PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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He would have been overthrown by his underlings. Separatism was not politically acceptable in ROC back then.
Chiang would have thrown himself overboard. No one in that KMT leadership ever believed there should ever be two Chinas. They weren’t just elites looking for a kingdom to rule. The entire point of their political existence was one whole China restored to its original borders.
the goal of US grovernment / both party / even reddit is to lure china preemtive-attack on US base in either okinawa , japan , SK , guam ,hawaii
in order to trigger american unity moment like pearl harbor , without all american unity element with current US politics/economy/military production situation , no way US can afford a war with china
i notice this by lurking around internet watch every US/china expert/talk show/reddit discussion about us-china war issue . they are all the same , expect or find a away to bait china cause a shock toward american society > allow whole country united together like ww2 pacific threater > fix the military/economy issue
anyway attacking base in KR and japan first may not good idea , but fucked up those US cocksucker philippines gonna be great
reason :
1/ those cocksuckers weak and poor as fuck but very loud on internet
2/ they have treaty with US but their valueable so fucking low to the point not much different than deadbed south vietnam during 70s
3/ because 1 and 2 . there are no way US bother to honor the treaty if everything china did was just some "teach a lesson" attack
such as :
destroy all their navy , all US weapon place there , include their only "new warship without missile VLS because no money" from south korea , their F/A-50 trainer air fleet that cost them decades of saving lmao
china attack on those fuckers also not strong enough for south korea , japan , australia to distrust and stop being lapdog for US > even less reason for US to start ww3 with china
4/ doing this also send a solid message for all SA nations : you aren't south korea or japan . forget about US saving in case you dare to piss off china
reason :
1/ those cocksuckers weak and poor as fuck but very loud on internet
2/ they have treaty with US but their valueable so fucking low to the point not much different than deadbed south vietnam during 70s
3/ because 1 and 2 . there are no way US bother to honor the treaty if everything china did was just some "teach a lesson" attack
such as :
destroy all their navy , all US weapon place there , include their only "new warship without missile VLS because no money" from south korea , their F/A-50 trainer air fleet that cost them decades of saving lmao
china attack on those fuckers also not strong enough for south korea , japan , australia to distrust and stop being lapdog for US > even less reason for US to start ww3 with china
4/ doing this also send a solid message for all SA nations : you aren't south korea or japan . forget about US saving in case you dare to piss off china
Yeah I think the best time for peaceful reunification was when KMT had full uncontested control and were ruling Taiwan and wanted a reunited China but under their rule(that could have still changed with time, I don't think they would have stayed in power forever or even for long) . I believe things could have been negotiated between both sides with some concessions made for a peaceful reunification. I think it would have been better for CCP to make concessions to allow reunification and when the country is reunited and under one China they could have slowly changed laws and taken over the territory sovereignty more slowly a la Hong Kong without any fear of outside intervention.
They left things too late to talk of peaceful unification today and which each passing year it only gets worse, since the younger generation is growing in a quasi independent state and with different mindset and no memory of ever being part of China unlike the older generation. So yeah I think time for peaceful reunification is gone except some unforseen contingencies happen in future.
So I believe barring some extraordinary circumstances, China would have to fight to regain Taiwan by force.
You mean Jiang Jingguo era? LMFAO no. Deng offered them to co-rule China but they declined in arrogance. As a very wise man once said — they could’ve been the Third Eye in the Three-Eyes Alliance but opted instead to become its butthole.
Actually peaceful unification never had a chance even under KMT. In the early 1980s, Deng Xiaoping attempted to reach out to Chiang junior under the one-country two systems formulas. But compared to the HK formula, the KMT was even allowed to keep its troops. In other words, the PRC would have sovereignty over Taiwan in name only.
However, the junior Chiang responded with "no contact, no negotiation and no compromise" (不接觸，不談判，不妥協). Instead, facing domestic opposition from pro-independence Taiwanese natives, Chiang relinquished KMT's dictatorship and permitted the establishment of the DPP as we know today, driving Taiwan even further away from peaceful unification. As Taiwan becomes a 'liberal democracy', whilst more and more Taiwanese no longer had familial or cultural ties to the Mainland, one could argue that peaceful unification was dead as of 1987 (when KMT's dictatorship officially ended).
Looking back, Chiang sacrificed the KMT regime but preserved the survival of KMT as a political party. Unlike his father, the junior Chiang had saw Taiwanese independence as a EVEN lesser evil compared to unification on terms favourable to the CPC (albeit his father also opposed negotiations with CPC but was simultaneously staunchly opposed to Taiwan independence). Meanwhile, following the normalisation of the US-PRC relations in 1979, Taiwan was in a weak but not-so-weak position. Yes, Taipei was very isolated (with Apartheid South Africa being its closest ally), and its nuclear programme was gutted by Washington on purpose. However, the PLA back in the 1980s lacked even the capabilities to fight a naval battle against ROCN (not to mentioned amphibious assault). Knowing that the PLA would lack the ability to take Taiwan for decades to come, the junior Chiang had a free hand to 'democratise' Taiwan without worries of potential invasion. In fact, one could argue that even if Taiwan were to declare independence in the 1980s, Beijing had little leverages. Beijing's existential threats back then the USSR and its lackey Vietnam. The Taiwan issue had to be put aside. Relationship with the US had just been normalised. Taipei - despite lacking major diplomatic recognitions - has an asymmetrical diplomatic advantage (which it held until quite recently).
Assuming the proposition that the US cannot "afford" a war with China without a "unity moment" is true, being ready means being prepared for such moments to occur, even if the odds are incredibly low.
As a simple example, even without a first strike, one cannot assume that a US carrier won't be sunk and that its loss won't result in a "unity moment".
I don't think so. The US can start a war with China at any time it wants to. There are so many ways to push China's buttons and force it into a war against its wishes. The US doesn't do this because it doesn't want to. Years before it was the risk of nuclear escalation; now it's probably both the risk of nuclear escalation as well as the risk of losing a conventional war. You have to remember that the US didn't view China as a true threat until the last several years, certainly less than the last 10-15 years, and within that time the Chinese military had already grown very substantially. I think nowadays it's just a matter of the US hoping and praying that AR is delayed into the distant future as it doesn't want to be dragged into a war with China over Taiwan. But local politics and other circumstances beyond its control may force the US to confront China militarily even though I think it doesn't really want to.