A blockade is a declaration of war. If the US Navy starts interfering with China's merchant shipping, China is fully entitled under international law to respond by hitting US Navy ships with missiles. Supersonic if close, hypersonic glide vehicles if far.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
They're gonna be removing themselves instead. China has many countries to diversify to and away from America, but there is no substitute for China. If Americans have to make things themselves instead of importing it with fake money, the quality of life will suffer tremendously in America and America depends on quality of life to attract talent because its own talent is abysmal. Everything will fall down the stairs for them.
It's not going to be a blow. It's going to be America tumbling down flights stairs to look up and find itself at the bottom.
1. No. China will lose respect from not only its citizens but all of the world that is sick of American bullying. We are literally at an inflection point where America's old allies are starting to cheer for China because of Trump.
2. I'm shocked that there are still people here who think that appeasement delays conflict. No; appeasement emboldens the enemy and makes conflict more certain and accelerates it. The more one gives in to a bully's demand, the more entitled the bully becomes and the more increasingly unreasonable demands he makes. Right now all the funny headlines coming out of the US is what you see when a country that has become extremely entitled over its unchallenged bullying for decades faces the reality of a rising superpower that stands and tells them no.
If we were not ready now, we would not have struck back.
The 34% is more of a meme. Even before that, there's not many ppl in China who want or need US products.
If a man sells cow dung on the street for 10$ and the government now introduced the great anti cow dung act of 2025 forcing ppl to pay 34% extra to buy from that guy specifically, do you think that has a big real world impact on his business? Especially if the merchant was also always rude to customers and passerbys.
Imho the devil is in the details, China didn't just give US back the same tariffs (which imo China only did because it's everyone's expectation), but also added various sanctions. These are prototype tools for enforcing a more wide ranged sanctions regime that will help halt US threat later on.
Yes, and Taiwan will likely target nuclear power plants along Fujian’s coastal areas with cruise missiles. That’s could be Taipei’s desperate measure when facing defeat.
At first I had some skepticism about the readiness to confront the US.. After reading this article, I think China is overprepared for this.
China to outnumber US jets 12:1 west of the Pacific’s 180° line
This is also on top of having the largest navy and missile force.
There is no way you can confront someone who has a 12:1 advantage in airforce. I know US has the largest airforce, but most of the planes are on US soils.
China's responses to Trump's tariffs are very calculated and focused.
1, stand up to the world bully to rally all victimized countries around it. the global South, ASEAN, and hopefully Canada, Australia and EU too will join China in this just economic war against the bully. India joining or not? well, never mind.
2, China's 34% retaliatory tariff against USA will stay unless Trump concedes defeat and comes to a comprehensive agreement package with China. But knowing Trump, he will likely double down instead of negotiating in good faith with China. Xi can then use this economic war with America to rally the country and citizens together and to harden public opinions toward the eventual showdown over Taiwan.
3, China's sanction and restrictions on Rare Earth minerals and permanent magnet export will hurt US high-tech industry and its MIC like Radars, Engines, missile seekers etc. The adverse effects on American fighting capabilities may not be immediately seen but will be readily apparent once existing stocks are used up. Some people are already attributing the delayed production of F35 to a lack of such strategic resources and minerals from China.
So IMHO everything taken together is pointing to an imminent AR, probably around 2027, and earlier if Taiwan's leadership gets desperate enough to declare independence.
1, stand up to the world bully to rally all victimized countries around it. the global South, ASEAN, and hopefully Canada, Australia and EU too will join China in this just economic war against the bully. India joining or not? well, never mind.
2, China's 34% retaliatory tariff against USA will stay unless Trump concedes defeat and comes to a comprehensive agreement package with China. But knowing Trump, he will likely double down instead of negotiating in good faith with China. Xi can then use this economic war with America to rally the country and citizens together and to harden public opinions toward the eventual showdown over Taiwan.
3, China's sanction and restrictions on Rare Earth minerals and permanent magnet export will hurt US high-tech industry and its MIC like Radars, Engines, missile seekers etc. The adverse effects on American fighting capabilities may not be immediately seen but will be readily apparent once existing stocks are used up. Some people are already attributing the delayed production of F35 to a lack of such strategic resources and minerals from China.
So IMHO everything taken together is pointing to an imminent AR, probably around 2027, and earlier if Taiwan's leadership gets desperate enough to declare independence.
I think China have done thorough preparation in these years because Trump have done this 7 years ago.
Are you done editing? LOL
Let me rephrase this for you: "I have no legitimate answers to give you so I will tell you that 'you're not worth my time' even though I have subsequently spent PLENTY of time typing inane responses meant to try and obfuscate the fact that I don't have actual legitimate responses."
