China has is numbers and its ability to team cruise missiles with ballistic ones.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Neurosmith said:
The advantage that China has is numbers and its ability to team cruise missiles with ballistic ones.
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And much superior missile technology... and being absolutely gargantuan so that even if anything that slips through and hits us, there's basically no effect other than pissing Chinese citizens off while the ROC's gonna be a midget taking nonstop punches to the face from a fist that's larger than its whole body.
 
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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Neurosmith said:
Debatable, but even if Taiwan did have an edge (for example's sake), that edge would be nullified by the sheer quantity that China would bring to bear.
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No, not debatable. Our missiles scare the US. We have missiles that no Western country can make. The ROC makes budget bullshit to look mildly relevant to the unknowing between the comedic bouts that they fancy as "military training."
 
Neurosmith

Neurosmith

Junior Member
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
No, not debatable. Our missiles scare the US. We have missiles that no Western country can make. The ROC makes budget bullshit to look mildly relevant to the unknowing between the comedic bouts that they fancy as "military training."
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The ROC inventory isn't anything to dismiss and the Chinese brass would be well aware of its capabilities. In rough terms, Taiwan's most capable surface-to-surface missile - the Yun Feng - seems to be somewhat analogous to the Chinese CJ-100, even as the latter makes way for more capable systems like the DF-26. The HF-3 is analogous to the YJ-12, the HF-2E the CJ-10, and their Wan Chien the AKF-98A.

My point is that, on an one-to-one basis, Taiwan's missile technology isn't that far behind China's and it is only recently that China has had the technological upper hand in this field. However, Taiwan does not have any significant ballistic capabilities aside from their ATACMs, and it is this gap that China is likely to exploit in a hypothetical conflict.
 
B

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Neurosmith said:
The ROC inventory isn't anything to dismiss and the Chinese brass would be well aware of its capabilities. In rough terms, Taiwan's most capable surface-to-surface missile - the Yun Feng - seems to be somewhat analogous to the Chinese CJ-100, even as the latter makes way for more capable systems like the DF-26. The HF-3 is analogous to the YJ-12, the HF-2E the CJ-10, and their Wan Chien the AKF-98A.

My point is that, on an one-to-one basis, Taiwan's missile technology isn't that far behind China's and it is only recently that China has had the technological upper hand in this field. However, Taiwan does not have any significant ballistic capabilities aside from their ATACMs, and it is this gap that China is likely to exploit in a hypothetical conflict.
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Beijing is about 2-3 generations ahead which is roughly the difference between Tel Aviv and Yemen's arsenals. I'd say that qualifies as "much superior" for simplicity's sake, although in practice, numbers and replacability are more important than absolute missile quality, especially in a situaition where one side is doing uncontested bombing.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Neurosmith said:
The ROC inventory isn't anything to dismiss and the Chinese brass would be well aware of its capabilities.
Click to expand...
They'll be dismissed by our missile barrage and awareness does not mean apprehension or concern.
Neurosmith said:
In rough terms, Taiwan's most capable surface-to-surface missile - the Yun Feng - seems to be somewhat analogous to the Chinese CJ-100, even as the latter makes way for more capable systems like the DF-26. The HF-3 is analogous to the YJ-12, the HF-2E the CJ-10, and their Wan Chien the AKF-98A.
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1. So they are analogous to missiles in the PRC that have far more capable counterparts to. That means they're behind.
2. What does analogous mean? Does it mean comparable in accuracy, range, and payload? What's their "analogous" missile to DF-26?
Neurosmith said:
My point is that, on an one-to-one basis, Taiwan's missile technology isn't that far behind China's and it is only recently that China has had the technological upper hand in this field.
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I didn't see that point at all. I saw you wanted to say that the ROC has missiles that are "analogous" to some missiles in the PRC that are far less capable than other missiles in the PRC. We have hypersonic glide ASBM carrier killers developed to defeat the USN in the cheapest, fastest and most efficient way possible. We have DF-41 and DF-ZF. What's the ROC "analogous" missile to those?
Neurosmith said:
However, Taiwan does not have any significant ballistic capabilities aside from their ATACMs, and it is this gap that China is likely to exploit in a hypothetical conflict.
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LOL Another gap? They have so many gaps they look like they're in jail! Too many gaps to choose from... that actually might be an ROC advantage! Too many choices can cause confusion and hesitation!
 
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R

RoastGooseHKer

New Member
Registered Member
Neurosmith said:
The duality of Taiwan and China's geography is that their separation via a strait makes it relatively easy for either side to intercept the other's missiles. Especially cruise missiles.
Click to expand...
So basically the first wave of PLA cruise and ballistic missiles would also likely be intercepted similar to how Russian ones were intercepted over Ukraine? Does that mean the PLA would have to deploy suicide drones (say the converted J6s) en masse BEFORE firing the much more expensive ballistic and cruise missiles? So by the time the BM waves start attacking, Taiwan’s SAM stocks (which are huge) would be downed significantly?
 
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