Maybe Colby has been browsing r/LCD and thought that a certain member’s screen name had a lot of merit?
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Maybe Colby has been browsing r/LCD and thought that a certain member’s screen name had a lot of merit?
Just an often overlooked question:
Where are the smaller shipyards in China that western PLA watchers do not regularly visit (i.e. there are no satellite images on a regular basis)?
If there is a plan to change status quo in the next couple of years, one of the critical requirements would be to bulk up the fleets of medium sized amphibious ships. Most of those would be LSM, LST, large LCAC, things like type 072 versions. All those vessel types ranging between a few hundred to a few thousand tonnes, which can easily traverse the 80-200 nm trip.
If the PLA were discreet (I think any well thought out plan would need to be), then any lead time activities would only be taking place at these rarely monitored locations. And we may not find out until a large number of them has been launched. And most of these types of vessels don't need shipyards that focus on ocean going vessels.
Where are the smaller shipyards in China that western PLA watchers do not regularly visit (i.e. there are no satellite images on a regular basis)?
If there is a plan to change status quo in the next couple of years, one of the critical requirements would be to bulk up the fleets of medium sized amphibious ships. Most of those would be LSM, LST, large LCAC, things like type 072 versions. All those vessel types ranging between a few hundred to a few thousand tonnes, which can easily traverse the 80-200 nm trip.
If the PLA were discreet (I think any well thought out plan would need to be), then any lead time activities would only be taking place at these rarely monitored locations. And we may not find out until a large number of them has been launched. And most of these types of vessels don't need shipyards that focus on ocean going vessels.
Looks like Taiwan is also practising for China's 80th anniversary of Victory over Japan parade.
I could see spending in China going to 10%+ if economic/diplomatic defeat on US fails and US successfully pulls a Crimea in Taiwan province. It would be a pearl harbor moment x100. China might draft everyone 25-30, put global embargo on US + allied aggressors, then sweep up to mainland USA like Soviet army to Berlin.
That is just not realistic.
You're talking about 50 million males in that age range. Can you imagine trying to equip and resupply such an Army?
And these days, it makes more sense to use a lot more robots or drones.
It would mostly be an air-sea conflict, but remember that it takes time to build up a Navy.
Instead of more over-the-beach amphibious ships like LSTs, it looks they've gone with the bridging ships which can "dock" along any road or firm ground.
So these can be used by Ro-Ro ships, which can carry so many more vehicles, and many Ro-Ro ships already exist.
For contrast, even a Type-072 LST only carries like 10? vehicles. In comparison, a typical Ro-Ro can carry 300? military vehicles
So the combination of a [single Ro-Ro Ferry] + [single new bridging ship] would be equivalent to 30 LSTs.
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CSIS is also reporting that 70 Ro-Ros will be delivered to Chinese companies between 2024-2026, but I'm not sure how many would be suitable. Many of them could carry thousands? of vehicles.
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However, beach-landing amphibious ships are still needed to land the initial wave. LSTs and the special-purpose barges are not mutually exclusive, as you'd need to secure and defend the beach-head before using barges and RoRos.