PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

AndrewS said:

As per Steve Hsu's recent podcast, the Chinese consensus is that China needs to help manage US decline and not get into a war.

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Steve Hsu is an American patriot. His views on China should be taken with a grain of salt.

FriedRiceNSpice said:

Why should China burden herself. China just needs to make China great and create a prosperous and safe society for all her citizens.

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I do think this is an actual issue. The Chinese government would certainly prefer not to deal with the rest of the world's problems. (It's a mess!) But there's going to be an increasing amount of pressure from the rest of the world for China to play a more active role. It'll be a tough optimization problem for China -- how to appease the global south and keep the world stable-ish while spending the least amount of money and effort.

Moonscape said:

I do think this is an actual issue. The Chinese government would certainly prefer not to deal with the rest of the world's problems. (It's a mess!) But there's going to be an increasing amount of pressure from the rest of the world for China to play a more active role. It'll be a tough optimization problem for China -- how to appease the global south and keep the world stable-ish while spending the least amount of money and effort.

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The Chinese have figured it out a long time ago. It's called 朝贡体系, sorry I mean community with a shared future for mankind

AndrewS said:

Trump wants a world safe for autocracy
Financial Times

"So it seems entirely likely that Trump will eventually betray Taiwan just as surely as he has betrayed Ukraine.

The rumour mill in Washington is already buzzing with talk that the US will threaten to impose tariffs on Taiwan unless it agrees to sell a significant chunk of TSMC"

ft.com/content/452d7f83-fcce-424a-9d6d-4493b0112ec8

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Taiwan should not sell. They just want to get the only thing that they are still concerned about of value out of Taiwan before pulling away completely.

vincent said:

Steve Hsu is an American patriot. His views on China should be taken with a grain of salt.

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Yes

But still, that is what he reported from his conversations in China.

Taiwan’s coastguard has detained a cargo ship and its Chinese crew after an undersea cable in the Taiwan Strait was damaged on Tuesday, saying it cannot rule out the possibility it was a deliberate “grey zone” act.

RedBaron said:

Taiwan’s coastguard has detained a cargo ship and its Chinese crew after an undersea cable in the Taiwan Strait was damaged on Tuesday, saying it cannot rule out the possibility it was a deliberate “grey zone” act.

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all crews member of this ship are chinese , currently being detained in taiwan
if PRC let this shit slide "peaceful way" without giving those bastard some humiliation lesson , this event gonna be a huge slap in the face for PRC grovernment/navy

this is taiwan did the arrest not US remember that , entire global south watching now

...we understand you guy being soft toward US such as pelosi event because they still stronger , but this isn't US navy arrest your ship

it an island still offically have war with PRC grovernment and military/navy . no peace treaty sign yet

dirtyid said:

Can someone try to crunch napkin ordnance math, 100xB21s with charitable 60% availabilty rate flying 40+ hours missions delivers about ~300s tons per day to Pacific Theater. Or roughly what a large carrier delivers on non surge tempo. Trying to guestimate if B21 fleet can replace lost fires from multiple CVNs and seems like it's not even close, as in fraction of what US+co delivered during peak Iraq War, granted munition quality is better now.

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Let's see this differently.
China has a fleet of 230 H-6 as of 2020, with a dozen more being build each year. (If someone can give me the 2024 number it would be great.)
Assume:
-China use 100 H-6
-J-20 can escort H-6 up to 2000km of the Chinese coast.
-Air launched CJ-10 has a range of 2500km
-6 missiles per H-6
-H-6 only make one sortie per day

That's 600 cruise missiles into the US bases in the 1st and 2nd island chain per day. For reference the US launched about 800 Tomahawk during the entire Iraq War and the US only make 650 patriot missile per year.
US will get wipe out of Asia within the first days, they won't be able to do anything after that.

votran said:

all crews member of this ship are chinese , currently being detained in taiwan
if PRC let this shit slide "peaceful way" without giving those bastard some humiliation lesson , this event gonna be a huge slap in the face for PRC grovernment/navy

this is taiwan did the arrest not US remember that , entire global south watching now

...we understand you guy being soft toward US such as pelosi event because they still stronger , but this isn't US navy arrest your ship

it an island still offically have war with PRC grovernment and military/navy . no peace treaty sign yet

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Perfect excuse to list Taiwan coastguard as terrorist and take back admin control of the sea around the island.

RedBaron said:

Taiwan’s coastguard has detained a cargo ship and its Chinese crew after an undersea cable in the Taiwan Strait was damaged on Tuesday, saying it cannot rule out the possibility it was a deliberate “grey zone” act.

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Maybe coincidental, w regards to news of US plans on chinese ships/shipbuilders?