ROFLMAO
How many "salvoes" of WHAT??? LRASMs? Tomahawks? LGBs? Fighter sorties? WTF are you even yapping about here? Your very question betrays such inane, rank, amateurism that it strains credulity to think that you can actually have the mentality about our interactions the way you've been fronting. I can tell you that I don't know how many "salvoes" the USN could "field" "around" China. Can you tell me how many "salvoes" the PLAN could "field" "around" Okinawa? Or Yokosuka? Or Guam? Or Hawaii? Or Diego Garcia? How many, how many, how many? If you don't know the answer, then by your own poo butt 3rd grade insinuations, you have automatically and forever lost the argument. Hahahahahahaha
Clearly in your estimation I am not self-aware. Please, enlighten me, grand poo butt wizard of enlightenment.
Clearly you're still salty from getting a verbal tongue-lashing over the last few pages. Or is the Masochism strong with you?
There will no doubt be SOME element of surprise when it comes to a Taiwan scenario, but honestly there will not be much. Preparations for invasion need to start weeks if not months prior to an actual attack. I have no doubt for example that Chinese civilian ro-ros are tracked non-stop by US naval intelligence, and if they ever starting heading back to Chinese shores in droves from wherever they currently are, or even start turning off their transponders, that's a definitive early warning clue; even if they were to try and sneakily just traffic closer to Chinese shores than normal just prior to an invasion start date, that could potentially also be detected as a deviation from the norm. Chinese troop/tank/IFV deployments are also tracked on the mainland. If they start redeploying en masse to provinces opposite Taiwan, that's a definitive early warning clue. Same thing for fighters and bombers. Same thing for ships. ELINT will be able to detect an uptick in Chinese military communications activity. Also, ideal invasion times are around April and October; any other time carries much more significant risks for the PLAN.
My guess is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will try to shorten the time interval as much as possible between the time US/Taiwan detects their intent to invade, and their actual invasion. They would not try to be sneaky about it. It would involve shutting down most or all of the country's railroad system in favor of military transport, and many highways as well, as the bulk of the PLA, PLAAF, and PLAN invasion forces around the country makes a mad dash to the coastal provinces. The ro-ros and other civilian transport ships will also make a mad dash to the coastal provinces from wherever they are. These two are the rate-limiting steps for an invasion, and they will take weeks to perhaps even months to complete. All this time is what Taiwan, the US, and Japan have to prepare for their own military interventions, if they so decide.
Not sure I understand your reasoning here. American missiles were not designed to target HGVs, yes, but as I said the same guidance systems used to target fast-moving ICBM warheads would be the ones used to target maneuvering warheads. The fact that they are maneuvering is what gives HGVs greater survivability vs ballistic fight profile warheads, but "greater" is both relative and a completely unknown quantity. How much easier is it to hit a warhead traveling a straight path at Mach 25 vs a maneuvering warhead traveling at Mach 9? How much "maneuverability" does an HGV at Mach 9 (or whatever) actually even have? As I said, I don't know, you don't know, nobody knows.
Wait, what? Do you have any evidence that "smaller known missiles" can even be quad-packed in a UVLS cell? We only have evidence of one missile type that can be quad-packed in a UVLS, the "FM-3000N", and we don't actually even know if this missile is in PLAN service right now.
Second, you have to remember that the UVLS does not have a common exhaust system like the Mk 41, which means for hot-launched missiles like the YJ-18 you will need extra volume around the missile to vent its exhaust. For cold-launched missiles you need to devote extra vertical space to house a gas ejection mechanism. So for a UVLS that does away with single-point failure issues like common exhaust mechanisms, there is still a tradeoff to be made. Now, I have no doubt that the PLAN intends to utilize the greater volume offered by the UVLS compared to the Mk 41 to advantage at some point, but we do not have evidence it has actually done so. OP wanted to insinuate that a straight up VLS comparison between countries is illegitimate (despite the fact that militaries clearly use this as a tool for comparison) because the UVLS has a larger internal volume, but he failed to recognize also that for most missile types the extra space is wasted. Have you ever seen a quad-packed HHQ-9, or even a dual-packed HHQ-9? How about a dual-packed YJ-18? Or CY-5 (or whatever ASW missile is used nowadays)? Or whatever LACM the PLAN is using?
This is just to let you know that we are laughing at you, not with you.
Not likely, there is no point. Doing so would likely reduce LCT’s ability to seek refuge, make him a hunted man, and require a number of operator’s fanatical enough to follow a suicide order. Furthermore, all of these disadvantages would be to commit an attack with a low probability of success.
The duality of Taiwan and China's geography is that their separation via a strait makes it relatively easy for either side to intercept the other's missiles. Especially cruise missiles.