PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Overbom said:
Official deadline is 2049.


The public could hold their nose and give time until 2049 as that's the official date, but only if there has been very credible and serious progress towards that, with a visible and viable future path towards unification by the deadline. Anything else than that and indeed, by mid-2030 at latest, there would be big political legitimacy issues.

CPC said great rejuvenation by 2049. CPC has staked it's entire political legitimacy into that. Failing to achieve that, nevermind any political spin, people would question legitimacy. And as all historians know, the moment the public starts openly questioning the current ruling power's legitimacy, political collapse is not long after. I am sure Xi, and the Party know their history and Marxist lessons quite well.

Economic development, tech, military powa, yada yada. Everyone praises big strong China but little Taiwan Province can't be unified into the mainland lol. From the farmer in Tibet, to the Shanghai elite, CPC will be a joke to everyone whenever any random official or politician comes out and talks about China's strength.
Wouldn't be surprised if people even make it into a meme similar to India's Supapowa situation


Nevertheless, thats a bit too long term and (imo) underestimates the CPC too much, to discuss now. People should be afforded chances based on past execution and history. CPC has fully convinced me that it is a political actor which is competent, patriotic, non-corrupt, and can plan and execute plans and tasks successfully.

For such a large and competent organization, I think it's a bit unfair to underestimate their future actions so much. Worst scenario should always be accounted for, but that doesn't mean that it is also the most probable

I maintain the belief that the CPC's final task for Xi is to either achieve reunification with Taiwan or make significant progress towards it. I think Xi knows this, and will take necessary steps to accomplish this.

Don't forget what Xi has said about Taiwan. Past unresolved problems shouldn't be left to future generations to solve. Take that as you may
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When Pelosi landed on the Taiwan Island a few years ago, the youngest member of the Guancha gang wrote a post on Weibo: 形势和人心都出了问题. (and his account promptly got cancelled) His attitude represented many young Chinese netizens' at the time.

Yes, CPC is very competent and can manage public discourse up to a point, but unlike what Western propaganda says, it is not a totalitarian government. It can't control public sentiment, especially from the younger generation. CPC's legitimacy was already questioned openly back then.

I don't think reunification can be pushed back more than 5 years.

On the PLA capability issue, unlike some members here, I firmly believe it can dominate the West Pac in a few years, as long as it has enough munitions to wipe out all the infrastructures on the First Island Chain.
 
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FriedButter

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
vincent said:
Yes, CPC is very competent and can manage public discourse up to a point, but unlike what Western propaganda says, it is not a totalitarian government. It can't control public sentiment, especially from the younger generation. CPC's legitimacy was already questioned openly back then.

I don't think reunification can be pushed back more than 5 years.
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It could go beyond 5 years as long as it remains stable. If the opposing side doesn’t engage in a blatant provocation then public sentiment will remain dormant and manageable. But it will become more difficult to manage over a longer time frame. As the newer confident generation replaces the older generation. The next provocation that may have been recoverable several year ago might be beyond the point of recovery for public sentiment.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
FriedButter said:
It could go beyond 5 years as long as it remains stable. If the opposing side doesn’t engage in a blatant provocation then public sentiment will remain dormant and manageable. But it will become more difficult to manage over a longer time frame. As the newer confident generation replaces the older generation. The next provocation that may have been recoverable several year ago might be beyond the point of recovery for public sentiment.
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DPP will never stop their provocations.
 
S

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Derpy said:
If Trump throws Ukraine under the Bus i think the DPP will become very careful in their statements and actions.
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I don't think so. Everyone knows that Ukraine support was never a fundamental bi-partisan consensus in the US like Taiwan is.

I've been hearing about "DPP becoming more careful" for this reason or that reason for years already, and what happened?

Any kind of "peaceful reunification", even "peaceful coexistence" is based upon some wishful thinking, not real-world signs.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
plawolf said:
America has already gone all in on its full commitment to contain and dominate China. So as soon as it looks like China is on course to achieve such a position, America will trigger the war to fight while they still have some chance of winning.
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I don't see this happening.

