PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[HardBall]

Instead of more over-the-beach amphibious ships like LSTs, it looks they've gone with the bridging ships which can "dock" along any road or firm ground.

So these can be used by Ro-Ro ships, which can carry so many more vehicles, and many Ro-Ro ships already exist.

For contrast, even a Type-072 LST only carries like 10? vehicles. In comparison, a typical Ro-Ro can carry 300? military vehicles
So the combination of a [single Ro-Ro Ferry] + [single new bridging ship] would be equivalent to 30 LSTs.

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CSIS is also reporting that 70 Ro-Ros will be delivered to Chinese companies between 2024-2026, but I'm not sure how many would be suitable. Many of them could carry thousands? of vehicles.

While possible on some undefended coastline, it would be hard to believe that there would be such an opportunity given the ISR resources available today. Most likely no matter where they land, it would be immediately contested. And the landing crafts would all come under some form of fire initially.

There would need to be at least two waves, probably more, before any type of civilian ships can be brought into the combat zone. An initial landing to gain a foot hold, then a reinforcing wave to expand the perimeter to at least a few nm. At that point, with some terrain features, you might be able to get to a point where there isn't any enemy direct fire on the landing spot (howitzers are always possible, but tha's unavoidable).

Then you can bring in civilian equipment. But within the first 24 - 48 hours (depends on how long it takes them to do round trips), it would be insane to put civilian ferries to use there.

 

[AndrewS]

While possible on some undefended coastline, it would be hard to believe that there would be such an opportunity given the ISR resources available today. Most likely no matter where they land, it would be immediately contested. And the landing crafts would all come under some form of fire initially.

It looks like entire Western coastline of Taiwan is covered with coastal roads.
There is simply no way that all of this area can be defended.

So in addition to landings on contested beaches, they could also land in these undefended areas.

There would need to be at least two waves, probably more, before any type of civilian ships can be brought into the combat zone. An initial landing to gain a foot hold, then a reinforcing wave to expand the perimeter to at least a few nm. At that point, with some terrain features, you might be able to get to a point where there isn't any enemy direct fire on the landing spot (howitzers are always possible, but tha's unavoidable).

Then you can bring in civilian equipment. But within the first 24 - 48 hours (depends on how long it takes them to do round trips), it would be insane to put civilian ferries to use there.

My guess is that there is enough amphibious lift for the combat elements of 4? Army Amphibious Brigades.

So each Brigade should be able to secure a beachhead, and then follow on forces could arrive.

Prior to any beach landings, I would expect the entire area to be sanitised by airborne drones, so the landing forces should be able to make fast progress.

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Remember that Chinese Ro-Ro ships have been built to military specifications in order to handle heavy military vehicles.
And I'm not sure how you could make Ro-Ros any more survivable, because they don't have compartments on the vehicle decks.

Plus you could also use those bridging ships and allow LSTs to offload their vehicles directly on a paved road.

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We'll just have to see if they do build more LSTs and LSMs

 

[peekaboo]

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"Taiwan detected 11 Chinese balloons near the island in a 24-hour period, said its Defence Ministry on March 7.

The balloons were spotted along with five Chinese aircraft and six warships in the 24 hours to 6am, the ministry said in its daily report. It was the highest number of balloons recorded, according to an AFP tally of the data dating back to December 2023."

 

[Kich]

What would be some signs that Taiwan is secretly trying to build a nuke?

They don't have nuclear power plants so they would have to ship most of the materials.

Asking this because a cornered animal is very dangerous. With US seen as retreating by her allies and China getting stronger, I think many in Taiwan will consider this.

I have my own opinion as to why even if Taiwan builds a nuke, it won't save them because of:

• not enough quantities to threatened China
• declaring them will start a war so they won't even function as a deterrent
• losing support international

Eager to read the discussions that result from my question.

 

[Biscuits]

What would be some signs that Taiwan is secretly trying to build a nuke?

They don't have nuclear power plants so they would have to ship most of the materials.

Asking this because a cornered animal is very dangerous. With US seen as retreating by her allies and China getting stronger, I think many in Taiwan will consider this.

From nothing to a test takes years. From a test to a finished warhead takes years. From a finished warhead to credible delivery takes years. From single credible delivery to second strike capability takes decades or never. Each step requiring massive resources and leaving behind large footprints.

Taiwan is under total surveillance by Beijing. I don't see this as a possible threat, it is as or more unlikely as Palestine getting nukes under Israel's nose.

There might be a minor risk of Japan pursuing nukes, but imho the chances are still very small, less than the chances of Iran acquiring nukes.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Just a slight correction.

