PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
If the US recognises that it can lose to China, then the US starting and then losing such a war is far worse than the alternative of a gradual decline.
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No, because there is no "gradual decline" case for the US, as the US won't be able to last 5-10 more years today if they don't bet everything on collapsing China in this presidency instead, and it succeeds.

They need to start a totally new wave of global plunder/looting of the world, as in the post-Cold War years, to be able to survive while funding such a strong oligarchy at the top and having such strong deficits.

They are in a sovereign debt doom loop, I guess folks here don't follow the current parabolical trend of their debt levels and how embarrassingly they are beaten by China across all domains and the rate of de-dollarization.

The only solution for the US is to become a global hegemon again like in the 90s that can fully dictate to countries how much US debt they need to fund, under which rates, that they can't trade in other currencies, what they can or can't produce, which technologies they need to abandon or transfer to the US, and many other things.

Better 50% of winning the war chance, in their heads, although I place that on maybe some single-digit one, than waiting a few more years until everything collapsed without you even giving it a shot that you could.

You are very biased, for some reason, on this topic in thinking that the US doesn't want the war, why are they working overtime to provoke China then, you are not making any sense. Why do they provoke them then if the end goal is not to cause a direct war?

Do they want to give Taiwan to China for free perhaps? That's why they provoke China to grab it for years? This doesn't follow any basic logic.

AndrewS said:
All you have to point out is that a war will have definite economic consequences for China.
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Yes, but you are not pointing to the economic benefits. And you are overstating the danger that the US presents to China.

Or you are understating the level of provocations that the US has been doing and will be doing shortly after fixing internal politics?

One of my theories is that the oligarchs that control the US simply decided to support Trump against the Deep State because waging war on China precisely is better done under way more centralized government.

After that consolidation is done, you will see the resumption of provocations worse than ever. Sometime after mid-terms.
 
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V

votran

New Member
Registered Member
Derpy said:
If Trump throws Ukraine under the Bus i think the DPP will become very careful in their statements and actions.
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can't reunited the island in time if PRC keep waiting them making mistake first , specially after this trump ukraine drama , those islander gonna be even more careful

at some point PRC need to be actively and suddenly "remove" that island "silicon shield"

both manufacture and people aka let no one work for tsmc escape via airplane before missile come via no fly zone

and then lauching the main assault

for US and western society today : tsmc is the only reason for US/west able to rally their people/allied calling for holy war crusaders again china

without it , there are no chance for US/western society/people today develope the will to fight / accept casualties for the greater good

oh i forgot : there are one more way

china fall into the pearl harbor shock trap , preemptive strike toward US base on SK , japan , australia , guam , okinawa , hawaii first
Iron Man said:
I don't think so. The US can start a war with China at any time it wants to. There are so many ways to push China's buttons and force it into a war against its wishes. The US doesn't do this because it doesn't want to. Years before it was the risk of nuclear escalation; now it's probably both the risk of nuclear escalation as well as the risk of losing a conventional war. You have to remember that the US didn't view China as a true threat until the last several years, certainly less than the last 10-15 years, and within that time the Chinese military had already grown very substantially. I think nowadays it's just a matter of the US hoping and praying that AR is delayed into the distant future as it doesn't want to be dragged into a war with China over Taiwan. But local politics and other circumstances beyond its control may force the US to confront China militarily even though I think it doesn't really want to.
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local politics hawk can force but they don't have enough propagranda power to trigger "all american unity magic spell" easy anymore

american society today wasn't american society in 40s anymore , way less self suitain , way less production power , way lower basic unity level ...also way more stupid arrogance thinking their military tech still the best can easily cakewalk china without much loss

to make it easier to understand :

i can say US society in 40s still easily help their military win in the end even in case US navy lost badly at mid way (because all american unity spell buff)

today ? no chance

so .... : the only way US can afford a total non-nuclear war with china today is lure china into correctly pre-setting : pearl harbor shock trap unprovoked strike by PRC military killing thousands american/allied service member

only that pre-setting scenario not any other such as :

both side already go to war and US/allied society still not sure they are the pure good guy got hit first or not and then US navy suffer a big naval battle lose similar as midway without doing much dmg to the enemy

that kind of humiliation defeat today have no chance trigger all american unity effect like 40s anymore instead it may trigger all american mentality collapse...
 
R

RoastGooseHKer

New Member
Registered Member
Serb said:
I don't think so. Everyone knows that Ukraine support was never a fundamental bi-partisan consensus in the US like Taiwan is.

I've been hearing about "DPP becoming more careful" for this reason or that reason for years already, and what happened?

