PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Colby: Taiwan needs to hike defense spending to 10% of GDP


Edit: some more remarks by him but still telling to a degree (summary via a LCD post)

• Taiwan is an "important," but not "existential" interest
• Core interest is in denying China regional hegemony
• There has been a dramatic deterioration of military balance wrt China
• Don't want to engage in a futile and costly effort defending Taiwan that would destroy our military
• Taiwan should be spending 10% of GDP; need to properly incentivize them
• Colby sees as his top priority to use this time and space to rectify the problem of military balance -- need Taiwan to increase defense spending to deter China, and provide said time and space
• Conflict with China not necessary
• Also, Japan should be spending 3% of GDP

Click to expand...

00CuriousObserver said:

Colby: Taiwan needs to hike defense spending to 10% of GDP

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Sounds like he is paving the way for himself to potentially tone down on his previous position on advocating US committing to strategic clarity.

Sinnavuuty said:

Obtaining a navy twice the size of the US Navy (I assume you are talking about the current US Navy, not the future US Navy) would necessarily imply that the PLAN would be a naval hegemon in all oceans. I don't see them reaching that level even in the 2049 scenario.

Click to expand...

Hmmm... why's that? You think having a 230x shipbuilding advantage is insufficient?

00CuriousObserver said:

Colby: Taiwan needs to hike defense spending to 10% of GDP

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Edit: some more remarks by him but still telling to a degree (summary via a LCD post)

Click to expand...

He wants ta1pe1 to use 10%gdp and japan to use 3%gdp for defense spending? Will he be fine if they develop or ise local defense industry tho? That would be more beneficial for ta1pe1 in the long run, having their own in the island itself?

00CuriousObserver said:

Colby: Taiwan needs to hike defense spending to 10% of GDP

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Edit: some more remarks by him but still telling to a degree (summary via a LCD post)

Click to expand...

So essentially Taiwan will have to pay even more tribute but the US in return will provide no security guarantee? The "total annihilation" guy wants to rob Taiwan just like Trump is trying to extort from Ukraine.

AndrewS said:

The Year 2049 is 25 years away, so a lot can happen by then.

If you project out current and near-term expected production rates, you do get a Chinese Navy which is roughly 2x larger, with the exception of aircraft carriers. But I do expect aircraft carrier production to ramp up in the 2030s even more.

And in terms of resourcing, if you look at actual output of goods and services, today's Chinese economy does look like it is approaching 2x larger than the US economy.

So the key question is what margin of superiority they decide is required. Is it larger by 30%, 50%, 100%?

Click to expand...

The trend is to increase the number of larger, more capable ships produced and decrease or maintain the production of smaller, less capable ships.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Hmmm... why's that? You think having a 230x shipbuilding advantage is insufficient?

Click to expand...

No. The budget is. Unless China maintains its current long-term economic growth at a sustained pace, the Defense Operation and Maintenance budget will increasingly consume the largest share of the budget.

Sinnavuuty said:

No. The budget is. Unless China maintains its current long-term economic growth at a sustained pace, the Defense Operation and Maintenance budget will increasingly consume the largest share of the budget.

Click to expand...

Remember the real Chinese economy is approaching 2x the US already, if you ignore the undervalued exchange rate which is controlled by the Chinese government, and look at actual output of goods and services.

And the IMF/World Bank forecasts projects for the next 5 years, Chinese growth at roughly 2x the US growth rate.

So it shouldn't be difficult for the Chinese economy to build a much larger military, given time.

---

The question is how big the Chinese Navy will eventually reach?

My guess is somewhere between 30-80% larger than the US Navy

Sinnavuuty said:

No. The budget is. Unless China maintains its current long-term economic growth at a sustained pace, the Defense Operation and Maintenance budget will increasingly consume the largest share of the budget.

Click to expand...

China maintaining long term economic growth and, much more importantly, industrial and technological dominance and expansion is a given as immutable as gravity. There can be no doubt here.

Maintenance is a function of shipbuilding capacity, the reason it's unbearably expensive for the US to maintain ships is exactly the same reason it's unbearably expensive to build them. The operational costs for the US are as high as they primarily because of personnel salaries as they have to account for the massive services inflation that makes up the bulk of the US economy, and the strain of taking on missions far beyond the physical capacity of their fleet.

00CuriousObserver said:

Colby: Taiwan needs to hike defense spending to 10% of GDP

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Edit: some more remarks by him but still telling to a degree (summary via a LCD post)

Click to expand...

These points:

Taiwan is an "important," but not "existential" interest

Click to expand...

Man, Washington DC has been real hard on those DPP frogs on Reddit Island for the past week or so.

Taiwan should be spending 10% of GDP; need to properly incentivize them

Click to expand...

Also, Japan should be spending 3% of GDP

Click to expand...

Once again a reminder than China's defense budget/spending has never rose past 2% of her GDP for more than 2 decades. Imagine China spending 3%, 5% or even 10% of her GDP on her military LMFAO