They don't have nuclear power plants so they would have to ship most of the materials.

They do. One in southern Taiwan went up in flames just yesterday, though the reactor structure itself likely isn't affected by the fire.

 

[zyklon]

Taiwan has been thoroughly penetrated by the Chinese intelligence community: not just the military and elected officials, but also the bureaucracy, segments of the media, and of course: key industries.

As it stands, there's no plausible scenario where the authorities in Taipei can actively pursue a nuclear weapons program in any meaningful way without Beijing finding out in advance prior to the completion of a deployable device.

The only way (that I can think of) for Taipei to possibly acquire a deployable device without Beijing finding out in advance is for Taipei to more or less receive a completed device from a third party. Both ends of such a hypothetical transaction would have to be highly compartmented to avoid compromise. However, it's all rather moot as who'd sell a nuclear weapon to Taipei in the first place?!

Ultimately, if Taipei so much as tries to acquire nuclear weapons, Beijing will find out, and then either Trump will tell it to stand down or the PLA will bomb its defense industrial base into oblivion. Don't see it going any other way . . .

What would be some signs that Taiwan is secretly trying to build a nuke?

They don't have nuclear power plants so they would have to ship most of the materials.

Asking this because a cornered animal is very dangerous. With US seen as retreating by her allies and China getting stronger, I think many in Taiwan will consider this.

I have my own opinion as to why even if Taiwan builds a nuke, it won't save them because of:

• not enough quantities to threatened China
• declaring them will start a war so they won't even function as a deterrent
• losing support international

Eager to read the discussions that result from my question.

 

[Aval]

What does "ready" even mean? There will always be a bit more time China could wait to be able to kick the US's ass epsilon harder. If you define it as simply a resounding victory in a Taiwan/1IC conflict, well, you compiled all of Patchwork's posts, you should know very well they're more than capable of that already, and my own opinion is the PLA can also be confident of a decisive victory in a broader conflict within the 2IC in a couple years time. Even US copium peddlers admit the US will be at a vulnerable "nadir" of capability in the late 2020s (they're just wrong about where the trend goes after that).

A Nation needs to be complete, unified. Taking Taiwan is the first goal.

A Great Power wants their sphere of influence. Expunging American influence from East Asia (and possibly the entire Western Pacific) is the second goal.

A Superpower wants no peers. Pushing the US out of the World Island and back to the Americas, or possibly neutralising them as a polity altogether, is the third goal.


We don't know how China assesses its own capabilities and its goals, and the former in relation to the latter. Only the first goal is really publicly acknowledged, the other two are speculation from historical trends. Its possible China may not aspire to them at all, but there's I'd argue there's nothing more predictable than a millennia-old civilisation with the mode of humanity. But what we can say is that China is not a militaristic civilisation and would prefer to avoid military conflict, so if it has go to war it should aim to achieve as much as possible in one go. There's no stomach for a century of offensive military campaigns, neither in its society nor its political culture.

There's also the possibility they'll turn ideological and aim to influence the world at the behest of ideology rather than national interests (many a communist have hopes for a Chinese-led global revolution in the 21st century). I personally believe that's unlikely though.

 

[hkky]

Many decades ago Taiwan tried to make a nuclear bomb. The Institute of Nuclear Energy Research was established as a front to conduct such activities. It has a hot-cell capable of handling irradiated fuel, but it was discovered by the US and was shut down. The last time I visited the place about 15 years ago, capabilities were being dismantled and people today are moving to conduct research in renewable energy (and spent fuel dry storage). So it is unlikely they can make a bomb without anyone noticing.

 

[Aval]

Even if the US is not involved, there would still be a conflict, albeit a smaller one. The Chinese would likely take steps to minimize the risk of US involvement.


I'm surprised at how many members here believe that the Chinese would preemptively attack US forces in the Pacific. The greatest barrier to a successful Taiwan campaign is US intervention, and attacking US assets would be a sure-fire way to ensure that.

Even if the US provides support to Taiwan through intelligence and surveillance, I doubt that China would retaliate kinetically out of fear of US intervention.

And let's not get into the hypotheticals of how China could "defeat" the US in the Pacific because that's not a gamble that China's leadership would be willing to take.

I believe current discourse has moved onto whether or not that gamble would be one the Chinese leadership is now willing to take. Because after all, the increased risk of that gamble also leads to greater potential rewards (securing 2IC or even entire WestPac rather than just the 1IC).

Its a dangerous road to take, for sure. But the trend of international politics leans towards pushing for as much as you can and settle/negotiate when you can't go any further.