PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

HardBall

New Member
Registered Member
Instead of more over-the-beach amphibious ships like LSTs, it looks they've gone with the bridging ships which can "dock" along any road or firm ground.

So these can be used by Ro-Ro ships, which can carry so many more vehicles, and many Ro-Ro ships already exist.

For contrast, even a Type-072 LST only carries like 10? vehicles. In comparison, a typical Ro-Ro can carry 300? military vehicles
So the combination of a [single Ro-Ro Ferry] + [single new bridging ship] would be equivalent to 30 LSTs.

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CSIS is also reporting that 70 Ro-Ros will be delivered to Chinese companies between 2024-2026, but I'm not sure how many would be suitable. Many of them could carry thousands? of vehicles.


While possible on some undefended coastline, it would be hard to believe that there would be such an opportunity given the ISR resources available today. Most likely no matter where they land, it would be immediately contested. And the landing crafts would all come under some form of fire initially.

There would need to be at least two waves, probably more, before any type of civilian ships can be brought into the combat zone. An initial landing to gain a foot hold, then a reinforcing wave to expand the perimeter to at least a few nm. At that point, with some terrain features, you might be able to get to a point where there isn't any enemy direct fire on the landing spot (howitzers are always possible, but tha's unavoidable).

Then you can bring in civilian equipment. But within the first 24 - 48 hours (depends on how long it takes them to do round trips), it would be insane to put civilian ferries to use there.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
While possible on some undefended coastline, it would be hard to believe that there would be such an opportunity given the ISR resources available today. Most likely no matter where they land, it would be immediately contested. And the landing crafts would all come under some form of fire initially.

It looks like entire Western coastline of Taiwan is covered with coastal roads.
There is simply no way that all of this area can be defended.

So in addition to landings on contested beaches, they could also land in these undefended areas.

There would need to be at least two waves, probably more, before any type of civilian ships can be brought into the combat zone. An initial landing to gain a foot hold, then a reinforcing wave to expand the perimeter to at least a few nm. At that point, with some terrain features, you might be able to get to a point where there isn't any enemy direct fire on the landing spot (howitzers are always possible, but tha's unavoidable).

Then you can bring in civilian equipment. But within the first 24 - 48 hours (depends on how long it takes them to do round trips), it would be insane to put civilian ferries to use there.

My guess is that there is enough amphibious lift for the combat elements of 4? Army Amphibious Brigades.

So each Brigade should be able to secure a beachhead, and then follow on forces could arrive.

Prior to any beach landings, I would expect the entire area to be sanitised by airborne drones, so the landing forces should be able to make fast progress.

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Remember that Chinese Ro-Ro ships have been built to military specifications in order to handle heavy military vehicles.
And I'm not sure how you could make Ro-Ros any more survivable, because they don't have compartments on the vehicle decks.

Plus you could also use those bridging ships and allow LSTs to offload their vehicles directly on a paved road.

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We'll just have to see if they do build more LSTs and LSMs
 
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