If the US recognises that it can lose to China, then the US starting and then losing such a war is far worse than the alternative of a gradual decline.


plawolf said:
This is a core reason why China has not made any massive sudden leaps in defence spending in recent years despite massively increased and more overt American hostility. China is maintaining a delicate balancing act of closing the military balance of power difference as rapidly as it can without making America feel it needs to trigger the war immediately. But eventually, no matter how careful China goes about it, it will reach a point where America feels it needs to move on China while it still can, and that tipping point will be well before China attains conventional military parity with America.

This is why so much of China’s investment is actually on the production facility side rather than churning out weapons themselves.
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I would say that we see large leaps in military procurement levels in China.

Look at Navy and Air Force annual procurement of major military systems.
At a minimum, China is at parity. In some cases, Chinese procurement rates are 2x higher.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Brigadier
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
Given control of the media, I think they can manage public opinion.

All you have to point out is that a war will have definite economic consequences for China.
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Look at what happened at the end of Covid. You overestimate the CPC's ability to manage public opinion.

　我们的方针再正确，如果不被群众理解，也难以贯彻施衙。如果群众不听，你就先跟着群众走，群众跳火坑，你也跟着跳下去。群众觉悟了，从火坑里爬出来，最终还是要跟你走。群众跳，你不跳，干群关系就疏远了。你一起跳，感情上拉近了，工作就好做了。新形势下群众工作的特点是什么？一个重要特点是，群众的民主意识、自我维权意识增强了。

　　对此，我们要讲两句话：第一句话，干部要相信和依靠群众，但又不能做群众的尾巴；第二句话，干部要教育和引导群众，但千万不能站到群众的对立面。
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Deepseek translation of Xi's line
No matter how correct our policies may be, they will be difficult to implement if the people do not understand them. If the masses refuse to listen, you should first follow their lead. If they leap into a fire pit, follow them in. Once the masses awaken to the truth, they will climb out of the pit and ultimately follow your guidance. If they jump but you hold back, the bond between cadres and the people will weaken. By jumping alongside them, you build trust and closeness, making your work more effective.

What defines mass work in the new era? A key characteristic is the heightened awareness among the people of their democratic rights and self-advocacy.

In addressing this, we must emphasize two principles:

  1. Cadres must trust and rely on the masses, yet avoid becoming passive followers.
  2. Cadres must educate and guide the masses, but never position themselves in opposition to them.

Key Notes:​

  • Metaphors: Retained phrases like "fire pit" to preserve the vivid imagery, while ensuring the meaning remains clear (e.g., "awaken to the truth" for 觉悟).
  • Tone: Balanced formality to reflect the original’s authoritative yet pragmatic advice.
  • Concepts: Translated terms like "自我维权意识" as "self-advocacy" to capture both rights protection and proactive agency.
  • Structure: Broke down complex sentences for readability, while maintaining rhetorical parallelism in the two concluding principles.
This translation aims to resonate with English-speaking audiences familiar with governance and leadership discourse.
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A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
coolgod said:
Look at what happened at the end of Covid. You overestimate the CPC's ability to manage public opinion.
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I don't see how that is relevant.

The default situation is the status quo and continuing as before.
Implementing COVID controls is a change to the status quo, and therefore needs agreement.

In the case of Taiwan, going to war is the change.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Brigadier
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
I don't see how that is relevant.

The default situation is the status quo and continuing as before.
Implementing COVID controls is a change to the status quo, and therefore needs agreement.

In the case of Taiwan, going to war is the change.
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There was a public sentiment that wanted to open up during late 2022, this meant a total relaxation of covid controls. This is the change.
Similarly there is a public sentiment for armed reunification, this is the change.

There are/were factions inside the party which greatly opposed these changes, but in the end the changes came. I quoted Xi's lines which were used to justify these changes by following the masses, regardless of the CPC leadership's internal opinion.
 
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