PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

I think people underestimate how fast one of these “exercises” can become real literally on a dime. They happen so often that they are not even publicized anymore, indicating that they are the new routine going forward. As a very wise man once noted in a comparison to another tumultuous period during Chinese history:

Meanwhile, when Emperor Wen asked Gao for tactics in preparing to conquer Chen, Gao suggested harassing Chen's border regions in two ways: sending troops on exercise without actually attacking, to cause Chen's farmers to be on alert and unable to farm and causing Chen's guards to be down when an actual attack would come; and to send spies to burn Chen's border farmlands. Emperor Wen agreed, and these tactics helped damage Chen's resistance capabilities.

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We are seeing a similar thing happening with the encirclement exercises. ROC assets are being worn down trying to intercept PLA assets during the exercise. Their guard is relaxed due to the routine nature of the exercises. Their ranks are being infiltrated with mainland spies. All of which are happening as PLA improves jointers between the three branches and enhances familiarity with the actual theater of combat.

There is also credible rumor that conventional ground troops stationed in Fujian have begun close quarters combat training in urban areas. Make of that what you will.

Serb said:

Do they want to give Taiwan to China for free perhaps? That's why they provoke China to grab it for years? This doesn't follow any basic logic.


Yes, but you are not pointing to the economic benefits. And you are overstating the danger that the US presents to China.

Or you are understating the level of provocations that the US has been doing and will be doing shortly after fixing internal politics?

One of my theories is that the oligarchs that control the US simply decided to support Trump against the Deep State because waging war on China precisely is better done under way more centralized government.

After that consolidation is done, you will see the resumption of provocations worse than ever. Sometime after mid-terms.

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Yes, I do sense China going to war with US in the next few years and US loses that war !

Now the question is will US escalate into a Nuclear War ?

vincent said:

You are delusional if you think reunification can wait till 2049. Hell, even mid-2030’s is a stretch.

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I think US is acting plotting war against China and China is secretly plotting war against US and entire West !!

I do sense full blown nuclear war in the next 3 years or so !

Iron Man said:

I don't think so. The US can start a war with China at any time it wants to. There are so many ways to push China's buttons and force it into a war against its wishes. The US doesn't do this because it doesn't want to. Years before it was the risk of nuclear escalation; now it's probably both the risk of nuclear escalation as well as the risk of losing a conventional war. You have to remember that the US didn't view China as a true threat until the last several years, certainly less than the last 10-15 years, and within that time the Chinese military had already grown very substantially. I think nowadays it's just a matter of the US hoping and praying that AR is delayed into the distant future as it doesn't want to be dragged into a war with China over Taiwan. But local politics and other circumstances beyond its control may force the US to confront China militarily even though I think it doesn't really want to.

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Disagree !

Look at Trump's action ! He is purging the democrats, even in the Pentagon !

He wants a centralized government so that he can wage war !

plawolf said:

My strategy involves taking the fight to the Americans and their vassals, so the bulk of the fight and damage will be done over their territory. There is even a reasonable chance that if the PLA victory over the Americans is overwhelming enough, that Taiwan will surrender without putting up much, if any fight, thereby saving countless Chinese lives on Taiwan island, and also means China takes Taiwan back large intact instead of as a bombed out ruin.

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Agreed !

The instant when China sense that its red line is about to be crossed China should take the FIGHT to America's slaves colonies such as Europe, japan and SK, even india !

1. Arm Russia and help Russia take Eastern Europe and force the NATO including US into a war ! (This will also Instantly Double China's Nuclear Arsenal As Russian Nukes will be fighting on China's side if full blown nuclear war breaks out ! With this, means the combined, Chinese, Russian, North Korean Nukes, well over 10,000 warheads enough to completely destroy the entire world TWICE ! If Nuclear War Breaks Out, Ensuring That China Can NOT Lose !)

2. Give North Korea the go ahead to attack South Korea and force US into another front !

3. Invade and take over the entire South east Asia and open another front on the indian ocean !

4. Provide weapons and nukes to Iran and let Iran attack and destroy Isreal (America's Zonist Master), this will force US to divert even more of its forces to save its master !

5. When US's military is destroyed by Russia, NK, Iran and its resources ran out, China wins the fight without even having to take taiwan !!

All China do, is go 100% military weapons production mode and supply its allies with weapons and munition and do the fighting at the same time !!

Overbom said:

I personally think with Trump in charge there is opportunity for an unprecedented salami slice on Taiwan.

Maybe we could have PLAAF regularly conducting patrol flights in Taiwanese airspace, overflying the island.

The only thing that is needed is a good excuse. Hopefully someone in Trump administration or a hawkish Congress member can give one. I greatly doubt that Trump could come forcibly on this if it appears that the US provoked China

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I believe that the next Chinese action is to carry out a temporary quarantine, if Beijing is provoked as it was in 2022.

3SonsAndaPhD said:

Disagree !

Look at Trump's action ! He is purging the democrats, even in the Pentagon !

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Democrats are at least as hawkish as or even more than he is towards China. What are you even talking about? Him purging the "Democrats" in Pentagon has literally nothing to do with gaining more personal power and everything to do with fulfilling campaign promises to root out DEI in the military.

3SonsAndaPhD said:

He wants a centralized government so that he can wage war !

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No. Just no.