Any kind of "peaceful reunification", even "peaceful coexistence" is based upon some wishful thinking, not real-world signs.
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To add onto this argument, the very reason why Donald is giving Putin a free hand in Ukraine is so that the good olde USA could concentrate all resources to deal with China. The only issue for Donald is how much Putin is willing to reciprocate. Trump is an offensive realist following Mearsheimer's playbook when it comes great power politics.

Also, has anyone every wondered that the PLA itself could be holding Taiwan's silicon shield at risk, meaning that should tensions escalate beyond the 2022 level and turn hot, the PLA could strike Taiwan's chip foundries (along with Taiwan's offensive military capabilities and energy infrastructures), effectively taking away one of Taiwan's most powerful bargaining tools.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I personally think with Trump in charge there is opportunity for an unprecedented salami slice on Taiwan.

Maybe we could have PLAAF regularly conducting patrol flights in Taiwanese airspace, overflying the island.

The only thing that is needed is a good excuse. Hopefully someone in Trump administration or a hawkish Congress member can give one. I greatly doubt that Trump could come forcibly on this if it appears that the US provoked China
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
vincent said:
When Pelosi landed on the Taiwan Island a few years ago, the youngest member of the Guancha gang wrote a post on Weibo: 形势和人心都出了问题. (and his account promptly got cancelled) His attitude represented many young Chinese netizens' at the time.
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And my read is that during the Pelosi episode - the prospect of a war was met with deep concern by a large majority of people in China.

vincent said:
Yes, CPC is very competent and can manage public discourse up to a point, but unlike what Western propaganda says, it is not a totalitarian government. It can't control public sentiment, especially from the younger generation. CPC's legitimacy was already questioned openly back then.

I don't think reunification can be pushed back more than 5 years.

On the PLA capability issue, unlike some members here, I firmly believe it can dominate the West Pac in a few years, as long as it has enough munitions to wipe out all the infrastructures on the First Island Chain.
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China dominating the Western Pacific and the First Island Chain is not sufficient.

It may be that an actual China-Taiwan war happens, but this will potentially derail China's rise.

But the solution is to build a blue-water Navy that can control global sea lanes.
Note that China is on track to do this, but it will take at least 15 more years.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Serb said:
No, because there is no "gradual decline" case for the US, as the US won't be able to last 5-10 more years today if they don't bet everything on collapsing China in this presidency instead, and it succeeds.

They need to start a totally new wave of global plunder/looting of the world, as in the post-Cold War years, to be able to survive while funding such a strong oligarchy at the top and having such strong deficits.

They are in a sovereign debt doom loop, I guess folks here don't follow the current parabolical trend of their debt levels and how embarrassingly they are beaten by China across all domains and the rate of de-dollarization.

The only solution for the US is to become a global hegemon again like in the 90s that can fully dictate to countries how much US debt they need to fund, under which rates, that they can't trade in other currencies, what they can or can't produce, which technologies they need to abandon or transfer to the US, and many other things.
Click to expand...

Look at the decline of the UK or France for example, which was accompanied by numerous financial crises.

I'm very well aware of the US debt situation, but the likely crisis will simply be part of that gradual US decline over the decades.

The US becoming global hegemon again simply doesn't work when there is a multi-polar world in terms of economics and technology.


Serb said:
Better 50% of winning the war chance, in their heads, although I place that on maybe some single-digit one, than waiting a few more years until everything collapsed without you even giving it a shot that you could.

You are very biased, for some reason, on this topic in thinking that the US doesn't want the war, why are they working overtime to provoke China then, you are not making any sense. Why do they provoke them then if the end goal is not to cause a direct war?

Do they want to give Taiwan to China for free perhaps? That's why they provoke China to grab it for years? This doesn't follow any basic logic.
Click to expand...

Whilst there are elements in the USA who want a war, they are definitely a small minority.

Taiwan provocations are very effective as a pressure point against China, which is why it happens.


Serb said:
Yes, but you are not pointing to the economic benefits. And you are overstating the danger that the US presents to China.

Or you are understating the level of provocations that the US has been doing and will be doing shortly after fixing internal politics?

One of my theories is that the oligarchs that control the US simply decided to support Trump against the Deep State because waging war on China precisely is better done under way more centralized government.

After that consolidation is done, you will see the resumption of provocations worse than ever. Sometime after mid-terms.
Click to expand...

We can see that the American Tech oligarchs have deep connections to China.
Just look at Apple, Nvidia and Elon Musk for example.
They will lose trillions in a war.

I don't think American internal politics can be fixed. There has been a long slide over the past decades, with the 2 parties really hating each other.

And we can see the American government bureaucracy has become politicised with purges if you're on the wrong side of the government that happens to be in power. This is in addition to the purges against the "Deep State"

After the mid-terms, we'll probably see the Republicans lose control of the Senate and/or the House.
So the US government will be more divided than today, not more centralised.
 
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